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VMware, Inc. Message Board

financefrau 30 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 29, 2015 6:11 AM Member since: Feb 4, 2010
  • Reply to

    Short Term Technicals

    by financefrau Apr 9, 2015 8:52 AM
    financefrau financefrau Apr 9, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    Failed in that zone. Looks like it's going to take another stab at it.

  • financefrau by financefrau Apr 9, 2015 8:52 AM Flag

    If AAPL can get through 126.15-126.46 intraday resistance, wouldn't be surprised to see a $2-$3 pop. A lot of resistance up there, though, which I would be surprised to see a break through before earnings. That daily resistance will be a mini wall ----128.98 to 131.05.

  • Reply to

    2 STEP PATTERN RIGHT HERE

    by financefrau Mar 25, 2015 3:10 PM
    financefrau financefrau Mar 25, 2015 4:15 PM Flag

    Symmetry did not hold. There is one other grouping where the zone would include lower Fibonacci levels. With that zone, the 2 Step would still be viable (though not nearly as promising before) with the last ditch support line of 123.25. If the 2-step played out, the target would be 130.84.
    Major resistance at 126.27-127.01 is in the way.
    Not good. A great April earnings call is the only thing that's going to get this stock back on track.

  • financefrau by financefrau Mar 25, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    NEEDS to hold 123.95. IF it does, there is a unique 2-step pattern into that support line that could generate a decent rally. If it doesn't, not good.
    For those interested, it comes from the 129.25 high to 125.16 low (4.09 move down). You draw that 4.09 decline from the 128.04 high we had yesterday and it gives you 123.95. It's called symmetry support, and it's powerful.
    Not to get too technical but there are 2 key Fibonacci numbers just above it to make it a 2 step pattern.

  • financefrau financefrau Mar 25, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    NEEDS to hold 123.95. IF it does, there is a unique 2-step pattern into that support line that could generate a decent rally. If it doesn't, not good.
    For those interested, it comes from the 129.25 high to 125.16 low (4.09 move down). You draw that 4.09 decline from the 128.04 high we had yesterday and it gives you 123.95. It's called symmetry support, and it's powerful.
    Not to get too technical but there are 2 key Fibonacci numbers just above it to make it a 2 step pattern.

  • financefrau financefrau Mar 25, 2015 7:44 AM Flag

    I called resistance at 128.04-128.23 if we didn't make a newer low (which we didn't). 128.04 was the high yesterday, and it failed exactly there.

    Be careful on AAPL. The stock isn't in the clear if it breaks the 128 zone; it's just on a better track. AAPL would then need to clear the daily resistance at 129.58. If it can do that, and that's a big if the way AAPL has been trading the last couple of weeks, then it targets 136.86. I'm long, so not a doomsayer. It's trading very similarly off the highs of 2012, though, and history does repeat in charts.

    I didn't take my own advice on selling calls/ buying puts yesterday. Should have. I hope to get a small bounce today to do it.

    And just on principle, thumbs down? There are so many completely ignorant posts on this website. I know my stuff...take it as a piece of information for your trading.

  • Reply to

    It can't even come back to 127.50

    by frank_capra_04 Mar 23, 2015 11:12 AM
    financefrau financefrau Mar 23, 2015 4:33 PM Flag

    He's right on resistance. 128.04 and 128.23 is immediate resistance. And even more above. Lower lows and lower highs since 133 means the stock is susceptible to even lower lows and lower highs. AAPL needs to take out 129.58 by a good margin to look really good again.

  • I'm a technical trader and nervous. That take out today was not good at all for the stock. Im sure it had something to do with quadruple witching hour and with traders manipulating, but AAPL needed to hold 126.43 and it didn't.

    I think it's going to be downhill until April's earnings. The Chinese New Year and a big dividend increase with a huge stock buyback better be in the cards; otherwise, we could be looking at a long slog down from 133. Hate to think of 2012, but I now am.

    By the way, assuming we hold today's low, we need to clear 128.04 and 128.23 to get back on track. Mark those numbers down. If we go lower than today's low, though, throw the piece of paper out. Good luck to all.

    Update: High today of 127.85 so didn't get through that resistance. And we didn't have a lower low, so keep the 128.04-128.23 resistance lines. The stock was on a nice course up until the ugly drop in the last couple of minutes (another last minute dive). That drop actually adds more resistance in the 127s.

    It appears AAPL is in an uphill battle technically. I wouldn't be surprised to see 119 before we see 133 again. I'm long on fundamentals. Just nervous on technicals. If we break below the 127.01 low we had at the end of the day, think it's time for buying puts and selling calls.

  • Reply to

    What happened at 3:48pm???

    by bigkahuna1333 Mar 20, 2015 3:59 PM
    financefrau financefrau Mar 20, 2015 4:42 PM Flag

    I'm a technical trader and nervous. That take out today was not good at all for the stock. Im sure it had something to do with quadruple witching hour and with traders manipulating, but AAPL needed to hold 126.43 and it didn't.

    I think it's going to be downhill until April's earnings. The Chinese New Year and a big dividend increase with huge stock buyback better be in the cards; otherwise, we could be looking at a long slog down from 133. Hate to think of 2012, but I now am.

    By the way, assuming we hold today's low, we need to clear 128.04 and 128.23 to get back on track. Mark those numbers down. If we go lower than today's low, though, throw the piece of paper out. Good luck to all.

  • The biggest takeaway of the earnings call was growth in China. CHINA.
    Have these guys ever heard of the Chinese New Year, which is in February?
    If they have, they should read this:

    "Spending on gift-giving by Chinese luxury consumers down a further 5%, totalling 30% over two years. Consumer electronics, led by Apple, was the gift of choice, overtaking LV and last year’s Number One Hermes, which dropped down to seventh. Moutai shoots back into Top 10 after two year ‘holiday’. Red wine had a poor year, dropping down to third place in the preferred gift. Watches rose to second place, although especially for watches worth less than CNY 20,000. Overall spending crept back up to the levels of two years ago."

    So we have the Gold iPhone 6 this year, and watches next year. A duh.

    Bonus: the possibility of bringing all that cash home on the tax proposal.

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