Why would Oppenheimer/CFO make such a declaration re offering a guidance range - for the first time - that they believed achievable? IMO, they will make this number, otherwise Oppenheimer loses all cred.
IMO, Apple will continue to trade between 420 and - if we're lucky - 450 until earnings. At that point, every long term holder needs to hold on tight for hopefully an up ride or (at the very least) a flat course. If earnings are bad, the 3 handle will hit us all hard, except of course for the 2% of short sellers.
My feeling is Apple will make their revenue guidance. Why else would Oppenheimer make such a big deal about declaring a range they thought they would hit? All bets should really be on what the NEXT guidance will be.
So my advice: don't get sick watching AAPL drop to 420 and don't get excited watching it rise to 450. Most analysts are saying Apple is a "second half of the year story". If you have faith (which I clearly do), be happy with a little dividend increase, and hope/pray the CFO comes through with guidance to show Apple really is a second half of the year stock.
Any ideas why isn't Apple up this am then? It's actually looking to open down....seems WS isn't making the same upbeat conclusion on quarterly sales.
I'm a UBS client ... I just emailed them b/c there are no new analyst reports under Apple, i.e. that it has been moved to some UBS Preferred Stock List, though I'm not denying CNBC's report. The UBS analyst has a buy rating on the stock but lowered his price target (again) on March 15th from $600 to $560. Here's the ending paragraph of his note:
Valuation: Lower PT from $600 to $560
On our lowered estimates and target multiple, we reduce or price target to $560
from $600 vs our lowered target multiple of 8.5x our F13 EV/FCF or 10x our F13
EPS less current cash of $137bn.
I guess it makes sense to be on a list as it would be a 20% up move from today. Think it's weird though that they just keep cutting the price target .... seems none of the analysts are giving any credit to Apple for their innovative abilities. It's all short term, hardline results, and even then, analysts are giving them a below-the-market PE variable. Think they all got caught by the irrational market and are covering their #$%$ big time. IMO.
I don't think it will get a 10% pop immediately. Maybe 3% on Monday and and a total move up of 10% by earnings is doable. Then it's up to Apple to deliver, otherwise the nightmare continues.
Apple sent out a release on the Sunday before March 19 to announce last year's dividend/buybacks. If they had done the same timing this past Sunday, that would have been less than a year to the date (Monday was March 18). So maybe, just maybe, they always wanted the Monday am announcement and really needed to wait a full year before upping the ante. If that's the case, then the stock will be positioned in an excellent jump-off and up point.... just below the 50 DMA. We will get a huge push on Monday, and hopefully - soon enough - this 4 handle will be a distant nightmare.
Who knows? But I prefer to live my life as the cup is half full:)
I looked up last year's announcement. Cupertino sent out a press release on Sunday, March 18, 2012 announcing a press conference for Monday, March 19, 2012 at 9am EST. So - assuming they do this week (please) - best chance is for a press release tonight. If they go the same route as last year, maybe we get another Sunday night release and announcement Monday, March 25. Or we could keep waiting for Godot-vidend.
I own Apple, and I truly believe if Tim Cook was more of a cheerleader, the stock would be in the 600s rather than the current 400s. Apple barely missed on their quarterly release and the sky fell. TC just doesn't have upbeat optimism to instill confidence about the future. Moore has to deliver, though, and soon. Cheerleading without numbers won't cut it for much longer.
and with above average volume. I would say that today was (finally) a good day for FLML. We've had so many bad ones; it would be nice if this was the start of a big up move.
Cook is marching to his own drumbeat, that's for sure. Apple had better announce this week, otherwise I expect a slide....would be a shame to fall back into that longterm downtrend b/c of management's lack of urgency.
All I can say is thank goodness Moore is a cheerleader. Without the promise of the future, we could have seen a 5 handle today.
I've actually been saying that the announcement will come this week for a while ... not during the shareholder meeting that so many were saying. The company itself has said something will come... just logical that they would wait 1 year to announce the next div/bb.
Need to break through that number to get out of long term downtrend. Tomorrow's news will hopefully come, but now it needs to be big enough to not disappoint. I'm not sure that the Bloomberg "survey" really helped the cause. Personally, I would like to see a HUGE buyback with the message that the stock is cheap so they are going to up the EPS with the buyback. Market seems to want a $16 div. Both would be fantastic and would get us up to the $500s by earnings time.
NEED 453.76 to break out of LONGTERM DOWNTREND! Strong div/bb announcement will get us there. Timing is sooooo good to blow thru. We just have to hope that Apple goes strong ... a 10% div increase will drop the stock. Now that Bloomberg set the bar with their "survey", we need a big number.
Apple gave guidance of $41-$43billion. I believe a lot of the street sees them just eeking the number or missing; that negativity had been priced into the stock. The CFO was clear that he was giving a true range, so hopefully they don't screw something up and hit it. If (big if), Apple can hit the high side of guidance, e.g. $42.5 to $43, and - (not so big an) if they announce a significant buyback with some div increase, then expect the $500s to be back in favor this spring.