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Brookdale Senior Living Inc. Message Board

financefrau 27 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 24, 2015 11:40 AM Member since: Feb 4, 2010
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  • This is a tough decision. Hold through earnings or sell? My gut says hold on the fundamentals. But what if AAPL doesn't hit the whisper number. What if currency moves sideswipe them? What if the Apple Watch battery really is an issue and the launch of "early" 2015 becomes "mid" 2015. The stock is not priced for perfection... an all-time high would be that, but historically, AAPL is priced aggressively.

    Mathematically, the weekly options are pricing for 45% implied volatility x standard deviation of 5/365days or .117 x 112.98 closing price. That gives you a move of $5.95. Back-of-the-napkin method (add at the money call + at the money put + otm call (114) + otm put (112) = 3+3+2.55+2.57 or 11.12 / 2 = 5.56. For simplicity, let's say it's a $6 move up or down by Friday. It's a 2 out of 3 chance that we'll see that move. So that gives you a price per share of $107 or $119. $107 breaks a lot of support, which could bode poorly for more downside. $119 means a move to $123.86 (Fibonacci target) is back in sight.

    Verdict? A collar would be prudent. I'm going to wait till Tuesday. A move up in price before earnings - which I'm expecting - could mean a $6 drop after earnings would then hold some key support. That's key for a bigger picture, eventual move up to Fib's $123.86 target.

  • Reply to

    Great seeking alpha article

    by svchiro Jan 23, 2015 12:17 AM
    financefrau financefrau Jan 24, 2015 12:44 AM Flag

    I'm sorry, I don't understand these posts. How are you seeing this article and other SA Pro subscribers are not? My broker has access to Pro and there was no Flamel article as of this afternoon.

  • financefrau by financefrau Jan 21, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    Short term target for AAPL is $115.44.
    Bigger picture target on the daily chart is $124.11.
    There is definitely resistance on the way up, with $113.14 being a big one.
    I called Fib targets way back when the stock was down, and they hit. AAPL follows Fib pretty nicely, so you might want to mark these numbers.
    Also, for chartists, take a look at the AAPL weekly chart and the 4/9/12 high to 5/21//12 low. That move is very similar in price and time to the 11/26/14-1/6/15 swing we just had. After the 2012 downswing, the stock took off, where it blew through the first Fib target and almost hit the second. History repeats on charts. If it does here, we'll see $124 plus. FYI $129.41 is the second Fib target on the daily chart.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Technical Update

    by financefrau Jan 15, 2015 2:56 PM
    financefrau financefrau Jan 16, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    Not bad:)

  • financefrau by financefrau Jan 15, 2015 2:56 PM Flag

    The chart - though an uphill battle - took out some key short-term resistance. Specifically, it rallied for more than it had from the 19.30 high made last week. The stock pulled back into support today and is moving up again (currently 12.40).

    The short term target off this swing is 13.84 and 14.33. A news shock will obviously blow this up or down, but for now, realistic TECHNICAL goals are high 13s/low 14s.

    Fundamentals are a whole other story.

  • Reply to


    by financefrau Jan 14, 2015 3:10 PM
    financefrau financefrau Jan 15, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    Good news is it's going to this target. The bad news is there's a 2-step now the other way into resistance. For that to NOT play out, we need to clear 12.68 to 12.75.

  • Reply to

    Check This Document Out....5 Year Exclusivity

    by financefrau Jan 14, 2015 8:03 PM
    financefrau financefrau Jan 14, 2015 8:33 PM Flag

    I saw that as well, but why did they then fill out Part II regarding 5-Year Exclusivity?

    scroll down a few pages...5 Year Exclusivity...Anderson signed it.

  • Reply to


    by helloagain789 Jan 14, 2015 4:46 PM
    financefrau financefrau Jan 14, 2015 7:03 PM Flag

    It got an NDA approval - NEW drug application approval. By definition, it's New, right?

  • Reply to


    by russianmule2000 Jan 14, 2015 5:15 PM
    financefrau financefrau Jan 14, 2015 6:59 PM Flag

    I know someone who called their offices....they said they're "working details out and would formally announce in a day or two." Seems very odd to me. What details? Either approved or not approved.

    Maybe they found out earlier than expected, and it leaked before they were ready with a press release. That's just a guess.

  • Reply to


    by financefrau Jan 14, 2015 3:10 PM
    financefrau financefrau Jan 14, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    got stuck at the 11.88 resistance noted above, but it was a minor pullback, and then started to move back up before the close. Would have been nice to clear it today, but at least we got a higher high at the end of day.

  • Reply to


    by financefrau Jan 14, 2015 3:10 PM
    financefrau financefrau Jan 14, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    There was good support at 9.21 from the monthly chart. Needs to clear 11.88-11.93..but 2 step may play out. Would give it momentum to move up into 12.21 or hopefully 12.75.

  • financefrau by financefrau Jan 14, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    There's a shot at 12.21-12.75 here. FLML just moved in a "2-step" pattern.

  • financefrau by financefrau Dec 4, 2014 7:53 AM Flag

    UBS has a new in-depth report out on all the oil stocks. Highly leveraged companies, including OAS, are clearly the losers. Despite that, UBS maintained a buy at these levels and reduced their price target from $51 to $30. At this point, I would love $30.

    They had reported in November (as I posted here) that with bad execution, bad luck (e.g. weather, well output) and $70/bb, the stock would trade at $24. So I guess, everything has to be firing on all cylinders.

  • Reply to

    after hours volume/price

    by cannon32383 Dec 2, 2014 4:09 PM
    financefrau financefrau Dec 2, 2014 7:03 PM Flag

    some guy tweeted an energy rally after hours...check house Yahoo Finance OAS news.

  • UBS Note/Early Nov - In addition to downward oil price movements our downside case scenario assumes: 1) disappointing execution, unplanned downtime or adverse weather condition in the Williston Basin lead to a downward revision to 2013 production growth; 2) disappointing Lower Three Forks well results limiting prospectivity for deeper zones on a portion of OAS’ acreage. Under this scenario which assumes strip prices and $70/Bbl WTI with a multiple of 0.8x, we could see OAS' downside valuation at ~$24/share.

  • Reply to

    Shale Producers at $42/bbl return cash

    by financefrau Nov 30, 2014 9:00 PM
    financefrau financefrau Dec 1, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    heard that their debt is going to kill them. thanks.

  • Reply to

    Shale Producers at $42/bbl return cash

    by financefrau Nov 30, 2014 9:00 PM
    financefrau financefrau Dec 1, 2014 7:25 AM Flag

    CNBC reporting 60s this am. I don't know ... thoughts?

  • Yahoo Finance and Bloomberg both reporting that the "International Energy Agency estimates most drilling in the Bakken formation -- the shale producers that OPEC seeks to drive out of business -- return cash at $42 a barrel."

  • financefrau by financefrau Nov 30, 2014 8:53 AM Flag

    UBS put out a note in early November saying WTI of $70 bbl combined with disappointing execution and disappointing results from their current wells, would warrant a share price of $24. So we have $66/bbl - with fear for lower - but not disappointing execution/results. UBS then put out a note on Friday saying WTI will continue to be under pressure but should get back to the $80s in the second half of 2015. If $80 is seen again, then $53 is the price target.
    I'm not a hedge expert, but if OAS has short term hedges in place, the HOPE (which is not a great word to use in investing) is they can ride these 6 months down and come back. Definitely, though, does not seem bankrupt able when $70/bbl gave the analyst a $24 price target.
    I'm looking to hold and possibly sell calls and buy puts for the next 4-6 months. If the stock continues to get pummeled, I'll make money down. If I get called away at a low price, so be it; I'll take the loss. If there are rumblings of WTI moving up before getting called away, I'll stop selling the calls and hope (ugh, there's that word again) for the rebound back to $53.

    Sentiment: Hold

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