Maybe this is why Apple should be rewarded. They hit their conservative estimates, pay a great dividend and make a ton of cash. Why aren't all the high flyers moving into this steady eddy - which also happens to have big upside? The only time AAPL "missed" was when the analysts mistakenly overlooked the shortened sales quarter. Everyone talks about IBM - which also just missed - and JNJ.
I don't know if he needs to be ousted ... the company is executing on the products they have. And he has promised a new category product in 2014 so innovation is coming. Cook just has Wall Street against him (from his own doing), but I believe the negativity can be turned around with the right coaching.
Guidance is our only hope. Maybe the new CFO will be an optimist. I have written to every Board of Director as well as to Nancy Paxton (Investor Relations @ Apple) that a public relations guru needs to COACH COOK to speak positively - with specific and concrete comments - during the next conference call. My PR letter requests were actually threefold: 1) refute major media errors, 2) get Ive out on the media trail, and most importantly 3) coach, coach, coach Cook for the earnings calls. Coincidentally, #1 and #2 did actually occur after my letters (Cook spoke out against the Wall Street Journal reporter/author, and Ive gave big interview for the first time in a long time). We need #3 to happen, though, in a big way.
I'm pretty certain by letters were tossed in the trash, but it's always nice to hope.
Weekly support is at $10.14...let's all hope it holds that. If we can stay above this low ($10.38), technically at least, the stock targets $15.92.
Look at GM and Twitter after earnings. GM is a lot more like Apple and clarification & confidence today by the CEO has really helped the share price. It's in the black now! Not TC, though. He buries his head the day after. It's pathetic. He may be a great tactician, ops guy, but they need charisma at the top. Let him be Head of Operations and get someone to sell the vision in tangible (as opposed to TC's oblique) ways.
I am sending a letter (close to what I recently posted via Investor Relations Part 1 and 2) today to every board member. My hope is that the message sticks with one of them. The message - in a nutshell - is that Tim Cook needs world-class coaching when speaking on conference calls. He needs to bag the oblique b.s. that leaves analysts both scratching their heads and #$%$ off (I wrote that in a nicer way). The letter begs for a best-of-the-best p.r. firm ---both for Cook/Oppenheimer and to get a polished and genuine Apple exec (think a well-coached Johnny Ive) on the media trail for the occasional pop. I know the basis for the stock is earnings/gross margins/etc. But Bezos, Benioff and Musk sell their stories. Cook thinks the stock will sell itself, and his disregard for Wall Street is punishing the share price. The best example in Monday's call: "What Luca is saying is that we’re working on things that are things that you see that we’re shipping today but that we’re working on things that you can’t see today.” My 2nd grader could do better than that!
I received a personal reply from Nancy Paxton: "Thank you for your feedback". That felt good, not. I sent a note to Icahn, really. That will go nowhere, too, but I like your idea about the lead director. I'm on it!
part 2 was a little cut off but you get it. Would love if "regular" shareholders flooded Apple with "Tim Cook Needs Coaching" emails!
2) "It’s never been stronger. I’m very confident with the work that’s going on, and I think our customers are going to love what we’re going to do.” VERSUS "In the Q2 conference call, I noted that Apple will be delivering a new-category product in 2014. Though this isn’t the forum to announce a specific date, we are thrilled that the product launch is imminent and we are excited for both our customers and shareholders on delivering an awesome new product with substantial new revenue streams."
3) "What Luca is saying is that we’re working on things that are things that you see that we’re shipping today but that we’re working on things that you can’t see today.” VERSUS - Anything would have been better than this. This line was evasive and inane …. my bet is that it officially ticked off every analyst who had just upgraded Apple’s price targets.
4) "So we’re a big believer in buying back the stock, and that doesn’t change today, whether the stock goes up or down.We’re always buying back stock.” VERSUS “Based on the products we will be launching - both on product upgrades and brand new category launches - we see the stock price as undervalued, and yes, these current levels are great opportunity to buy back shares."
The line in the sand for tech analysts is not just delivering the best product — it’s delivering the future, which is exactly what a share price is based on Last night, Tim Cook lost the analysts, the media and shareholders. It is Apple’s responsibility to right the ship. So please, COACH Mr. Cook and Mr. Oppenheimer on delivering messages that are clear and that offer details on the future. To this point, I strongly urge you to replace your pr firm with the best firm out there. The right publicist will put an Apple star on the media trail to speak about Apple’s future in a positive, genuine and concrete way (think Johnny Ive with public speaking capabilities). Moreover, true p.r. professionals will finally prepare Cook and Opp
Time after time Apple blows “record numbers” with horrible delivery in their earnings calls, and it is this delivery that is consistently hurting Apple's share price.
To: Nancy Paxton
Tim Cook NEEDS coaching. He is optimistic, but he offers the most cryptic and politician-like answers of any CEO I have ever heard. All shareholders realize some level of secrecy is necessary for a technology company, but Cook’s level is beyond the pale. Investors, analysts and the media are tired of hearing how full the pipeline is and how Tim Cook has never been happier with the innovation at Apple. After four years of product upgrades without a new category, his promise of the future is no longer respected. Cook needs to deliver a message with substantive remarks; I repeat substantive remarks. Examples of the opposite:
1) "The mobile payments area in general is one that we’ve been intrigued with, and that was one of the thoughts behind Touch ID. But we’re not limiting ourselves just to that. So I don’t have anything specific to announce today, but you can tell by looking at the demographics of our customers and the amount of commerce that goes through iOS devices versus the competition that it’s a big opportunity on the platform.” —— VERSUS — “ When looking at the demographics of our customers and the amount of commerce that goes through iOS devices, we have a huge opportunity in the monetization of mobile payments and we expect to deliver on that program in the next 6-12 months.” And definitely get rid of the word intrigued. It sounds like you are just thinking about it and not creating anything.
Problem now is he put a floor on it, and his floor is gone. I'm very long and afraid we are now going to see a 4 handle.
Flip side of GS - showing the 2017 enthusiasm - is UBS - Jan 13, 2014 Reiterates Buy: Thoughts on the stock: Growth story robust; Buy on weakness
A raise to 2015 and 2017 targets was expected, although the increases were fairly
robust in magnitude, in our view. We believe the stock weakness today is attributable to the below-consensus 2014 EPS guidance. However, at this point, it is unclear to us what is included and excluded from 2014 guidance (apremilast, EU Pomalyst, collaborative payments, etc), which we expect clarity on today at the sell side lunch with management. Either way, the 2014 investment in apremilast should yield returns, and the 2015 and 2017 targets reaffirm the robust organic EPS growth story that we think is reasonably priced and scarce at this market cap. We reiterate our Buy rating.
Valuation: Buy, $200 PT based on 19.7x our 2015e EPS
Our model includes front line use of Rd in EU in 2015 (but not transplant maintenance).
I'd be a lot more confident if GS hadn't downgraded to sell with a $140. I woke up last night with the thought that short term pressure will win the day in earnings. That's what GS is banking on. Everyone else is talking about 2017, and though the stock price should be about future earnings, in this market, $140 might really be the near term target. Ugh.
did not break out iphone sales? And secondly, hasn't VZ historically provided the iphone numbers on their earnings calls?
I thought yesterday would have been a catalyst for AAPL's shares (b/c of VZ/iphone sales number and a window into AAPL's overall iphone sales). The stock got a bump, but I don't think it had anything to do with VZ.
Thoughtful-only responses appreciated. Thanks in advance.