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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

findingbigtips 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 20, 2014 12:19 PM Member since: Jan 18, 2004
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  • findingbigtips by findingbigtips Nov 20, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    The chart looks to me like those who shorted recently did some covering along with added buying by optimists. Shorts who have ridden this down from high numbers haven't begun to cover and this action isn't scaring them yet. Going into the weekend I sold my Dec calls for a nice profit and I'll get back in long on a retrace next week. this is just a trading note, I think on a pull back this continues up and of course with any positive news the uptrend gets stronger. One thing that bothers me is the premium being scalped from the calls by the mm's. It means a number of traders were exiting the trade, or calls were being sold... either way its not a great sign. Will wait for a pullback and re-enter next week.

  • Crude oil prices for all oil companies is important, but for PBR its employee transgressions are more important as they have caused the greater part of its problems. Now that these are being addressed, even with all the notoriety and public shame its causing, the future is brighter. The price to be paid will be some go to jail, headlines will swirl and accounting probes will show where things are really at. All of this is good and positive.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Always Impressed with how Short Hedge Funds Exit without disturbing the the price too much. Up and down, quick series of sells of 100s then cover 50,000 to 100,000. Makes it look so easy. Would be nice if a large player were to come in with a rolling buy program of 10 million shares and force some panic to the upside.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Listen to his commentary... ready to go long oil ...
    This might be ringing in the ears of Petrobras shorts... time to cover

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • findingbigtips findingbigtips Nov 19, 2014 1:33 PM Flag

    Over $10 by Friday?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Pretty obvious its time to buy PBR, its not complicated. All the bad news is being aired, execs are going to go to jail, there will be a catharsis of shame to a renewal of pride. New squeaky clean executives will take over. If assets are sold to cover debts, (not necessary if you look at cash balance), then Brazilian state will give more assets to company. It employs too many people, life goes on, smart investors are buying.

    I'd get out if short. ANY good news and up with conviction and no looking back.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • findingbigtips findingbigtips Nov 19, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    No, I'm comparing an azhule like you to a genius like me. Go back in your dark room and shoot yourself.

  • PBR is a political entity, a national company that delivers most of the energy to the country. It can't go broke, nor will it any more than Brazil is about to go bankrupt. Time to go long, follow the tape. Shorts are about to get burned if they don't cover.

    If PBR gets into big trouble it will sell assets... and guess what, Brazil will give them more assets to make up for the loss. There will be cout room drama and political party arguing and accusation, but all political parties back the company's future strength because it is Brazil.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • findingbigtips findingbigtips Nov 19, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    A valid point about XOM and PBR. On the other hand, Brazilian reserves, including gas are growing and its probable Brazil will be a dominant exporter. Read the following.

    "Alfredo Laufer, a consultant at the Brazilian Institute of Oil, Gas and Biofuels (IBP), analyzes the evolution of Brazil's role within the global energy context: "Until 1950, Brazil imported a lot of oil. As of the Six-Day War (1967), with the intensification of conflicts in the Middle East, there was an increase in oil prices and the Brazilian government started to seek reserves at the sea. The technologies have developed and in 2006 the Pre-Salt Pole was discovered", he explains. In the light of the new discoveries, Petrobras expects that the volume of oil and natural gas found in the pole will double the Brazilian reserves, now estimated at 16.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), according to criteria of the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE).

    Due to increased production, it is expected that the growth in Latin America will be driven by the Brazilian reserves. The latest World Oil Outlook report, released by OPEC in 2011, envisions a 51% increase in production in the region (4.7 million bpd to 7.1 million) by 2035. The same period will be marked by a sharp decline in supply from Asia, Africa and non-OPEC Middle East countries. The document also points out: "Mainly because of Brazil, Latin American countries will be the biggest suppliers of oil among all developing countries, excluding the OPEC members."

  • PBR cannot go bankrupt, its a state sponsored corporation. PBR has the 2nd greatest proven reserves in Latin America and is even with the Morgan Stanley 8 billion asset adjustment is bigger than Exxon Mobil. Check out cash per share compared to XOM. As PBR cleans house its price is going to double, then be triple what it is now by this time next year. Might be the best buy in the world oil patch among the giants.

    Balance Sheet PBR
    Total Cash (mrq): 25.46B
    Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 3.90

    Balance Sheet XOM
    Total Cash (mrq): 4.96B
    Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 1.17

  • Looks like Morgan Stanley is trying to protect a short position. Theirs or a friend? We know Chanos was short. Stock is oversold, over shorted, and will quickly be the most legal, law abiding, and profitable oil company in the Americas. Huge buy here.

    http://ycharts.com/companies/PBR/assets

    Assets as of June = $363.4 BILLION
    Morgan says = -8.0 Billion
    -------------------------------------------------

    Real assests after Morgan Stanley recalc = $ 355.4 BILLION

    I'll take it. The stock cut has more than compensated, shorts are vulnerable, which is why MS is trying to hose down the enthusiasm. Look for retrace of gap then up to mid $ 13's before this rebound flattens. PBR is the most undervalued, profitable, known huge asset base, company I can think of. Shorts are going to get smoked on this one and they are in panic mode.

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