This motive or possible strategy of BMRN (if correct) probably assumed SRPT would get and stay several years behind. Hence they could continue to harp on no approved treatment so approve Dris, noting in sight, etc.
Correct, the 26,000 is bs. Maybe complete world is total DMD, of which 13% are Exon 51 and 80% is fixable by skipping. US and EU are the key as they can pay the cost to manufacture, Japan and Aus are also likely possible.
Gary, I agree, but they won't change (their PTs) until we start crossing the last remaining hurdles: adcom and approval. After that they will start seriousily valueing the othe exons, with or without BMRN. Maybe WMS starts turning some heads, but approval is the last gate.
Your $500 is too light for a 3-5 year timeframe. This very well could be the stock of a lifetime; still risks but decreasing, but approval starts the chain reaction.
Bad for longs, but also could be perfect storm for SRPT shorts. As we have several possible positive events in the next couple days, likely confirmation of the NDA acceptance and AdCom date, a meltdown in the market while they get margined on the SRPT.
One can only hope sometimes.
Whats funny is you have the gender wrong, likely on purpose. Did you dig this up to lay some smoke on Pasteurs ID or distance yourself. She is a girl or lady; I ID'd her 2 years ago. I always thought you and her were one in the same, perhaps related?
I agree 30mg may not be the optimal dose, 25 or 35 perhaps. Since it appears the trials must run for 4 years + to prove effectiveness to the number crunchers, I suppose we can tell everyone to cool their jets and wait another 4 + years until we find out exactly which # works better, 25, 30, 35, etc.
BTW, how did RNA determine 6mg was good or best. Oh, thats right 6mg was too hot, so they dialed it back by 1/2.
Don't want to quibble about 5 years from now, but 20,000+ (EU+US) boys is even more than that. Plus there is the platform to consider. The growth rate over the next 5 years will be astounding and that in itself will add some premium as well.
After approval, the potential and platform will be obvious to everyone, even the shorts. The platform and the other X's, will drive this stock for at least 5 years to even greater levels that you mention. Don't settle for a $1 gain or $10; we are talking many $100's of gain.
on the face of it, thats real bad; however given what is in the public domain, as a parent i would wait 8 weeks.
Those Jan 19 2016 calls should start heating up. 56 days after 11/23/15 (supposed Adcom) is 1/18/16.
11B is the high end for x51 market(EU+US). Likely assumptions, 300-400k selling price, 2,500 total DMD x51 boys in EU+US, 10+P/S ratio, (a)BMRN get 100% of EU and US. (b) BMRN get 100% of x51 population.
a & b are totally bogus. If Dris is approved, Etep will also and very possible Dris does not get approved but Etep does. Either way, 100% for Dris is extremely unlikely. SRPT does have the issue of EU, so 1 scenerio is BMRN gets EU and part of US, but then its not 100% of the x51 population. If Etep approved in US, I don't see the EU having a tenable situation with only Dris available. Also look at the fight PTC is having with the limited benefit they show. Regarding b, they only claim a benefit for a small percentage of the x51 population, maybe 25%; so again, thats not 100% of the x51 population. Perhaps they think it will be prescribed off label, but given the cost, I don't see insurance companies too fond of that idea.
Based on what is baked into the BRMN price, it appears to be a good short, but I'm not game enough, not my game.
Or a short hedging as they know their plan is to cover over the next 12 trading days, which will likely result in a northerly tilt to the price.
Agree Conrad, easy to never be wrong, just don't take a stand on anything.
Gary is right about SRPT, someday in hindsight, it will be obvious that today it was undervalued.
Short work, obvious IMO. 1st $10 PT with some hope for infectious but none for DMD, based on his "molecule analysis". He throwing a bone with the $10 and a mislead with the infectious; trying to appear objective. Then later he throws out the fraud thing.
The guys a nut.
yes, they need to short more, seems to be lower fuzzy barrier at 31 +/-. The more they push, the harder it pops up.
And as you say they filed their NDA 8 weeks earlier, and might get an 8 week head start on marketing approval. With that 1st approval comes 7 years of exclusivity. FDA experts, how is that dealt with? Is this the next hurdle?
And what is the flaw; the approval or more optimistic or something else.
I too believe they (DRIS), likely get approved, but lose the mkt to ETEP. However if both are approved, they will hamper the margins and that does impact SRPT.
I have looked a little at BMRN and still can't figure out why they are such a dariling. A handful of drugs approved, apparently healthy margins on their rare disease drugs but the gross is eaten up by R&D(no surprise there) and SGA(surprise).