One year ago today July 31 2014 RNDY closed at $4.83. RNDY's share price has almost been cut in half in one year. If the trend continues RNDY should be around $1.25 a year from today.
A space once owned by a few is now shared by many, making the reach for margin incredibly competitive if not very difficult. Once Whole Foods, The Fresh Market, and Mariano's controlled the organic market of Chicago retail grocers. Now we can add a laundry list of new competition whom have moved into organics, from Heinens, Tony's all the way to Walmart and Target. Walmart has a very good selection of organics in grocery and in perishables and Target said in their CC that Cap X will move heavily into grocery going forward. The grocer with the best associates both in customer service, product knowledge, and shrink control and still maintain the integrity of their products will see the largest margins. Yes Mariano's, the war in won in the trenches, I don't care how big the fortress is.
Earnings were excellent. FB will explode in media content over next 15 mos. leading up to the election in 2016. Some profit taking in A.H. trading with run up of the stock price of 20% over the last few weeks. Over $100 by EOW.
Whole foods reported earnings ATB today and missed on EPS, Revenues, and lowers guidance. The stock was down at one point 12% to $35.72 in after hours trading.
djl: I saw Bob Mariano yesterday after working at LGH. He was at the Glenview Mariano's alone i.e. without his usual small group. I talked with Bob and we talked more yesterday than my 2 years with the company. To be truthful he was very cordial. I told him I started with Mariano's at the beginning in A.H. and V.H., he acted like he knew.. Bob then asked, "What are you doing now"? I told him I was a volunteer at Lutheran General Hospital. I complimented him on the Glenview West Mariano's which is my favorite of all his stores. We talked a bit about Lutheran General Hospital, and a few other topics which aren't relevant to this post. We shook hands and I left.
Wow, I was surprised to see RNDY hit $2.31 for another new 52 week low today and closed below $2.50, as I just got home from work at my volunteer job at Lutheran General Hospital. I saw in some of the patients rooms that the broader market was up over 150pts.
"A newer employee." I hope your not at the Skokie Mariano's. You have one of the worst store directors in Mariano's system. Bid out ASAP. I saw so much talent walk out of the Mariano's in Vernon Hills when she was a SOM, and asked her about it, she replied, "That's unfortunate." UNFORTUNATE? These associates were some of the best talent I ever worked with in retail grocery, namely perishables. It shows you where her head is at, and I don't think I have to put it in writing.
I would continue to sell into any strength RNDY may see from a dead cat bounce. RNDY is neither at support or resistance, it's in limbo. Two history proven sayings in the market. "The trend is your friend" and "Don't catch a falling knife." should not be taken lightly. It doesn't look like the shorts are done and planning to cover anytime soon. Friday's move to a new 52 week low was done on extreme volume showing a large outflow of cash from the stock. Until a base is formed and it takes longer than one session I would be a cautious observer. A base may or may not be established near the $2.50 level or it may find better footing perhaps around $2.20. Earnings will be key. If RNDY fails to impress the market with real growth on the top line and not just from cutting the bottom line when they report, the market will pounce and take the stock below the $2.00 level. Bob Mariano's CC after last quarters earnings report was filled with promises and a change in "training and process" to reduce losses (Shrink), however the proof will be in the numbers coming from the upcoming earnings report. In channel checks I haven't seen any change in "training and process" especially in meat and seafood, the same mistakes of the past are still being made.
cashback_7: Mariano's has lowered the price of their pub burgers from $4.99/lb to $3.99/lb. They are 1/2/lb burgers, so they're $2 bucks each however in doing so Mariano's is also losing margin.
Pub Burgers are RED. Grass Fed Steaks are RED. Beef Fajitas are REDDISH brown. Stuffed Mushrooms are TAN. Tilapia is PINK. Mussels are CLOSED unless marked steamed. 26/30 Cooked Shrimp are THAWED (or FROSTED is acceptable) not shredded......................................
Whole Foods to open a new 72,000/sf. store on the corner of Lincoln and Belmont it will be built on the site of the old Lakeview Bank now that demolition is completed. This location has very prime exposure and equally great demographics. It's almost all Millennials, the targeted group for retail grocers promoting organics. Mariano's stores possibly being affected and giving up market share, Bucktown, and 1800 West Lawrence for starters.
Mariano's performance has stagnated and at several locations dropped off. Roundy's/Wisconsin has gotten worse with the ramped up competition from Meijer, Walmart, and Woodmans. Besides RNDY being a stock for bottom feeders and day traders what is the REAL catalyst for the stock to move higher. I don't see any at this time. It has been suggested on this board that conditions for Roundy's will get worse before they get better. Management please tell the market.