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Microsoft Corporation Message Board

firsttestcase 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 3, 2014 12:06 PM Member since: Apr 8, 2005
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  • Reply to

    BEARISH PUT BET ON YAHOO

    by muscletech Jul 3, 2014 10:02 AM
    firsttestcase firsttestcase Jul 3, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    I would not want to be short when roadshow begins to demonstrate the real size and scope of Alibaba (Amazon and ebay combined ...plus; with earnings and growth....)

    Sure, there will be fluctuation but it makes since to invest in yhoo right now....share buy back program alone will raise price above current pps when people read the details associated with earnings. I do not expect yhoo to do much more than .38 cents, and one might get a little dip on the immediate earnings numbers until folks do the math on buy back and Alibaba information......

    Then comes the roadshow and the IPO.....If yhoo drops under 35 again I will buy buy more (I was going to buy some softbank this am but it went way up, so I will have to wait for a few more of those "can't trust China, and its only China wall street bobble head reports to bring one or the other down so I can buy more.....Then again, I have enough yhoo now to make me happy when this thing pops. Selling off my other holdings just in case there is a contrived drop before the IPO .....

    Hoping for perfect storm of all time high in DOW at same time as IPO of the largest and fastest growing company on earth. I am not sure why price has not already exploded.........

  • firsttestcase firsttestcase Jun 29, 2014 6:25 PM Flag

    Four keys to Yhoo rising
    1. Evaluation of Alibaba - anything over 160B at IPO and yhoo goes considerably higher. If yhoo can reduce the amount of shares of BABA that it sells then yhoo goes up proportionatly. Of course if BABA goes up after IPO, yhoo goes up.
    2. If yhoo shows that it bought back a boat load of shares under 35 yhoo goes up, and goes up even more if BABA IPOs high and goes up (do the math).
    3. Organic growth - if yhoo begins to show positive return on acquisition investments then yhoo goes up
    4. If yhoo shows positive returns of move to mobile then yhoo goes up.

    I expect strong growth based on 1 and 2 and the beginnings of positive moves on 3-4. At this point I look at core value and yhoo Japan investment to be somewhat on the positive side of neutral....but, BABA and the cost of yhoo shares bought back to have a very big upside by August 8th or whenever BABA goes public.

    I really hope with the boat load of cash coming in that yhoo bought back tons of shares at what I think are incredibly low prices!!!!!! I currently use 35 range as my measure of cheap shares....but when yhoo goes over 40 anything they have bought back this year will have a very positive impact on the value of each remaining share of yhoo.

    -----on other fronts...like buy out
    ....I now think that ship has sailed
    1. AAPL appears to be distancing itself from yhoo
    2. BABA has no real reason to want yhoo's parts (only the shares of BABA that it holds and it is getting half of those back with the market paying for the purchase.....super growth opportunity for BABA which should make BABA shares even more valuable). Honestly, in immediate pre and post IPO environment the best investment looks to be Softbank as they don't have to sell anything!
    3. MSFT - logical move by msft in post-IPO environment, particularly once cash is in hand. MSFT could use the cash to back a large loan or simply pay cash, or in shares and essentially get yhoo for almost nothing at $50 per share).

  • firsttestcase firsttestcase May 7, 2014 2:12 PM Flag

    What I find interesting is how quickly the verbiage moved against Alibaba once the IPO was announced. Seems like it was a full press effort to squash momentum. Many of the things that make Alibaba so enticing are being held against the company as it IPOs.

    Would it have gotten the same bums rush the announcement received if they had decided to listed Hong Kong? I honestly doubt it, seems more likely that NY just wants to close the doors a bit to Chinese companies.

  • firsttestcase firsttestcase May 7, 2014 12:14 PM Flag

    It is clear that Alibaba was taken to the wood shed because folks simply can not imagine how big and interconnected the company is. The weight of the commentary has been a combination of surprise and perhaps even concern that Alibaba is already so large (very reactionary commentary). There is a clear distrust for Chinese companies. There is a degree of arrogance and bigotry in the American investment community.

    Having said these things perhaps the bases for the complaint relates to expectations. There are perhaps too many parts and uncertainties, there are basic questions about any company set up in Grand Cayman, folks raise questions regarding liability for "fake" products, there are questions of managerial structure, and there are questions on tangibility of assets. It seems as if they think the company is simply too good to be true.

    Hence, yhoo has been hammer today. Sure looks like a great time for a buyout offer from anybody as by almost any matrix yhoo is substantially undervalued.

  • I was watching CNBC this AM, it is clear that wall street's pendants simply do not understand Alibaba. When confronted by Alibaba's size, growth, and diversity of interests there is a general denial of China, sales and sales figures, and a discounting of value. With data on the comparatively large size of Alibaba vs Amazon...they reflect on numbers that would suggest that Alibaba has greater value than anticipated and respond that ...perhaps it is just that Amazon that is overvalued by 3x. Really, are these reactions legitimate or a reaction to the REALIZED growth of China as a player in the capital marketplace?

    It seems to me that there is a concerted effort to undervalue Alibaba [probably by folks that want to buy more at a lower price]

    So, as a result YHOO goes down on the Alibaba IPO filing....
    So is Amazon really worth one third its current price...if so what are the broader implications of such an evaluation....

    There certainly are lots of questions about Alibaba (like why is its charter in the Cayman Islands, what exchange will it file on, how much stock will it sell on the IPO for what value, what oversight if any will a BOD and shareholders have (IPO shares will represent a small minority).

    Still, I wonder if one is seeing fear in the American business community of China's economic growth and Alibaba's strength in growth and scale are simply freaking out the current business power structures on wall street. The result is denial, a bit of protectionism (if not racism....yes I said it), uncertainty. In financial terms perhaps the Alibaba reflects a sort of "tipping point" in global stock valuation....and American companies may not look as good as they once did moving forward. My question is how will Alibaba and the broader American market be repriced with Alibaba....will Alibaba valuation rise to match American stock evaluation (Amazon, ebay, etc.) or will the American market drop to accommodate the denial of Alibaba and China's businesses?

  • Reply to

    a msg i posted in my "former life":

    by pebble.4xagain May 6, 2014 10:12 PM
    firsttestcase firsttestcase May 6, 2014 11:28 PM Flag

    just about zero. They simply have too much to do...this company is about as complex as it gets......

  • Reply to

    not much available from the sec

    by pebble.4xagain May 6, 2014 11:04 PM
    firsttestcase firsttestcase May 6, 2014 11:12 PM Flag

    Are you kidding me. There is a cover sheet and over 400 additional pdfs with information about the company...has anyone gone through these?

    F-1 Documents Registration statement for certain foreign private issuers
    Acc-no: 0001193125-14-184994 (33 Act) Size: 101 MB 2014-05-06 333-195736

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow After Closing Bell

    by warnerlambert May 5, 2014 8:16 PM
    firsttestcase firsttestcase May 5, 2014 8:26 PM Flag

    Or, sometime.....
    When it happens the fun will begin....until then the talk will continue.
    Best of luck to all who have invested in Yhoo!

  • firsttestcase firsttestcase Apr 30, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    I have been trying to figure out the true price of buying Yhoo for Alibaba and I don't think they have near enough money even after the IPO...unless they work out some share option deal that gives yhoo shareholders shares of Alibaba

    In contrast aapl could to an outright purchase and pay out a cash dividend to shareholders....and probably also transport a big block of assets at a reduced tax rate......So my vote is for aapl at $50 this year or $60 next year.

  • Alibaba looks like they have a lot of work to do before the IPO, they have been very busy of late setting up business structures that might be more difficult to negotiate after the IPO. They are also spending a lot of money. One question that I have is...are they buying anything that is to be traded out to Yhoo in lieu of cash as part of a tax strategy.

    I also wonder why they don't just buy Yhoo and then sell back part of the assets to msft or aapl to build out global agreements that will help them with their overall growth as well as visibility.

    As for how long it will be before they file.....it depends on how long it takes to finish off their pre-filing deals. The rapidity of the deals suggests that the date is close but how many more deals must they close and how close are they? I assume that many of these deals will be paid for with IPO proceeds....thus it looks to me like the IPO will be huge!

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