Yhoo: Find a good solution to the tax problem, but please forget AOL, i really think AOL it adds nothing material to Yhoo IP or core structure. Will it make money now and in the future? . There must be a better way to realize tax savings. It seems that those who own AOL simply see this as an easy out with a fast gain for them. Yhoo has done well on its corporate investments, if anything they sold two chunks of BABA too soon (then again, without the sale they probably would not have realized the significant gain this year.
It seems that Nuance has never been driven (or forced) to provide value to it's shareholders. Several years ago I rode the price up from the low single digits to about 28 and it seemed like the sky was the limit..,great technology, strong patents, and VR and dictation, and pdf copy and translate systems that worked. The Watson demonstration (partnered with IBM) were excellent and it looked like profits would be immediate.l Then nothing positive happened. I sold all but a few hundred shares (bought at about 6) near the peak, expecting to buy back when some positive news came in or a buyout was imminent - it never happened. I finally gave up and sold the last shares at about 20....still thinking nuan had a good future.....but nothing happened. All that great tech, the dozens of acquisitions, the billions spent.....and no real return on the investment....except for the CEO who seemed to receive extravagant compensation - particularly compared to low profits and returns, The shareholders simply had to absorb years of loses......
I have not been watching nuan....but is there any hope for the company? Or is all that investment in great tech being wasted!!!!!! - If so why?
Yeah, I expect yhoo to continue to rise...but perhaps not right away. I am not sure about impact of the two IPOs (tomorrow and Friday) as the market as a whole seems to be in a pretty strong correction this week. Hard to swim against the tide! I am in a hold mode, but will buy more if yhoo keeps on falling....IMO, yhoo needs to define its mechanism for tax savings...then it should move up quickly.......until then, I expect it to follow the market and honestly, I the market could swing either way.
Thank you for your well reasoned response. I still hold yhoo, because I think it is still undervalued, If baba pulls back I will buy some, but I think it really needs to digest its current price level. Getting my feet wet with sftby. Price just seems way too low given its baba holdings, but you are correct about it being a pink sheet stock with pretty low volume and, among other things, no after hours escape hatch.
I have done well with yhoo (up from 14 and change) and baba (out recently in 115 range). Softbank is the largest holder of BABA and they did not sell a thing. Seems to me they should have gained on the IPO and the near doubling from 68 to the present level (almost a double post ipo price). Yet SFTBY is down from about 40 in Sept to a little over 34 now. I know that Sprint did not have a good quarter...but that is a relatively small portion of the Softbank portfolio compared with BABA. Given this information why has SFTBY dropped of late?
Sprint can only be part of the answer?
What about debt?
What about liquidity?
Are there other bad holdings in the company?
To me sftby at 34 looks like yhoo did to me when it was in the mid 30s in October ....yhoo is now over 51.
I think that train has already left the station. It was an interesting idea when yhoo was at 34-38.... but at 49, I think that the price is too rich. Yhoo is still undervalued, however it costs a lot more in real dollars today than in August or September.
No, this is a healthy pull back as people process the huge run up in share price and the excellent results of singles day. I expect both yhoo and baba float around this area if not lower for a few days while people take profits and consider the next leg up for both. IMO Yhoo is still undervalued and I expect it to be in the 50s by the end of the year if not early next year. Yhoo It seems to lag well behind the value of the sum of its parts on the way up but to pull back down in cadence with any hesitations or bad news in the market.
The past few days have been fun.....
Protesting what....yhoo's increase in share price? If you want a dress or hand bag sell some of your own shares and buy them for yourself.
I know yhoo has not been in favor among many on wall street, but yesterday's initial assessment of the earnings report on CNBC was just plain bad, and really the same can be said for many of the quick reports across the financial media.
-many totally discounted the baba windfall.....describing yhoo as struggling even when confronted by a positive balance sheet of about 9 billion (12 b less taxes) and positive news on core earnings..
- they used terms like "eked out a small gain" or "marginal gain" to describe a report that beat estimates by 19-20c (about 60%)...and the same analysts had marked down core value to less than zero.....really? is that honest? what are their motivations?
-some recommended selling on the news at 41 (along with a rational that ignored critical data)...why? It would appear that that was not really too good an idea...nor was it backed by financial data? so why make the recommendation? motivations?
I have been trying to explain to my wife the problems the small , independent investor has investing in a rigged market place, where logic, and real value comes second to greed and manipulation. So, I had my wife read the earnings report information and then I turned on CNBC, sure that they would try to minimize the positive news....she, like I, was incredulous about their reporting - she was shocked, unfortunately, I expected it. The financial game is rigged....and these jerks make money off the masses - through what some might, with good reason, consider deception.
Small investors be ware!
-Happy with yhoo results..#$%$ at the gate keepers of finance!
Or she could simply report on earnings (hopefully with a modest positive side statement for the past quarter) and explain how they are planning to maximize return to shareholders via by back along with reassurance that they have the company headed in the right direction and we should expect careful use of the windfall from baba ipo to buy back shares and strategically build the company.
...there will be no buy-out (the timing is not good)
...hopefully there will be no immediate acquisitions (they need to first iron out the tax issues
...hopefully they will carefully lay out a plan of action and remind us all how cool it is to be sitting on cash at this time in history - remarkable.
So now Eric is proposing that Alibaba pay $41.18/share for Yhoo? Not any meat for shareholders, 10% premium on what many think is an undervalued current price? You like the article and yet you see yhoo at over 60 when "talks get underway"........????
market is down
yhoo is down
no talks underway...yhoo is not at the center of baba's thoughts right now
earnings even...change takes time
the short term key is unlocking the tax problem
the long term key is growing the core
they have the money to do it but do they have the ideas and the will?
I expect that yhoo will do nothing. I think they are still working things out and defining what they can do with the money. Baba is probably concentrating on their first quarter and really should be doing nothing else. There is no indication of anything materially different with respect to Yhoo earnings from its core business. Yes, they will have the baba windfall to report. I don't even expect much in the way of share buy backs because the money is off shore..... I suggest that yhoo make a clear presentation about who they will negotiate tax savings and if not why not. Yhoo needs to make a strong statement about the future in their quarterly report.
given all the bad news about their partnering target, I hope they have been moving very slowly with Snapchat (I would not be doing business with them).
I think that they are way undervalued....but Wall Street seems to strongly disagree with me, Not much one can do about a fixed game, a rigged deck, or the deal makers on Wall Street.
Get real, Yhoo has many, many options. They have a positive cash flow, a stash of cash, an investment in baba that is still growing (it may take time to consolidate at its ipo high but does anyone really think that baba has taped out on its potential ...I think not!!!). Not to many companies have that type of balance sheets.....yes aapl, msft, and goog have more to work with ...but there is room for yhoo to grow and media for use of the internet is still expanding.
If you want a double tomorrow, then sell now and take your chances at Vegas, but first consider your odds. Yhoo is certainly not the only place to invest, it may not even be the best place to invest, but I think there is more transparency in what the value of yhoo is and will be than for most investment opportunities.
I'm not so certain that 39-41 is a reasonable price for yhoo. Personally, I think it is very low and that it should be higher, but that it may very well go lower. Hence, it simply is what it is - in part because of the uncertainty and lack of a clear definitive direction or plan.
If yhoo spends a lot of money on start-ups it will quickly go significantly lower for the short and medium term because the type of acquisition is likely to involve things that will take time (multiple years) to develop. The billion invested in Alibaba was virtually worthless for years and now represents the bulk of the value of yhoo. The billions spent over the past two years have virtually no definable value.....yet they may be the basis for future growth.
If yhoo uses the bulk of its windfall to buy back shares....then yhoo will increase if for no other reason than they can show an immediate return of value to shareholders 100m shares would decrease share count by 10% and probably have a 20% net increase in residual share value.
If yhoo can show even a margin of increase in revenue from the core business we will see yhoo rise significantly....and if they show a decline it will drop significantly.
If they do nothing it will drop even with a big stash of cash because folks will fear that they are simply waiting to buy something that will yield uncertainty and little in the way of fast cash income,
IF yhoo gets sold it will yield a 30-40% increase in share value that will be immediate and will be appreciated by all but the few shareholders that see more long term potential for yhoo. I thought that this might happen, but now I think the odds are against it. Too many vested interests, too little interest in yhoo's core, and little need to spend the money in the short term by anyone except baba - unless baba knows that it will have a supper first quarter and that the price of yhoo (ands its baba shares) is considerably less than the current value