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Linn Co, LLC Message Board

fish.andchips 278 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 30, 2015 8:55 AM Member since: Jul 24, 2009
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  • fish.andchips by fish.andchips Apr 30, 2015 8:55 AM Flag

    Test message

  • fish.andchips by fish.andchips Feb 3, 2015 6:58 AM Flag

    Mr. Orbach’s prediction for the next 5 years is that Silicom will be a $200M company and to get there from where we are today ($75.6M), that is a 22% per year increase in revenue. He also provided a range of $84-$90M for 2015 and I believe that he is under promising and will over deliver. That being said, if we look at the number for 2015 within the range he provide, this is what we would get:

    $84M X .24% (avg. % net earnings)/7.1(mil shares)= earnings per share
    84 X .24= 20.16 /7.1= $2.84 earnings per share for 2105
    90 X .24= 21.6 /7.1= $3.04 earnings per share for 2105

    At the 22% increase for the year, this would bring us to $92.23M
    92.23 X .24= 22.1 /7.1= $3.11 earnings per share for 2105

    Can Silicom actually get to $200 M in 5 years? Of course they can, but none of the analysts reports provide “the how”on them getting there. Silicom is creating new technologies that are being adopted by all of the high-end networking and network security OEM’s. These are mostly 10 Gb solutions today, but will be migrated to 40Gb and/or 100 Gb over the next 5 years and Silicom is in the driver seat to provide all of these solutions. And at a higher price.

    They are in a very good position to address the future requirements for their customers, but until they get more analysts to cover them, they may never get to a PE of 20 or more.

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    2015 = $3 earnings What am I missing?

    by jdberwanger Jan 29, 2015 9:20 PM
    fish.andchips fish.andchips Jan 30, 2015 7:59 PM Flag

    Here are the earnings numbers between $84M and $90M for 2015

    Revenue X % of net revenue divided by # of shares (.24 seems to be the their average net revenue)

    $84M X.24/7.1=$2.84/share
    $90M X.24/7.1=$3.04/share

    As I believe we deserve at least a PE of 20, this would bring the stock somewhere between $56.80 and $60.80

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New 13G filed

    by fish.andchips Jan 21, 2015 4:10 PM
    fish.andchips fish.andchips Jan 22, 2015 5:05 AM Flag

    Yelin Lapidot is a Portfolio Asset Management company based in Israel and Dov Yelin is the CEO. So no, the share were not options and now the top 4 share holders have 38% of the shares.

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • fish.andchips by fish.andchips Jan 21, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    A new 13g was filed this afternoon by Dov Yelin increasing the holdings from 422K shares up to 610K shares, an 8.5% holding of the company. A very big bet!

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What happened to all the regulars?

    by smitty4901 Jan 13, 2015 1:01 PM
    fish.andchips fish.andchips Jan 13, 2015 2:44 PM Flag

    I have been lurking for a while as I was mainly in cash for about 6 months. I started getting back into SILC about a month ago in the $32-$35 range based on last quarters conference call. The tone of the call sounded to me like they were back in with the customer they lost and it was the first time I can remember that the CEO stated they would be at $200M in 5 years There was something behind that statement and unusual for someone that conservative.

    Good luck everyone.

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SILC and the Market.....

    by sahmdars Jul 20, 2014 12:31 PM
    fish.andchips fish.andchips Jul 21, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    As much as we have heard on the board about any doom regarding Silicom, there has been no eveidence of anything wrong with customers and/or products. The company my be guilty of bad timing with their shelf offering and it's explanation and they may not have the best marketing group the in the industry, but they sure know how to develop great products and how to get them if front of the right partners. These partners take a long time to design in products and once they are customers, they are customers for a long time. They become the idea center for Silicom's newest products and the reason sales have expanded at the 25-50% year over year rate. They are not going to switch companies as some have suggested, as they just announced their new product, based on Silicom products' in Q1. This company has a long way to go before sales start slowing down, as 40 Gb will give them a whole new refresh cycle for many years to come.

    Good luck everyone.

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    quarter guesses.

    by mikthorne Jul 7, 2014 8:15 PM
    fish.andchips fish.andchips Jul 7, 2014 8:49 PM Flag

    From my earlier post:

    I believe that the Q2 sales number will be the same as the (Q4+Q1)/2 were ($25M+$19M=$44M/2=$22M), with earnings between $.75-$.78 per share.

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • fish.andchips by fish.andchips Jun 16, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    The year over year growth in the last 4 years for Silicom is as follows:
    2010=48%
    2011=31%
    2012=23%
    2013=51%

    So why have the (few) analysts that have covered the stock forecasted such small growth percentage every year? This is a question I ask every year and this year is no different as Needham’s forecast is for a 12% year over year growth ($2.75 vs. $2.45) for 2014.

    Silicom’s new products are in their infancy and will provide very good potential growth for at least the next 5 years. This in part as they have entered a new market with their data center focused virtualization off load engine and time stamp products. This is very similar to what they did with their bypass product and the networking OEM’s, by getting 1 product engineered into their appliance line, and expanding it from there.

    I need to dissect the Needham numbers. Their forecast for the year is for Silicom to do $87.66M in sales and $2.75/share in earnings. As Silicom has been averaging around 25% net earnings of the last 5 quarters, I think it’s safe to say that they will be close to that this year as opposed to the 22% in Needham’s forecast. That means that at $87.66 M they will earn $3.13/share, not $2.75. This would bring their PE for 2014 to 14.

    I am using a conservative forecast of $91-$93M for (a 25% growth rate) Silicom and earnings of $3.25-$3.32/ share with the Q by Q numbers of:
    Q1= $19m
    Q2=$22M
    Q3=$23M
    Q4=$27M
    Total =$91 x.25=$3.25

    Lastly regarding the analysts, I would give Ken Nagy (at Zacks) a nod as he does a good job explaining what Silicom does, but even his numbers lack the conviction of his writing.

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • fish.andchips by fish.andchips Jun 15, 2014 8:16 AM Flag

    2009= $20.5M in revenue and $2.2M in earnings vs. Q1 2014 $19 in revenue and $4.8M in earnings- 118% over 2009

    Over the last 5 years Silicom has grown revenue 38% CAGR and earning 69% CAGR and net profits from 10.8% to 25%.

    So why do I bring up these numbers? Because too many posters are looking at the Q over Q numbers without understanding what Silicom is doing, who they sell to and how those customers buy their products.

    Silicom has provided networking hardware primarily to network appliance OEM’s and has slowly expanded their market share since their introduction of their bypass and SETAC products. With their introduction of the Time Stamp, Encryption and Off-Load Engine products, their expansion will continue well into the future. They build and offer products based on their engineering relationships with their customers feedback on what is needed. So new products are not offered as a solution that we think is needed, but as a product that will fill a need at multiple customers.

    When you look at the customers that Silicom sells to, you will better understand the relationship between their Q4 and Q1 sales numbers. Their customers do most of their new product introductions in Q1, which means that they order and build their new Q1 products in Q4. For example, if their largest customer (the one who has products in consignment) thinks they will sell around 9000 widgets based on an aggressive sales forecast (network widget of course) and they pull those out of inventory, but actually only sell 6000, then 2 things happen; they know what their need is for the next quarter (6000) and they still have 3000 widgets in inventory. So guess what, they only pull 3000 out of stock for Q1 requirements. Sales haven’t slowed down; they have just gone through a quarter over quarter adjustment.

    What does this then mean for Q2? I believe that the Q2 sales number will be the same as the Q4+Q1/2 were ($25M+$19M=$44M/2=$22M), with earnings between $.75-$.78 per share.

    For those who

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The call

    by coochy.cooty Apr 30, 2014 11:09 AM
    fish.andchips fish.andchips May 1, 2014 6:48 AM Flag

    The outlook for coverage from the call:

    "We are aware of enough good things happening in our asset portfolio that we think will offset the delays we have experienced thus far. Based on current strip pricing, the second quarter we are expecting average daily production of between 310 and 320 MMcfe per day, adjusted EBITDA of between $103 million and $105 million, and distribution coverage range of between 1.05 to 1.1 times depending on the timing of capital expenditures."

    F&C

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Motley fool just jumped on

    by johnberchick Apr 23, 2014 11:39 AM
    fish.andchips fish.andchips Apr 23, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    Maybe the shelf was set up so that Intel could take a million share position.

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • fish.andchips fish.andchips Apr 23, 2014 9:18 AM Flag

    It's actually less than that At $2.71 (Needham's #) their forward PE is 21.1, but if they were given a more realistic number like $3.20, they would be at about a PE of 18.

    We will know tomorrow.

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Employee Count and Mfg Capacity

    by itaxitoo Apr 22, 2014 3:25 PM
    fish.andchips fish.andchips Apr 23, 2014 7:58 AM Flag

    Correction----The new production facility is 2400 sq meters, not sq feet.

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • fish.andchips by fish.andchips Apr 9, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    snosurfer-I'll make you a wager. My numbers for the quarter vs your numbers for the quarter. If you lose, you get the hell off this board and don't come back in any name, and if I lose I won't post anymore.

    Are you up for it?

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • TASE Implements R&D Committee Recommendations: Launches TA Tech-Elite Index. The index is scheduled for launch on 11 May 2014 and Silicom is the 12th largest holding with a 3.14% weighting.

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Looks like dead cat bounce is over..

    by snosurfer08012 Apr 3, 2014 12:37 PM
    fish.andchips fish.andchips Apr 4, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    snosurfer-

    Needham has the following number for the quarter and for the year:
    Revenue- $18.79M for the quarter and $88.61M for the year.
    Earnings-$.53 for the quarter and $2.71 for the year.
    Needham has missed the number (they were lower) on average by 27% over the last year

    My numbers are:
    Revenue- $22.0M for the quarter and $96.0M for the year.
    Earnings-$.73 for the quarter and $3.15 for the year.
    With PE of 30, the stock should be at $94.5 by the end of the year

    snosurfer numbers are:
    Revenue- $ M for the quarter and $ M for the year.
    Earnings-$ for the quarter and $ for the year.

    Just fill in the blanks and add your reasoning why.

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Looks like dead cat bounce is over..

    by snosurfer08012 Apr 3, 2014 12:37 PM
    fish.andchips fish.andchips Apr 3, 2014 1:43 PM Flag

    OK-here is your chance snosurfer. We get earnings in 3 weeks, let us know what the earnings will be and what will the price of the stock be once they announce?

    If you are wrong then just admit it, an if you're not then I'll admit that you are better at this than I am!

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Posted in Hebrew on the TASE:

    Re: adjusting the holdings of interested parties - Silicom) dual listed company (Honored members of the stock
    Dear Sirs,
    Changes in the holdings of interested parties are based on information obtained from various sources and the Stock Exchange   works by the exchange, according to its understanding, and are listed below:
       comments  
    Closing balance  change opening balance Period of change  paper type Name of interested    1 ( 
    202 618 11,090 191 528 2/28/14  Share Avi Eisenman 

    Sincerely,  
    (-)
    Sarit Berman unit contact companies
    1 (according to 20F stakeholders report dated 3/20/14.

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nasdaq Said Ex-Dividend is April 1

    by ken.ngo2 Mar 31, 2014 10:04 AM
    fish.andchips fish.andchips Apr 1, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    Thank you for the clarification-I understand the process now.

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

LNCO
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