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Silicom Ltd. Message Board

fish.andchips 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 3, 2015 6:58 AM Member since: Jul 24, 2009
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  • fish.andchips by fish.andchips Feb 3, 2015 6:58 AM Flag

    Mr. Orbach’s prediction for the next 5 years is that Silicom will be a $200M company and to get there from where we are today ($75.6M), that is a 22% per year increase in revenue. He also provided a range of $84-$90M for 2015 and I believe that he is under promising and will over deliver. That being said, if we look at the number for 2015 within the range he provide, this is what we would get:

    $84M X .24% (avg. % net earnings)/7.1(mil shares)= earnings per share
    84 X .24= 20.16 /7.1= $2.84 earnings per share for 2105
    90 X .24= 21.6 /7.1= $3.04 earnings per share for 2105

    At the 22% increase for the year, this would bring us to $92.23M
    92.23 X .24= 22.1 /7.1= $3.11 earnings per share for 2105

    Can Silicom actually get to $200 M in 5 years? Of course they can, but none of the analysts reports provide “the how”on them getting there. Silicom is creating new technologies that are being adopted by all of the high-end networking and network security OEM’s. These are mostly 10 Gb solutions today, but will be migrated to 40Gb and/or 100 Gb over the next 5 years and Silicom is in the driver seat to provide all of these solutions. And at a higher price.

    They are in a very good position to address the future requirements for their customers, but until they get more analysts to cover them, they may never get to a PE of 20 or more.

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    2015 = $3 earnings What am I missing?

    by jdberwanger Jan 29, 2015 9:20 PM
    fish.andchips fish.andchips Jan 30, 2015 7:59 PM Flag

    Here are the earnings numbers between $84M and $90M for 2015

    Revenue X % of net revenue divided by # of shares (.24 seems to be the their average net revenue)

    $84M X.24/7.1=$2.84/share
    $90M X.24/7.1=$3.04/share

    As I believe we deserve at least a PE of 20, this would bring the stock somewhere between $56.80 and $60.80

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New 13G filed

    by fish.andchips Jan 21, 2015 4:10 PM
    fish.andchips fish.andchips Jan 22, 2015 5:05 AM Flag

    Yelin Lapidot is a Portfolio Asset Management company based in Israel and Dov Yelin is the CEO. So no, the share were not options and now the top 4 share holders have 38% of the shares.

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • fish.andchips by fish.andchips Jan 21, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    A new 13g was filed this afternoon by Dov Yelin increasing the holdings from 422K shares up to 610K shares, an 8.5% holding of the company. A very big bet!

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What happened to all the regulars?

    by smitty4901 Jan 13, 2015 1:01 PM
    fish.andchips fish.andchips Jan 13, 2015 2:44 PM Flag

    I have been lurking for a while as I was mainly in cash for about 6 months. I started getting back into SILC about a month ago in the $32-$35 range based on last quarters conference call. The tone of the call sounded to me like they were back in with the customer they lost and it was the first time I can remember that the CEO stated they would be at $200M in 5 years There was something behind that statement and unusual for someone that conservative.

    Good luck everyone.

    F&C

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

SILC
41.60+0.74(+1.81%)Mar 27 3:59 PMEDT