Record cold weather has caused a depletion of the LNG stocks. Spot market is squeezed. Meanwhile crude is drifting to 100/bbl. PWE is improving its operations by concentrating cap ex on high return plays and leaving the marginal ones for later, or even selling some for cash to reinvest in the hot properties.
Meanwhile, each day brings us closer to a viable LNG terminal in British Columbia, and untold billions from Asian markets.
Looks like the perfect storm to me. I just bought 6000 shares, and will keep buying as long as we're under $10/share. By January, "global warming" will turn out to be a joke, everyone will be freezing their buns off, and LNG will be $4.50+
94 (now 95) is a pretty good price. Triple the prices of late 2008, early 2009. ERF's cost is half that. And NG will soon break above 4.
We're running on all cylinders.
I don't think its the alpha fool. Its just interest rates have been going up.
I am looking at Liberty's properties, their low, locked in, fixed mortgage rates, and I'm happy.
In the low 20's I'm buying more, so I invite more fools to "bench" OLP (whatever that means).
I don't know about XOM and CVX, but I compared with PWE and PGH (like the guru was saying) and they have a very high correlation.
But I do agree that they don't follow "purely" oil and gas prices, but also are affected by the dow, if there is a big crash or big rally in the total stock market, then they will go with it, even against energy prices that day.
I am GUESSING that one mutual/hedge fund decided to exit today. This brought the price down to where it is attractive. Add to this the data just released about the new acquisitions, and it is attractive enough to pull the trigger. Yes, some of the longer term broad negatives still persist, mainly interest rates long term trend to increase a lot (although short term they went back down nicely). The media seems to have forgotten Syria for now (probably that's what Obama wants). Come to think of it, the media has also stopped warning about rate rises, now the "crisis of the week" is the shutdown. I don't see how the shutdown is bad for anything, its actually a good thing... if we could just get them to stay shut for a long time and return us the taxes they collected :)
But seriously, compare $20/share with $23/share....That's almost 2 1/2 years of dividends, so one way to look at it is, by selling when it was too high, and buying back now at a good price, we're collecting over 2 years "bonus" dividends.
This REIT has a relatively small market cap and even smaller float. When a large player wants to exit, we help them out with liquidity, if they give us a good price. Similarly, when a large player wants in (and this will happen soon, as more investors digest the numbers from the latest acquisition) we might do them a favor and provide liquidity.... at a %15 premium perhaps ?
It crashed, just like I predicted, and I bought back just now. At $20 its a good value. Also, I just completed my analysis of the new property acquisitions and its very positive. I calculated a cap rate above 7.5%, which is attractive, and to make it even sweeter, OLP locked in a 15 year mortgage at 4.875%, which leverages the yield on the distribution center to 13.65%
Assuming that Northern Tool & Equipment Company has a decent credit rating, this is a fantastic investment, and shows that our management is as savvy as their reputation claims. Below is how I calculated the leveraged yield of 13.65%
total cost $39.2 Million
cap rate 0.0754
rent 2.95568 Million / Year
loan amount 27.3 Million
loan int 0.04875
loan payment 1.330875 Million / Year
net 1.624805 Million / Year
I can't yet calculate the leveraged yield on the FedEx and restaurant properties, because we paid cash for now (more accurately, cash from the revolver, so temporarily financed with short term debt), and I am guessing that OLP might secure a 4.5% fixed rate for these (or at least the FedEx facility) when the terms are favorable. The restaurants might be too small for financing, and might end up as "unleveraged equity" until flipped for a 20% profit.
I just LOADED up on this real high quality REIT. It is small and agile and can grab the "small" deals that the big REITS won't compete for, with amazing yields.
Just bought more shares. Where else can I get %7 inflation adjusted with so little risk ?
I'm hoping the brokers will shake it down and I'll be able to get some more along with them.
The question is, would anyone sell ?
That's why I call it the "good old days". But I think they'll be back.
Yes, I wouldn't want to write calls at these low prices, as they could get exercised, and I wouldn't want to sell under $20, that would be giving it away.
It is such a scam. The thieves didn't want to pay even $12, so they (together with management, which are ALREADY on their payroll) made all those announcements designed to lower the share price. All of a sudden, they're predicting huge losses, lay offs, end of the world. Right.... Such a SCAM. BBRY should not go for less than $25/share. I will vote NO, if they would honestly count votes.
This MM will have to have a balance sheet like the Federal Reserve to stop the buying wave that will hit tomorrow - as long as they can't get the media to censure the news coming out of thousands of apple stores and carriers.
You need the app that correctly navigates your jetpack - like those Syrian terrorists (or freedom fighters - not sure)
I agree. And when the sleeping giant awakens, APPLE will see sales like no one ever imagined. CHL executives needed another week to load up on cheap AAPL calls. No insider trading laws in China - especially when your father is the communist party leader.