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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

fizrwinnr11 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 11, 2014 1:25 PM Member since: Jan 7, 2011
  • fizrwinnr11 fizrwinnr11 Apr 11, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    GAP Stores, which has a December fiscal year, reported miserable results for their March quarter. A major reason for that had to be the massive ice storms in the month of January.

    My guess is that a large fund seeing the Gap results and seeing JCP unable to break $9 on a closing basis decided to bail. But the major thing being forgotten here is that JCP has a January fiscal year and they have ALREADY reported results which include the month of January. JCP's Q1 will NOT be negatively impacted by those ice storms at all and anyone concluding that Gap's results is what most retailers will report in Q1 is just plain wrong,. The "brilliant" funds strike again.

  • The stock was at $8.71 shortly after announcing that October same-store comps were positive for the first time in almost two years. Then pre-market the next day, management gave its forecast for the holiday quarter. On that piece of news, the stock surged to $9.44 and was to top ten bucks before the month was out.

    That, mind you, was BEFORE they announced the positive revenue surprise for the month of November.
    So if the stock was in the $9 area after management gave its holiday quarter guidance, why logically should it be just $6.52 guidance after those earnings were recently reiterated and when the comp;any is closing 33 of its worst-performing stores which will save $65M a year (22 cents a share)?

    The only reason is the steady drumbeat of negative blogs by the bears and shorts. How many negative blogs is Motley Fool going to put out each days with headlines such as "Is the End Near for JCP Penney," etc.
    The recovery is coming along nicely as one might expect when $2B in cash is thrown at the problem - but you would never know it by reading the sensationalistic headlines and negativity out of the likes of Motley Fool.

    But all of the innuendoes and outright lies will come to a screeching halt once the audited financial statements come out next month and management gives guidance for the upcoming quarter and fiscal year. In the short term, perception is reality but it is reality that will be dramatically CHANGING the perception once the actual numbers and forecasts are out.

  • It's largely because the key Jewish gift-giving holiday of Hanukkah fell in NOVEMER this year whereas in most years including 2012, it fell in the month of December. Jews make up about 2% of the American population but they account for about 3% of the spending.

    In my opinion, the reluctance of JCP to give specifics for the month of December means that they had a slight miss - perhaps 3% or 4%. I say SLIGHT miss because after all management did reiterate previously-given guidance for the November through January quarter and so if they beat by 4% or 5% in November, in order to simply meet guidance, they would have logically missed by perhaps 3% to 4% in the larger month of December assuming that January is about flat with estimates.

    Of the likely December miss, most of it is simply due to the different month that Hanukkah occurred this year. It's irrational to think that they were going great guns in October and November (including Black Friday and Cyber Monday) and then completely fell apart in December without there being logical reasons.

    JCP and other retailers got a tremendous lift in November in comparison with last year due to Hanukkah occurring in November this year but of course that hurt the DECEMBER comps this year when last year contained Hanukkah but this year didn#$%$ rather amazing that more analysts can't see this.

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