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North Atlantic Drilling Limited Message Board

flatlander_60048 49 posts  |  Last Activity: 17 hours ago Member since: Jul 8, 2000
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  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 17 hours ago Flag

    I listened to the FMI CC from Feb 24 to get some color on the Roche buy in. Several interesting points were apparent.

    1) FMI is also currently suffering with a large percentage of non-reimbursed tests. However, their Pharma genomic target testing balances the non-reimbursed work since it is 100% reimbursed.

    2) Physician to Physician portals are critical to expanding the use of the specific genomic tests. Physicians are looking for anecdotal information of how patients with similar genomic profiles responded to various treatments. this is in some way masked to comply with HIPA (i.e., no patient names or identifiers).

    3) FMI is also racing to develop/perfect liquid biopsy so there may be some head to head competition with GHDX. Although I think FMI is generally focused on broader spectrum characterization wheras GHDX has focused on specific tests to identify a subset othat might benefit from a specific treatment.

    4) Palmetto appears to be on the brink of expanding reimbursement for comprehensive Genomic profiling (CGP). See Quote Below.

    FL

    MolecularHealth will likely benefit from expanded payor coverage of CGPs, since last year the firm began offering testing on TreatmentMAP – an NGS-based diagnostic that gauges 500 cancer-linked genes and can help guide treatment strategies. Similarly, Foundation Medicine, which markets an NGS test called FoundationOne that analyzes around 200 cancer-linked genes, lauded the draft LCD.
    "We believe this first step [by Palmetto's MolDx] is an important one towards broader coverage of expanded indications as evidence continues to evolve," the company said in a statement. "Although the insurance coverage process in the US for new molecular diagnostic approaches is not straightforward or easy, we are very excited about this important development in setting the stage for increased access to CGPs and supporting our efforts to obtain broad reimbursement for FoundationOne."

  • Reply to

    Cup and handle

    by flatlander_60048 Feb 27, 2015 9:59 AM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Feb 28, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    SBS pulled back after breaking through the resistance at 6. Needs to successfully close above 6. We will see what next week holds.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Feb 27, 2015 4:48 PM Flag

    Thanks Hobo

    I felt like the post had too much of an agenda to warrant a response.

    The market cap is pretty minuscule so I have no problem seeing tremendous growth if they can secure Medicare reimbursement for prostate. How do you rate the competition in this area? MYGN's prolaris is the only similar test on the market that I'm aware of. They also project a huge ramp in sales the next couple years. I think there is room for both. I think Onco DX has partnered with the right organizations Clev Clinic and has produced validation studies that make me believe they are on the right path. The test appears to be sequenced in a way that can make it very actionable.

    The conference calls always stress that the Onco DX prostate test is not subject to the biopsy heterogeneity issues that other tests suffer from. Does anyone out there have any insights whether this is a jab at a deficiency of prolaris???

    Thanks

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 Feb 27, 2015 9:59 AM Flag

    I don't consider myself a big tech analysis investor, but it is pretty apparent that SBS is close to completing a cup and handle formation., which is often a buy signal for technical chartists. This is one of the few times I'm glad I averaged down my share costs.

    FL

  • The following RFP is on the SBS website.

    "As of today, February 9, will be available on Sabesp site technical consultation to receive suggestions and proposals to increase the availability of water for the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo attended by the Cantareira System. Those interested can send proposals to on February 23 . Later, Sabesp evaluate the material and may convene technical meetings to developments. This call is made ​​to create an initial communication channel between Sabesp and companies interested in helping the Company to expand the task of water security of São Paulo still in 2015 . "

    I view this as a positive. There may be some Ideas that the company can implement without outside consultants (i.e., the installation of pressure transducers to track sections of pipe where water leakage is occurring, lining or replacing existing pipes, etc.). Other major engineering projects (new dams, increased storage etc.) may be required to safeguard the water supply and meet growth expectations. Some of these projects may require significant capital outlay. These types of projects tend to have long design lives and will warrant significant bondholder interest.

    I'm glad to see proactive effort to address these issues.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 Feb 24, 2015 10:48 PM Flag

    r I read that the Real is the second weakest currency in the emerging markets after the Russian Ruble. This prompted me to compare the graph of SBS to the Russian index RSX. The 1 yr chart shows a whole lot of similarities. This suggests that the majority of the pain experienced in the last year has been currency/Brazilian economy related rather than attributed to the drought. However, since the end of QE3 the bottom has fallen out of commodity driven economies like Russia and Brazil. Long term I think SBS is a good investment (water and sanitation will not go out of vogue). These services are domestic rather than export driven leading me to think it should have already bottomed. The undertone seems to be that if the economy falters too much, the government will step in to limit the costs of these services. However, as others have mentioned, similar socialist policies have turned neighboring countries into basket cases.

    FL

  • Reply to

    FDA approval of Farydak

    by classshopper Feb 24, 2015 7:49 AM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Feb 24, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    Good to see the approval since the advisory committee had voted against approving the drug. I believe the vote was 5-2.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Feb 24, 2015 9:35 AM Flag

    Look's like yesterday was a miss. Thats the way it goes with thunderstorms. The encouraging thing is that unlike earlier (in December) the rainfall seems to be making a dent in the reservoir deficit.

    Forbes had an interesting article yesterday about Financial Minister Levy (I believe) instituting financial reforms that should set the stage for growth. Made it sound like a tightrope walk between the right amount of austerity and pro long term growth stimulus programs. The author sounded surprised to see the reforms coming out of the workers party. This is the first time I have heard anything positive about the Brazilian economy. Guess with the Petrobras corruption scandals things had to get better sooner or later.

    Anyone with a local vantage point see meaningful signs of economic improvement?

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Feb 23, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    I'm trying to convince the wife to make the same trip. She is concerned about crime. I told her it's kind of like Chicago, there are areas to avoid.

    Look for signs of major water and sewer system upgrades. If climate is shifting, they will need to take a page out of the Israeli handbook and minimize leakage from the system.

    I've been buying the past couple of weeks thinking SBS was oversold and that the drought was perhaps alleviating at least a little.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Feb 19, 2015 9:48 AM Flag

    The good news is that the recent rainfall appears to be flowing straight into the reserve capacity. As I mentioned before, groundwater levels have to recover before this would happen (otherwise the water would exfiltrate from the reservoirs into the GW), That appears to have happened, so future rainfall should help alleviate the deficit.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Feb 18, 2015 4:51 PM Flag

    Fortunately, the watershed must include areas to the north that appear to be getting more rain.

    FL

  • The SBS website has a graphical analysis of the day to day capacity of the reservoir system. Some really spotty thunderstorm deluges must be occurring in the area. The records at the airport indicate some pretty minimal rainfall (i.e. 1mm day for the last week) but some of the reservoirs are getting 40 mm or more of rain. In any case, the situation has improved quite a bit in the last week or so.

    I still think this drought underscores the vulnerability of a system solely dependent on limited reservoir capacity. SBS and the Brazilian government needs to develop alternatives.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 Feb 14, 2015 6:41 PM Flag

    The huge premium that Pfizer paid for HSP provides a pretty good indication of how much they now want to become a player in the biogenerics market. Funny a few years ago the analyst community ridiculed NVS for the earnings drag created by Sandoz. While Sandoz is No. 1 in biosimilars, the best is yet to come. They should be well positioned to launch a biosimilar Humira (i.e., the best selling drug of all time) next year.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 Feb 14, 2015 6:35 PM Flag

    Rated SBS a top emerging market capital allocator. Looks like the piece corresponded closely to the share price recovery we have seen the last week.

    FL

  • Reply to

    Earnings Call

    by oncotypedx Feb 11, 2015 9:52 AM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Feb 12, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    I'm still giving it more time. 19% growth in Western Europe while in a vacuum waiting for reimbursement codes is pretty encouraging. In the US, prostate medicare coverage remains the Key. They are guiding that this should happen late 2nd qtr or early 3rd qtr and will mark an inflection point. Their is so little float that is not in the hands of insiders it could get hard to re-enter GHDX if positive news is released.

    On a separate note NVTA IPO'd today and is currently trading at 17.20. GHDX holds 13.2 million shares meaning that nearly a quarter of their market cap is in NVTA. So the rest of GHDX (Breast, Prostate, Colon, liquid biopsy, database, etc) is valued $0.75 billion. The Baker Bros valued it at more than this even before the NVTA investment existed.

    This could be a pretty stealth way to play NVTA and still have the potential for major GHDX catalysts in the next 6 moths or so.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Feb 5, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    While the NHS news is certainly welcome, the financial terms were not released. Based on past experience owning NVS, NICE and NHS are very tough negotiators. I think it is likely that GHDX came to terms at about 50% of the Onco DX list price. That said it is still an important milestone and will lead to increased adoption elsewhere in western Europe.

    FL

  • Reply to

    Looks likes its raining

    by sonomastockpicker Feb 3, 2015 10:31 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Feb 4, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    I'm not from Sau Paulo but the fact of the matter is that rainfall is below average since the rainy season started in late November. I have not been as quick to attribute it to deforestation of the amazon basin. However, I'm sure data is being collected to further evaluate this hypothesis.

    I agree that the infrastructure should be looked at long and hard. Stemming leakage, encouraging use of gray water for landscaping, diversion of streams to capture more water etc. The capital markets might be more important than ever to SBS in making necessary improvements.

    I hope that the rain predicted the next few day puts a dent in the deficit. The reservoir capacity is lower than last year at this time and conditions last year were considered pretty dire.

    On the bright side, the share price of SBS seems to be putting in a bottom.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Feb 2, 2015 11:04 PM Flag

    No water and sanitation will remain critical. The equity markets may become even more important if SBS needs outside funding to implement fixes to the water predicament.

  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 Feb 1, 2015 9:21 PM Flag

    Announcements made late on Fridays are often an attempt to avoid scrutiny. I'm not sure if this is aimed at any specific director facing re-election.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 Jan 31, 2015 12:36 PM Flag

    The recent Forbes article about the Presidents new Genomic Testing initiative argues that a lot of the unlocked value in companies like GHDX lies in their databases of genomic sequencing and health histories.
    This seems to be a bit of a two edged sword. Greater sharing of this type of Genomic database information could lead others to develop similar tests, But access to this data might allow new indications and discoveries. I guess this is the intent, In the future there will be greater access, lower prices for genomic testing and more widespread use and reimbursements for the testing.. As a whole this will be good for medicine, society. However, it will necessitate that companies like GHDX continue to innovate.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidshaywitz/2015/01/31/feeling-like-the-president-has-just-passed-you-the-puck/2/

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