Strange that exelon was beat down last week. they are expected to be a major beneficiary of the new auction contracting that rewords reliability. companies will have to build in contingency to cover fines for non performance. nucs have historically been the most reliable power providers.
Lloyds was like concerned about insurance claimes which were linked to flooding. since then the jet stream has buckled more and the rains have decreased. The rainforest logging may have contributed. For an EL Nino year, it looks like the precipitation is still less than normal. I think the answer for SBS is to institute design changes and repairs to minimize leakage and to improve the reservoir storage capacity.
Rates will have to increase to improve the infrastructure.
Don't know if we will see much of a move up on earnings this qtr. However, I'm seeing some of the business that was lost in Chicago and the suburbs due to aggredation returning to EXC. Looks like some of the providers that won contracts had trouble dealing with nat gas pricing volatility. If they are successful geting the low carbon legislation passed they will have turned the corner.
Actually Bloomberg attributes the gains this week to SBS seeking tariff increases to cover gov tax increases. Looks like a run up on any news that costs won't be thrown on the backs of the shareholders.
Here is the quote.
Water utility Cia. de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo rallied 5.1 percent after the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo reported that Sabesp, as the company is known, plans to increase rates to cover a tax increase from the government.
Trading volume of equities in Sao Paulo was 4.13 billion reais ($1.31 billion), data compiled by Bloomberg show. That compares with a daily average of 6.77 billion reais this year, according to the exchange.
Do you think that is having any effect on SBS this morning? It is on a tear that does not appear to be attributed to overall strength in the EWZ or emerging markets.
These fluctuations are very pronounced. I wish I added some more shares that could be used to trade around a core position. I consider my current position a long term hold. Water/sanitation companies in growing population areas are a great investment. Based on the log term chart I'm looking for north of $15 in a couple years. The drought actually reinforces the need for a strong resource management company. Hopefully the government of Brazil continues to recognize this.
Actually only half right, I compared it to the wrong ave volume. Still a nice gain. Noticed that emerging market did well today.
Radar looks like the storms are building south of Sao Paulo. El Nino finally kicking in. Actually I'm in Chicago and it has been a cold rainy summer. We are looking at the first decent multiple day warm up this week.
Based on the fact that the Prolaris review which started in Oct 2014 is still apparently ongoing, I'm not anticipating any early approval of the Medicare Billing Codes. Anyone know whether the public comments will be available to the Public? If so, where can they be reviewed?
My guess is that the entrenched interests are burrying the review process with negative comments.
On a related note, Novartis is exploring an inovative model for the pricing of its new Heart Failure Drug. The pricing would be based on a low up front cost for access to the drug and than on an annual basis, NVS would received payments based on reductions in the rate of hospitalizations for heart failure. There are a whole lot of questions about implementing this type of a pricing model, but it does indicate a shifting emphasis to reducing the overall payer costs for providing care. GHDX fits this type of provider model. Perhaps some day, they may receive part of their payment based on unneccessary treatment avoided.
Obama & Rousseff doing joint press conf right now. US will have opportunity to compete on major infrastructure improvements in Brazil. Climate initiatives fighting deforestation & Climate change, promote democracy in Cuba ..... Brazil wants to double exports within the decade. Looking for us to simplify the regulatory framework (tariffs)........
Infrastructure improvements are definately the theme.
I don't place too much credence in Zacks. Looks like it will go back and test the lows around 4.8 again. I was hoping that the 1st qtr bottom and test was it, but I was a little concerned since it was only a couple of weeks between the bottom in late Jan and the test in mid Feb.
SBS looks to be in a better position than this time last year (more reserves, tariff authorization, some of the necessary reservoir management construction/diversion completed, interest rates stabilizing).
This is not a great environment for commodities and Brazil in particular. However, when it becomes apparent that the Levy reforms are working and Brazil is in rate cutting mode (probably in about 9 months or so), the economy should turn up. This could be the set up for a nice bull market similar to the US in the early 1980's when Volker was whipping inflation. This will be an interesting counter cycle to the rest of the developed word that will be in rate increase mode.
The big question is who will be the consumer of the commodities produced in Brazil? China, Latin America, US.
Guess we were all wrong,as indicated by Bloomberg, the sell off on Monday was triggered by a utility consumer watchdog fighting SBS's efforts at cost recovery for capitol infrastructure improvements. Very tenuous grounds, since the drought has proved that improvements are necessary. No way all the improvements will be made without passing costs along to the end users. As I mentioned, this needs to be structured in a way that most 20-30yr capitol improvement projects are structured. Go to the bond market and secure the best terms possible. The long term debt will be factored into the share price and the consumers will have to pay some increased rate to reflect the increasing scarcity of the resource. I do not think the 2016 dividend needl be off the table completely.
I think the sell off was triggered by this weeks Barrons article. Paradoxically it was upbeat ob Brazil indicating that it was nearing the end of tate hikes indicating that the Levy reforms were working and that one more to 14% was in the cards after which they were done and they would likely come down next year.
The negative thing was they projected a large increase in government lead infrastructure projects. Can anyone out there think of a greater need than securing a reliable fresh water supply for the Sau Paulo region?
I think that the market is over-reacting. SBS should be able to access the forein debt market at attractive rates given that these types of projects have reliable future revenue. The difference between domestic and foreign interest rates could make this very attractive for yeild seaking bond investors.
SBS will need to gain rate increases that support the future investments, but this is one of the fastest growing Cities in the world, it cannot continue with inadequate world water infrastructure. I think the Sao Paulo government will be supportive.
Did you attend or enjoy SF? Any interesting developments. Major share holders raise any significant issues etc.
Ignore any poster that posts B.S. preceded by the words "FACT". NVS is now the dominant Pharma and generics firm in the world. They have increased dividends every year since I have owned the stock and they lead all of Pharma in FDA approvals year in and year out. So I don't think there is a single element of truth anywhere in your post. I don't know anything about SSH, but with a ringing endorsement from you I'm unlikely to lookat it any further.
What was supposed to be a 45 day min review is streching out. This suggests a lot of comments from the entrenched interests. I think GHDX can expect alot of the same attempts to block and/or delay billing code approval . Interesting to note MYGN and GHDX are both experiencing significant share price erosion. While I stand by the comments that 2015 will be a positive transition year. I do not think the next few months will be easy. Hedge funds with investments in robotic surgery or proton beam radiation companies could jerk a low float stock like GHDX around.
Yes it is. GHDX is no different identifying a host of potential threats ranging from competition to earthquakes. The short position is not oversized and may reflect somewhat of a sector bet, or a macro economic bet by a hedge fund etc. In this case the short position may not fluctuate appreciably with positive news. As I have mentioned before, I think it is worth giving GHDX 2 to 3 quarters to see if the 20% + sales GROWTH they project materializes. The medicare reimbursement codes and approval of a reimbursement amount requested would go a long ways to establishing this path forward.
I did not look for comparibles based on similar future potential. Rather just chose them based on similar genomic testing business models.
FMI and EXAS had major run ups after specific news. That type of situation draws shorts that are betting on retracement on overvaluation. Looks like 1 - 15%0% short position is a baseline with no specific expectations. I think it would erode further as tangible evidence of the company's ability to executing on the growth expectations becomes apparent, Right now there is a healthy degree of skeptisism since the company has several more milestones to deliver on before the growth occurs.
Guess I don't read as much into the short position as you do. I think you are right that it might be hard to cover if a few more pieces come together for the company. But that is not yet an immediate concern.
I've noticed that for quite a while that GHDX press releases are met with a shrug. I can't think of too many that have had a lasting effect on the share price. The problem is a little bit like the Amazon effect. GHDX contends that they are hiring marketing staff and training them to build a platform to address a critical need/large market opportunity. The Street is saying we've seen the PR now show us that GHDX will actually be profitable. I think it will take a couple good profitable quarters to prove that the corner has been turned. The street might fear that larger investments will be steered to new projects (liquid biopsy, bladder cancer etc.) that will delay the return on investment.