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North Atlantic Drilling Limited Message Board

flatlander_60048 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 30, 2014 7:13 PM Member since: Jul 8, 2000
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  • Reply to

    One hundred dollars on Monday!

    by blackmonday1987 Aug 30, 2014 6:34 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Aug 30, 2014 7:13 PM Flag

    I wish that $100 was in the realm of possibility. However, I have been in NVS for more than a decade and don't think I've ever seen it move more than 3% on any news. I've been contemplating when to lighten up some since NVS has grown to be way too large a portion of my portfolio.

    I still like the direction Vasella set them on. If emulation is a sign of flattery, they have definitely set the pace for big pharma. Biogenerics, vision care are some examples of NVS identifying the trend and acting on it before others.

    This definitely comes at a good time as diovan generic competition heats up. I expect that biogeneric news to be a catalyst for the next couple of years.

    Good Luck Longs.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 Aug 25, 2014 10:26 PM Flag

    With Sunday's earthquake in Napa, I was thinking that GHDX might have some backlash. I think at some point in the near future they will need to look at opening a second lab facility in Europe. The earthquake risk is a major reason, but it will also help with marketing western Europe to show that the company is bringing jobs to the area. Obviously the acceptance of Onco DX breast, and prostate tests with reimbursement codes would be helpful. I'm sure they are waiting for the moment when the test volumes justify such a move. However, risk management may move them a little sooner.

    FL

  • Reply to

    Europe vs US

    by flatlander_60048 Aug 12, 2014 12:52 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Aug 13, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    Proton radiation, robotic surgery, hormone treatment, targeted drugs and even the physicians all have a stake in the over treatment of diseases like prostate cancer. On paper, the ACA seeks to switch the payment model to outcomes rather than treatment for treatment sake. I think it will take a while to switch the mindset of the medical community since it will result in shifting of the winner and looser landscape. The lobbyist power is firmly entrenched to maintain the status quo.

    I think the Europeans have come to grips with their limited resources and are taking steps before the US. I hate to admit it but they seem to be a couple of years ahead of the US in healthcare trends. Take biogenerics for example. They have had guidelines in place for biogeneric drug approvals for a couple years whereas we are still struggling with it in the states. Everyone realizes that it is necessary to control costs, but the entrenched interests and lobbyists are too strong for logical legislation to be passed quickly. With national debt pushing $17T we are able to kick this can down the road because borrowing costs are so low. As soon as interest rates kick up, this will no longer be the case. It will become immediately apparent that we as a nation cannot afford to spend 17% of our GDP on health care. Then companies that save money like GHDX will have a tailwind.

    Regards
    FL

  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 Aug 12, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    It has become apparent to me, that GHDX will experience better traction in Europe than in the US in the short term. Europe seems to have come to grips with their slow growth dilemma and is trying to trying to squeeze the most out of the GDP which means being more efficient in health care spending. This is the crux of the NICE and recent Spanish recommendations for Onco DX. In the US too much of the Health Care economy is still dependent on overtreating disease. As long as the analysts line up behind an Intuitive Surgical and others, it will be hard to get coverage for a company that is dependent on testing that stands to reduce costs for managing these diseases.

    The key is seems to be approval for the payer reimbursement codes for the prostate test. That is the tipping point for GHDX. Until that time, the build out of the sales force and the scientific research journals will continue to cause cash burn that will hold back the share price. Payers will endorse the test whole heartedly once the codes are approved since the ACA requires cost reduction and more efficient treatment. 2015 Looks Bright to me. However, I suspect that GHDX will be taken out before 2016 when the full measures of success are realized.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Jun 6, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    any thoughts on how the OncoDX prostate test will compare to OPTKO 4K test? One is based on genetic markers whereas the other is based on a blood test for relative differences in 4 different types of PSA readings. It seems that at some point head to head testing will be necessary to differentiate the Miogen, GH and Optko tests.

    FL

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