News that Sandoz is entering Phase 3 with biogeneric Humira is hitting Abbievie hard (down more than 3%). I believe biogenerics will increasingly become a growth driver for NVS. Don't be surprised of other huge targets in the near future. NVS has been very guarded with announcing the status of its biogeneric program. This will become increasingly more difficult as these products enter late stage clinical trials.
I believe FSYS was driven down by the news that Iran and Iraq are increasing their oil output and will not adhere to OPEC limits. Either the Saudi's or others will need to limit their output or supply is going to outstrip demand and the price of oil will come down. FSYS needs the nat gas to be significantly cheaper than oil.
4 more Meningitis (B Strain) cases reported at Univ of Cal Santa Barbara. Again a call for Bexsero to available. CDC will have a hard time standing in the way of importing the one vaccine for this strain. A few more outbreaks and the FDA will need to revisit the cost benefit decision on this one.
Princeton Meningitis Outbreak Prompts Vaccine Import to U.S.
By Drew Armstrong & Michelle Fay Cortez - Nov 16, 2013 11:00 PM CT
A meningitis outbreak at Princeton University of a strain not covered by vaccines available in the U.S. has prompted federal health officials to approve import of the drug in an effort to stop the illness.
Trustees at the Princeton, New Jersey-based Ivy League school where at least seven students since March have developed infections with the meningococcus B strain of the bacteria, will consider this weekend whether to use the vaccine, made by Novartis AG (NOVN), said Martin Mbugua, a spokesman for the school.
Enlarge image Princeton University
Pedestrians walk past a statue of former Princeton University president John Witherspoon near the East Pyne building on the school's campus in Princeton, New Jersey. Photographer: Emile Wamsteker/Bloomberg
The outbreak is the first of the meningitis B strain in a specific group, in which health officials have had the option to vaccinate, according to Barbara Reynolds, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta. The CDC had requested and received permission last week from the Food and Drug Administration to import the vaccine, a necessary protocol since the treatment hasn’t been approved in the U.S.
I followed the Baker Bros and loaded up in the mid 20's. However, there have been several ups and downs since I bought. The downdrafts have been severe enough to make me kick myself for not harvesting some gains by taking something off the table. I'm a strong believer that the prostate test will be a game changer. The Cleveland clinic testing and support bodes well. However, the value will have to be confirmed in several peer reviewed medical journals before there will be really widespread acceptance. Till then I think the sales ramp will be steady in the low double digit range. Eventually insurers will become big backers since the test will save millions of unnecessary procedures. This and geographic expansion will fuel many years of growth I might want to consider a pair trade where I might eventually short the makers/operators of proton treatment for prostate cancer. Competition can always change the landscape but for now GHDX looks to be well situated. I've decided to maintain a strong core holding and write covered calls on about 25% of my holdings when the share price reaches lofty periods.
Unfortunately the past has shown that NVS is too large and diversified to be rocketed by the roll out of any single product. On the plus side, the downside is pretty limited when a product gets yanked from the market or when an approval does not come through (think zelnorm and prexige).
Sabesp Declines in Sao Paulo as Rate Review Delayed
By Julia Leite - Aug 2, 2013 12:05 PM CT
Cia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo, Brazil’s biggest water utility, dropped the most in five weeks after regulators in Sao Paulo state further delayed a review of the rates the company charges customers.
Sabesp, as the company is known, fell 6 percent to 22.02 reais at 1:30 p.m. in Sao Paulo. A close at that level would be the steepest one-day retreat since June 24. It was the biggest decline in the benchmark Ibovespa (IBOV), which slid 0.2 percent.
The Sao Paulo state water and energy regulator Arsesp suspended the scheduled rate review last month because it didn’t have enough board members to proceed, Sabesp said July 16. The agency said in a statement on its website dated yesterday that it is maintaining the suspension after finding “inconsistencies” in documents the company submitted.
“This news is negative as the outcome will continue to be uncertain for longer and the possibility of a negative result cannot be ruled out,” Banco Bradesco SA analysts Vladimir Pinto and Renata Cristovao wrote in a note to clients today. “Especially in the current political climate that makes it difficult to carry out unpopular decisions.”
President Dilma Rousseff’s poll approval ratings have plummeted to the lowest of her term after more than 1 million Brazilians took to the streets in protest as the cost of living soars and economic growth forecasts drop. Demonstrations escalated from anger over bus fare increases to discontent over corruption, the quality of public services and government spending priorities.
Sabesp’s press office didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment on the regulator’s decision. The company’s shares have lost 24 percent this year, while the Ibovespa has falle
This has to qualify as one of the worst explanations of why Novartis is down 1%. "Revenue rose to $14.02 B
but it missed the estimate of $14.02B"???? Either it missed by some trivial amount akin to a rounding error or it missed some whisper number. My explanation is that NVS has run considerably and 1% is insignificant and a natural pause.
I'm anxious to here more about vaccines and biosimilars which I think are likely to be significant drivers of growth going forward. Unfortunately, Sandoz progress on biosimilar drugs is intentionally underplayed so as not to stir up the legal challenges from the targeted branded drug.
Novartis AG Earnings Cheat Sheet
Results: Adjusted Earnings Per Share increased 3.94% to $1.32 in the quarter versus EPS of $1.27 in the year-earlier quarter.
Revenue: Rose 0.74% to $14.02 billion from the year-earlier quarter.
Actual vs. Wall St. Expectations: Novartis AG reported adjusted EPS income of $1.32 per share. By that measure, the company beat the mean analyst estimate of $1.28. It missed the average revenue estimate of $14.02 billion.
Quoting Management: There was no comment from the management.
Price surged up today on the inventory report. The producers have moved rigs off of dry gas plays so I think that we will establish a balance in the $4.50 to $5.00 range. This combined with Coal Burner attrition should allow EXC to improve profitability. Now if the government would just stop subsidizing wind energy the market mechanisms could reach a balance on their own.
If this recovery is real and the jobless rate ticks down another couple of months, the Fed will be under pressure to terminate QE. At some point they need to figure out how to have self sustaining economic growth. This transition is going to be difficult because of the dysfunction in Washington. I think if congress could agree on a few stimulative policies it would take the pressure off of the Fed. This could be done with private money (Keystone, nat gas vehicle/infrastructure incentives etc.). If we do not find the exit mechanism we will continue to run large deficits and at some point the bond vigilantes will impose restraint. At that time our short long bond investment will look good. The other scenario is actual growth takes hold and the rates will creep up do to Fed tightening (again our investment will look good). The bad scenario is 5 more years of anemic growth with no change in rates. If this scenario occurs, I think we are close enough to rock bottom that we do not get hurt too much (just a stagnant investment).
I just convinced myself to buy some TBT. I need to limit how much since CGM Focus (which I own) also shorts the long bond.
Are you sure you can't buy ETF in your IRA? I've done it numerous times at TD Ameritrade. I think the problems come in when you want to purchase something that has a different tax treatment (K-1 required of MLP's etc.). Generally, I have not done well with any inverse type ETF. Hopefully this case is different. It's too hard to call the direction of the stock market. As such those vehicles need to be looked at as a short term play.
The potential downside here is that Bernanke continues QE longer than anyone can anticipate. I can ride out that type of scenario. RYJUX seems to outperform TBT in that type of environment. RYJUX holds more cash than TBT which takes out some of the fluctuations. Eventually interest rates will climb, and there will be an exodus out of long treasuries.
I bought it about 2 months ago thinking the same. I'm not sure if I would have been better off w TBT. The lower costs might allow it to outperform.
I had a limit order to buy at 10.15 in place since Tuesday. However, it did not execute today despite the daily chart indicating that the low daily range got down to 10.0.
I recently went long EXC but believe that your head is in the sand if you believe that all the pressure on the dividend is caused solely by merger related costs. We are in a major cycle where energy rates have plummeted. EXC has lost considerable power generation contracts throughout the Chicago area. This is largely due to the economic cycle but is also caused by the game changer of ultra cheap nat gas from fracking.
The good news is that we are at or very near the trough of this cycle. Coal based providers are dropping like flies Midwest generation, Ameren, etc.) and significant capacity is coming out of the market. Opportunities will abound for the survivors. EXC has picked up opportunities to operate existing Nucs and some of the nat gas fired facilities which are also being liquidated might provide attractive future opportunities. EXC's position is also improving because some poor renewable energy hedges expire in May.
EXC is on sound financial footing and is not nearly as leveraged as many of its competitors. It stands to be the 800 pound gorilla. However, that might require riding out the remainder of the cycle which could include some trimming of the div.
The chief nemesis in the future after this cylce plays out will continue to be State regulatory bodies like the ICC. However, this situation is also beginning to brighten. California and Mass. have recognized that these state agencies form the chief impediment to roll out of smart grid technology. They are crafting legislation which will allow the power companies to recover their investment for green energy initiatives like smart grid. Expect other states to follow their lead.
The US is in a very enviable position in the world since we have the cheapest power sources. I have to believe that someone in the executive or legislative branch has got to be smart enough to recognize that we could really press this advantage by improving the electrical grid infrastructure. It means lots of jobs and a chance of reverse decade old trends in manufacturing job losses. China is in the grips of crippling air pollution which has caused plant closings in the past weeks. Because they are tied closely to coal their economy will be throttled by the need for their population to breathe.
These macro-conditions are creating a setting which could soon be very favorable to clean power producers.
I heard an analyst on a local radio station opining that the US is getting ready to #$%$ a sales tax on internet commerce (largely targeting Amazon and similar on-line retailers). This may be part of a deficit reduction plan.
Seems like it would make a lot of sense, in one fell swoop it would generate considerable revenue (a portion of which would go to the state where the purchase was made), it would help level the playing field between on line and Brick and mortar retailers and it would help create jobs. The problem would seem to be the implementation.
If this occurred, BBuy would be a screaming buy.
The Mobile phone Business in Brazil or elsewhere? About 6 months ago TSU was sanctioned for poor service. I look at this as being similar to the temporary growing pains that ATT suffered about 3 to 5 years ago. The tower build out will improve in that sense TSU is no different than a lot of infrastructure needs in Brazil.
The 2nd beneficial thing that I see is that Apple is loosing power to make the service providers subsidize an ever bigger part of the initial cost. The Android models will keep the heat on so that Apples expansion to BRIC counties will not be on the same level as occurred in the US.