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Genomic Health Inc. Message Board

flatlander_60048 1528 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Jul 8, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Dividend?

    by flatlander_60048 Mar 18, 2015 12:31 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 19 hours ago Flag

    Unfortunately I have a tendency to be early in my investments. Given the strong dollar buying emerging markets on the cheap makes imminent sense to me. I think this in time will look alot like the 1998 Real devaluation. Which should allow SBS to rebound several hundred percent in a couple years. In the short term it may revisit the sub $5 area. I'll probably add a bit more, but I'm getting a full position now.

    Given everything thrown at SBS (Drought, Real devaluation, large scale construction effort to minimize water leakage and access the dead water in the reservoirs, etc,) it is still profitable. It is easy to paint a scenario whereby some of these costs subside, Meanwhile, the demand should grow at the rate population expands if not greater.

    Good Luck
    FL

  • Reply to

    Dividend?

    by flatlander_60048 Mar 18, 2015 12:31 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Mar 27, 2015 9:06 AM Flag

    Looks like $R 0.37. Yahoo seems to have the dividend yield miscalculated since they are missing the currency translation. Looks like it is around 2.25%.

    FL

  • Reply to

    Brazil President Impeachment?

    by asizzle10 Mar 25, 2015 2:31 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Mar 26, 2015 10:19 AM Flag

    The economic analysts appear nearly unanimous in the opinion that Rouseff will not be impeached. The demonstrations a little over a week ago appear short lived. A lot of the damage inflicted by Rouseff during her 1st term appears as if it is being undone by Economic Minister Levy. Due to the high inflation rate and freefall of the Real their appears to be a mandate to shift from some of the socialist policies of Rouseff. The Brazilian situation appears similar to the US in the late 1970's (Stagflation- little growth but high inflation). They are targeting +1.5% GDP by the end of the year and are implementing some cost controls on Gov spending. The playbook for this situation has been tested in the past by Paul Volker. That is why I think that Brazil could be better off in the long run than some of the Developed economies with massive Debt, Deficits and a demographic older population that will soon demand increased benefits. The playbook for exiting quantitative easing and avoiding deflation are much more controversial.

    I think you are right that impeachment would be a big plus to the economy, Most of SBS's share price problems can be directly attributed to the currency freefall and not necessarily the drought. These are largely the result of policies undertaken during Dilma's last term. However, I don't think impeachment is in the cards, unless there is a smoking gun on the Petrobras scandal.

    SBS similarly slumped in 1998 when the currency similarly devalued. The stock went up 500% in the 10 years that followed. I'm hopeful that this could be a similar moment.

    FL

  • Onco DX breast received several Palmetto CPT reimbursement codes at the end of December ((cut and Paste link below). Anyone know whether this appreciable impacts the ability secure medicare reimbursement? Or are most of the tests conducted under one of the remaining "proposed categories" that are still seeking reimbursement approval?

    FL

    http://www.palmettogba.com/palmetto/MolDX.nsf/DocsCat/MolDx~Browse%20By%20Topic~Covered%20Tests~Oncotype%20DX%20Breast%20Cancer%20Assay%20Coding%20and%20Billing%20Guidelines%20(M00003)

  • Reply to

    Dividend?

    by flatlander_60048 Mar 18, 2015 12:31 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Mar 23, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    I definitely view SBS in the same light. However, I do have concerns that the cantierra reservoir does not appear to recharge quickly after the drought/drawdown. I think SBS will need to explore alternatives which might be expensive. Of course as a shareholder I believe that the users should pay to recoup capital investments that are intended to stave off future crisis. I'm not entirely sure how the largest shareholder would view this.

    I started buying too early but averaged down to a basis in the low 5's. If you go to the SBS site and download the long term chart it looks like SBS has been in a long term channel (since late 1998)) if this trend holds it looks like it could run to 45 Real (say $!5 US) in the next 2 years or so.

    I agree that the demand for water and sanitation will stay strong. SBS is primarily the victim of 1) currency fluctuation and 2) drought. Seems like Brazil could be better situated in the near future than a lot of developed economies. They have a relatively young demographic, 2) doesn't look like their debt and deficit are huge relative to GDP, 3) they have much higher inflation rates. Most of the world is struggling with 0% rates or deflation. The playbook for getting handle on inflation is a lot more time tested than dealing with deflation.

    Brazil needs to deal with some factors that are largely out of their hands weak commodity demand, worldwide currency devaluation, as well as poverty. Looks like Levy is working to undo some of the problems caused by Dilma's 1st term.

    Either way the valuations look much more stable for these life sustaining services than alot of other investments.

    FL

    FL

  • Reply to

    Link to Reservoir Levels

    by asizzle10 Mar 20, 2015 12:30 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Mar 20, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    It's on the SBS site under Fountains (when English translation is on). Cantareira is currently at 16% compared to 8.2% in Mid may of last year. I'm surprised that it seems to fill as slowly as they report. The reservoir must not be attached to a large watershed (maybe a reservoir without river capturing water from much larger area). Unfortunately, some of the reservoirs which are at capacity Rio Grande are not interconnected to the Cantareira distribution system for Sao Paulo. Good news is the starting point looks like it will be better than last years dry season. Bad news is it is not great enough to lift the incentives for reducing demand, which will (at present) affect cash flow in 2015. Looks like the Company Conf Call is March 30. We should have some Idea how much of a dividend they can support.

    FL

  • Reply to

    New Agreement ?

    by optsyeagle Mar 19, 2015 1:15 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Mar 20, 2015 10:06 AM Flag

    Unfortunately, I could not find a more detailed description of the agreement that was translatable in English. It looks like a max revenue cap based on the number of hookups and the negotiated rate. However, I do not know how it compares to previous years. Does it reflect the requested 6% Tariff increase?

    If I'm right in interpreting this, the cap may pose a big problem in that it may act as a disincentive to capital investments to secure the water supply in times of drought. Sao Paulo should not have to rely on just in time rainstorms to safeguard capacity.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Mar 20, 2015 9:59 AM Flag

    I don't think any of those releases would surprise any of us following GHDX. Wider application of the test is assured. What I can't find out yet is what the reimbursement rate in the UK or Germany. I'm sure that the EU and UK will negotiate hard to maximize the cost savings that the Onco DX will bring to their health care systems. GHDX will need to weigh the pricing against any demands/constraints that additional EU test volume will place on their lab facilities.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 Mar 18, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    Any long time holders have any thoughts whether SBS will pay a dividend. From what I can see of the financial history it looks like it is generally declared in late March with ex-div in April. The drought cut into cash flow, but some dividend payout would reassure investors.

    FL

  • Reply to

    Debt Structure

    by flatlander_60048 Mar 11, 2015 1:49 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Mar 12, 2015 7:28 PM Flag

    I've become convinced that more of SBS' share price collapse is associated with the currency issues. The Real has weakened tremendously vs the US$. The majority of the fear appears to be that companies with debt denominated in us$ will have a hard time paying it off when their earnings are in the weakening local currency (REAL). I think SBS is getting plastered (not today) by the tendency for foreign traders to trade ETFs and not look at the debt structure of each individual company. From what I can gather it looks like 2/3 of SBS' debt is in local currency. another 20% is denominated in Euros (another weakening currency) and the remainder is a mixed bag including the $. So it looks like very little of the debt is subject to currency risk.

    The rain situation is just another strong reason to continue averaging down. SBS is approaCHING TWICE THE reservoir CAPACITY that existed last May. Also, looks like the dividend announcement should come at any time. It will be interesting to see what type of use incentives/restrictions are employed during the Dry season.

    FL

  • Reply to

    Debt Structure

    by flatlander_60048 Mar 11, 2015 1:49 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Mar 11, 2015 5:56 PM Flag

    From what I could see under the Investor link on the webpage it looks like the majority of the bonds that come due in 2020 are 1)private placement and 2)Euro bonds. These would not seem to be as sensitive to US$ strengthening, With the reservoirs filled to 67% greater capacity than last May, it would look like some of the restrictions might be scaled back slightly,

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 Mar 11, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    Based on yahoo it looks like SBS has about 3.3$B in long term debt. SBS's website suggests that 65% of the debt is in local currencies ant 35% is in foreign currencies. They do not break out which foreign currency. Can anyone confirm that it is US $ ? If so, then about $1.2B even with the currency slide does not appear to justify the share price slide.

    Any thoughts.

    FL

  • Reply to

    Cup and handle

    by flatlander_60048 Feb 27, 2015 9:59 AM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Mar 6, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    Looks like we go back and visit the sub $5 territory.

  • flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Mar 6, 2015 10:35 AM Flag

    I voted for him vs McCain but still can't believe that logic does not prevail in this instance. The Republicans should push the overide vote and let it be known that the next lives lost in a crude derailment are squarely on the heads of those that voted no. God forbid, but the odds of a Quebec type disaster go up the longer this country allows this to go on.

    I don't even own TRP anymore and I get #$%$ off about how long this has dragged out.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 Mar 6, 2015 9:37 AM Flag

    FDA approves Zarxio (biogeneric Neupogen) for 5 indications this should be a pretty big shot in the arm for Sandoz. I suspect that we will look back in a couple years that this was the start of Sandoz becoming the 500 lb gorilla in biogenerics.

    FL

  • Obama is an idiot. How many more trains derail before they realize that pipelines are orders of magnitude safer.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 Mar 2, 2015 4:43 PM Flag

    I listened to the FMI CC from Feb 24 to get some color on the Roche buy in. Several interesting points were apparent.

    1) FMI is also currently suffering with a large percentage of non-reimbursed tests. However, their Pharma genomic target testing balances the non-reimbursed work since it is 100% reimbursed.

    2) Physician to Physician portals are critical to expanding the use of the specific genomic tests. Physicians are looking for anecdotal information of how patients with similar genomic profiles responded to various treatments. this is in some way masked to comply with HIPA (i.e., no patient names or identifiers).

    3) FMI is also racing to develop/perfect liquid biopsy so there may be some head to head competition with GHDX. Although I think FMI is generally focused on broader spectrum characterization wheras GHDX has focused on specific tests to identify a subset othat might benefit from a specific treatment.

    4) Palmetto appears to be on the brink of expanding reimbursement for comprehensive Genomic profiling (CGP). See Quote Below.

    FL

    MolecularHealth will likely benefit from expanded payor coverage of CGPs, since last year the firm began offering testing on TreatmentMAP – an NGS-based diagnostic that gauges 500 cancer-linked genes and can help guide treatment strategies. Similarly, Foundation Medicine, which markets an NGS test called FoundationOne that analyzes around 200 cancer-linked genes, lauded the draft LCD.
    "We believe this first step [by Palmetto's MolDx] is an important one towards broader coverage of expanded indications as evidence continues to evolve," the company said in a statement. "Although the insurance coverage process in the US for new molecular diagnostic approaches is not straightforward or easy, we are very excited about this important development in setting the stage for increased access to CGPs and supporting our efforts to obtain broad reimbursement for FoundationOne."

  • Reply to

    Cup and handle

    by flatlander_60048 Feb 27, 2015 9:59 AM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Feb 28, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    SBS pulled back after breaking through the resistance at 6. Needs to successfully close above 6. We will see what next week holds.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Feb 27, 2015 4:48 PM Flag

    Thanks Hobo

    I felt like the post had too much of an agenda to warrant a response.

    The market cap is pretty minuscule so I have no problem seeing tremendous growth if they can secure Medicare reimbursement for prostate. How do you rate the competition in this area? MYGN's prolaris is the only similar test on the market that I'm aware of. They also project a huge ramp in sales the next couple years. I think there is room for both. I think Onco DX has partnered with the right organizations Clev Clinic and has produced validation studies that make me believe they are on the right path. The test appears to be sequenced in a way that can make it very actionable.

    The conference calls always stress that the Onco DX prostate test is not subject to the biopsy heterogeneity issues that other tests suffer from. Does anyone out there have any insights whether this is a jab at a deficiency of prolaris???

    Thanks

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 Feb 27, 2015 9:59 AM Flag

    I don't consider myself a big tech analysis investor, but it is pretty apparent that SBS is close to completing a cup and handle formation., which is often a buy signal for technical chartists. This is one of the few times I'm glad I averaged down my share costs.

    FL

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