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Genomic Health Inc. Message Board

flatlander_60048 28 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 19, 2014 5:08 PM Member since: Jul 8, 2000
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  • I got interested in CGM Focus since it had the ability to go long or short. Unfortunately Heebner appears to be a perma-bull. With QE being phased out, global deflationary evidence, very high CAPE valuations and the threat of Ebola, one would have thought he would have established a few more shot positions (beside the long bond). The last two times QE ended the market reacted similarly, so it does not take much of a crystal ball to figure out that this was a good time to go short. Fortunately I've done so by buying TWM in some of my brokerage accounts. Does anyone know if Hebner has ever used the short position effectively??


  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 Oct 10, 2014 1:51 PM Flag

    I believe that GHDX is up today because Exact Sciences received a higher than expected Medicare reimbursement rate for their colon cancer test. I think the market is warming up to the idea of genomic testing to reduce health care costs.


  • flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Oct 10, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    Good thing you got out of that position. Any company that shows strength in this kind of a *&^%&* MARKET IS NOT A GOOD SHORT CANDIDATE. Besides there are too may potential positive catalysts that could turn against you.


  • Reply to

    Has anyone noticed

    by madmanshooter Oct 2, 2014 9:29 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Oct 3, 2014 6:40 PM Flag

    I think it has held up for the reasons outlined in my previous post. The market the past couple weeks has been anticipating a deflationary environment. GHDX is precisely the type of stock that can do well in a deflationary environment. Stocks that wring costs out of the system (especially by reducing costs to over leveraged governments of developed countries with aging demographics) will do well.

    Today's job data was good and may throw some cold water on the idea of deflation in the US. Don't think there is much doubt that Japan and Europe are headed down a deflationary slope.

    Another stock I like based on this investment theme is NVS. However it has already run up. I sold 25% of my holdings since I had big gains but would reload if it drops into the 80's. NVS is the #1 biogeneric drug producer in the world. $64B in biologic drugs come off patent the next couple years (including Humira the best selling drug of all time.

    Always appreciate intelligent comments in what is otherwise a complete wasteland.


  • Reply to


    by flatlander_60048 Sep 30, 2014 4:15 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Oct 1, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    GHDX is trading well thru the small cap carnage going on now. II believe this is a function of four factors:

    1) GHDX did not experience much of any share price run up the past several years.

    2) If we are headed into a deflationary environment (which much of the market seems to be betting on) then companies that wring costs out of high gov expenditure areas such as health care are in a sweet spot.

    3) The PR machine is cranking up in advance of an anticipated reimbursement code for the prostate test. This code will mark a turning point.

    4) The float is small and most shares are held by insiders. trading out of GHDX has risks, since GHDX may be hard to re-enter on any good news.


  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 Sep 30, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    GHDX appears interestingly positioned at the crossroads of a graying demographic that will need more cancer related services especially with regards to making informed decisions. On the other side are the reluctant payers who will be required to get as much bang for the buck (or Euro) as possible. The fact of the matter is the debt laden developed countries will have no choice but to try to be more efficient in health care spending. Europe seems to be crossing this bridge before the US as indicated by NICE putting the clamps on spending in the UK.

    My biggest question is whether OncoDX prostate test is better then other tests (similar to the Onco DX Breast Cancer tests)? The GHDX partners (Cleveland Clinic, UC San Fran, CPDR) are appear strong and GHDX emphasizes the advantages such as not as susceptible to heterogeneity issues, . The PR department seems to be cranking up the presses lately. Hopefully this is the precursor to reimbursement approvals.


  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 Sep 24, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    GHDX tends to put out a few fluff news releases. However, enlisting Joe Torre to put a face on prostate cancer is likely to be very helpful. The battle to up the awareness of genomic testing's role in treating this disease will benefit from having a spokesman that garners name recognition from most men. Referral/testimonial/personal accounts tend to be some of the strongest educational and sales tactics.


  • Reply to

    Time for a Little Science and Common Sense

    by optsyeagle Sep 22, 2014 4:07 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Sep 23, 2014 9:50 PM Flag

    Guess I do not understand SBS either. Seems like the unit pricing of water should increase in order to drive SBS to develop alternate sources such as groundwater, pipelines from more distal supply areas, etc. They seem to be totally focused on the demand side by offering price cuts for reduced usage. Even if the rain begins falling again the money spent developing alt water sources is a good investment in the future.


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