While some of the Nucs cleared bid that were not expected to (Byron) others did not (Clinton and two of the Quad Cities.). The PMJ bid polar vortex considerations have certainly helped prop up pricing. However, it does not solve the issue. During periods of peak wind energy production, EXC gets nothing for generating power. Yet it cannot easily shut down during these periods. Legislators who approved tax credits to build out so many wind farms in Illinois are now being put on the spot. Net-Net the economic benefit to downstate towns where Nucs are located is far greater than the Wind Farms. Additionally, Illinois has no hope of meeting its carbon footprint reduction goal without the Nuclear plants.
EXC has been lining up bipartisan support for the low carbon bill and have continued meeting with Speaker Madigan. I expect a full press on this issue going into the Spring legislative session.
I've been out of ZBRA for nearly a decade but used Friday's weakness to get back in. I think about half the position is a trade since ZBRA is stuck if a relatively well defined downward trending channel. I also believe that ZBRA is worthy of a long term investment. I can't think of a company that has a more diversified client base. The Motorola integration has not gone well, however I have to believe they can make this work and pay down the debt. The market is looking to punish leveraged businesses. However, with stable clients, good products and cash flow, ZBRA has the potential to bring efficiency to their clients and is clearly a survivor and probably an acquisition candidate.
Don't know how serious you guys are. I'm long EXC but would never go above 10% of my total investment portfolio. What were the odds that a title wave would lead to a meltdown at Fukushima in 2011. The answer is too low to ever estimate. Yet it happened and it devastated Tepko shareholders. Things like meteors, floods, terrorist, etc. happen and cannot be anticipated.
$44 target! More interesting is that they performed a survey of urologists that indicates the Onco DX prostate test has better visibility than the MYGN Prolaris test.
I had thought of reducing my position at the end of 2015 in anticipation of overall market downdraft (nothing specific to GHDX). However, I decided that the growth over the next 4 or 5 years would make such a move too risky. The float is simply too low to risk jumping in and out.
Lets see who the fool is, provide your reasoning. I did well the last time I went into Ag (early 2012) with a similar trade.
I look at it as a hedge against drought related increases in food costs.
You don't think the Fed has not telegraphed the hike and allowed investors time to price it into EXC's shares? History shows that value stocks outperform growth (the sector currently leading the market) when the Fed is tightening. My guess is that the market long since priced several percentage point hikes into EXC's share price. It could very well rise in 2016 along with the value index.
The 1$ decrease is supposed to recognize efficiency and cost savings gained by the implementation of smart grid. Because smart grid was paid for by the rate payer it is just providing them some return for the investment to improve the system. The PMJ Auction bids include increases for reliability premium (on the generation side) that more than make up for the grid improvement rebate on the delivery side. So yes the div is safe.
Nat gas is below $2.00 and like or not EXC is viewed as competing against generating facilities fueled by nat gas. Hence the slide. The continued shutdown of nat gas rigs, and the export of nat gas from Cove Point and Cheneire will eventually restore the the supply demand balance and stop the nat gas price declines.
The Global warming agreement provides another reason for the country to maintain its commitment to Nucs. Renewables will continue to suffer from problems meeting base load demand.
The old adage that the cure for low nat gas prices is low nat gas prices will take a while to play out. Rigs are being taken off line but existing wells will continue to produce and there is a lot of nat gas in storage. The warm winter will certainly not help deplete the stored supplies. The 1st phase of Sabine Pass LNG export will become operational during the 1st Qtr of 2016. Cove Point (D) export as well as additional phases of Sabine should start exporting in 2017. My guess is that the commodity cycle is at a low right now and will begin correcting/normalizing through 2016. I think it has and is being priced into EXC.
I saw a forecast for a rough hurricane season in 2016 (an aftermath of the El Nino this year). If it shuts down the nat gas production in the Gulf a few times nat gas would climb quickly into next fall.
Bottom line, is that there are numerous factors working to depress EXC share price right now (i.e., Hedge Fund arbitrage shorting EXC before POM deal closes, warm winter, low nat gas pricing, low energy pricing in the Midwest, absence of State Low carbon legislature relief, etc.). None of these appear to be long lived, creating a buying opportunity if an investor is capable of being patient. In some ways the current low price is helpful to EXC. It is easier to go to legislators looking for relief when your stock is trading at 15 year lows and you have cut the div than it is when you are flying high and maintaining record high div.
I'm about half way thru 10 Pay LTC payments (purchased thru AARP) and dread this time of year. For the past two years I've watched while GNW share price decreased and while the rating agencies issue multiple downgrades. Financial advisers (not the same ones that sold the policy) say to keep making the payments but it is concerning to see GNW the largest LTC insurance provider struggling. From what I can see, the policy is backstopped by an insurance fund managed by the state where my wife and I live -ILLINOIS-. Now that makes me feel alot better.
Given the inability of private insures to adequately manage the risks of this insurance line, what are the chances that Medicaid (the largest and last resort for many Americans) will be able to withstand the financial burden when the Baby Boomers hit peak nursing home years (maybe 15-20 yrs from now)?
Hoping this thing gets turned around!
As a geological engineer I can tell you there is a relationship. The majority of the shale wells completed have a rapid depletion rate and 50% of the capacity is used within a year or two of placing the well into production (unfortunately Yahoo does not allow me to provide links to references). Therefore if new wells are not being drilled, the declining capacity is not being replaced. Offshore reservoirs do not deplete as rapidly and can be expected to produce for longer periods but will also deplete and will need to be replaced. Secondly, when a crew is laid off, they may go on to find work in another area or different field altogether. Therefore the ability to ramp up may be affected. Much of this is a function of the severity of the downturn. In the Oil patch, the Saudis seem pretty intent on destroying some of the capacity in N. America. So I would not be surprised if they continue to produce at the current rate even after Iran oil goes on line. So we might be in this situation for another year or more. This is relevant to the nat gas industry since some of the gas is a biproduct of oil production. If your unemployment benefits were running out would you stick around waiting to be called back given the glutted market?
So I respectively disagree, price will follow the utter decimation of the exploration budgets. The Nat gas industry is in preservation mode right now trying to outlast competitors. The rig shutdowns will portray higher nat gas prices in the next year or two. At least that is the historical pattern.
I've been contemplating the move. However, I run a lot of old scientific software that the vendors don't update to new operating systems. I'm currently running Windows & but have an emulation program that allows XP software to function. I'm a little concerned to switch to 10, thinking that the emulation software and scientific programs will not function well. Guess I'll test the 10 upgrade on another lessor used computer before trying it on my business computer.
Went back and read old press releases and headlines. IT appears that DGI is teaming in some areas Forestry for lumber supply (tree health), Fisheries to evaluate temperature and salinity changes to aid fishery management etc. I think this is an area where the potential for vertical growth can expand greatly. The terrorist high resolution satellite imagery market can only expand given the horrible attacks in France.
EXC is trading in lockstep with the price of Nat Gas. Nat Gas is threatening to break $2 mBTU a price not seen since the late 1990s. What the market does not seem to recognize is that the PMJ bid indicated a game change in the way that polar vortex reliability is now being factored into the bid. In 2014, Both coal and nat gas electricity producers had difficulties when nat gas supplies were drawn down for home heating and coal conveyors and rail were slowed by cold weather. The PMJ auction treatment should be recognized as a Put option for the price of EXC. However, it is not being recognized. As such, the company profitability has improved while the share price has fallen. In the short term this condition probably marks a great buying opportunity, since historically nat gas has not remained at these depressed levels for long periods.
Not coincidently, the last time Nat gas broke $2 mbtu was 1997-1998 was also a strong El Nino year. In other words this is the traders short term bet on unseasonably warm weather conditions this winter. Eventually, long term fundamentals will trump this trade. Typically, Nat gas below $2 will result in a shut in of drilling activity. This will result in high prices in subsequent years.
Let's see if this plays out as in the past.
Nat gas has dropped $0.5 in a month and $0.37 in a couple weeks the EIA henry hub prices for this week do not come out until tomorrow. The correlation to EXC is quite strong. Someone want to spend the time to prepare a scatter plot for Squeak? My guess is that someone is front running the EIA release betting on more weakness in tomorrow's numbers.
Decided to take the analysis a little further. The Rig count in N. america in 2014 was 2330. As of this week the number of rigs is now 943. A total of 13 rigs shut down last week alone. Get the Idea where this trend is headed?
Another 17 nat gas rigs shut down last week. Rig count is now less than 50% of the number of rigs operating last year at this time. Given the warm winter, it is safe to assume more rigs will shutdown in the coming weeks.
It will be interesting to see how much is in storage at the end of this winter.
U.S. Breakout Information This Week +/- Last Week +/- Year Ago
Oil 541 17 524 -995 1536
Gas 168 -17 185 -170 338
Back in 2013 it was estimated that Onco DX Prostate test was estimated to be priced similar to the Breast test (i.e., about $3800). Does anyone have any information on what CMS is reimbursing the prostate test at? I assume we will find out in February when 4th qtr earnings are announced.