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Genomic Health Inc. Message Board

flatlander_60048 7 posts  |  Last Activity: May 10, 2016 3:06 PM Member since: Jul 8, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Sugar, Sugar,Sugar!

    by elahens Mar 2, 2016 1:52 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Mar 30, 2016 10:26 AM Flag

    Bought into a small position at the start of the week, I generally don't like chasing after sizable gains, however CZZ is still relatively low relative to historical share prices and I was afraid of it getting away without a decent pullback . So far it looks good. The majority of the run appears to be occurring on the weakness in the US $. I'm seeing similar run up in SBS.

    I heard of the world wide sugar deficit in 2016 (primarily due to the weather in Aisia, as you mentioned). However, it is not exactly clear how levered CZZ is to raw sugar pricing, they have diversified extensively into energy, transportation, etc. I'm not proficient in Portuguese, so it is hard to get the info from the Annual reports and the translate feature provides incomplete data. From what I can see the Raizen unit (which I believe includes raw sugar) appears to account for about 55% of CZZ earnings. However, Raizen may also include other non-sugar related earnings. Any insights?

    FL

  • Reply to

    Think management cares?

    by madmanshooter Mar 28, 2016 7:49 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Mar 30, 2016 4:34 PM Flag

    What would you propose they do? They have set reasonable goals that add value to the Co. (i.e., secure medicare coverage of prostate, launch liquid biopsy, etc.). They deal in an industry that requires proof of the value of the product, so they must maintain the scientific demeanor. They have done a few investor conferences and ASHTO, so I don't fault them. There is a site that ranks biotechs on whether they are unfriendly shareholder (due to option dilution, secondaries etc.). I don't remember GHDX being high on the list in a negative context (i.e., acting in a manner that was not consistent with shareholder interests).

    Fact of the matter is that if GHDX executes on their strategic initiatives the share price will follow. They are balancing the need to build out a urology and European sales force with shareholder desires to maximize profitability.

    That said, I sold off about half my shares in January due to macro-market concerns for all US stocks. I've started adding back shares slowly.

    FL

  • Reply to

    Think management cares?

    by madmanshooter Mar 28, 2016 7:49 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Mar 31, 2016 10:31 AM Flag

    With so much of the company shares in the hands of the Baker Bros, GHDX is vulnerable to takeover, and I think it will happen at some point. However, big pharma will want more evidence that a GHDX acquisition would be accretive. As such, they are back to executing on their plan. If they show that $1b in sales by 2020 is realistic and turn the corner on profitability w growth (as they have guided to for this year), interest will pick up.

    The Supreme Court decision of a few years ago (against MYGN) is problem for GHDX. It eliminated a barrier from competitors offering similar tests for the same gene sequence. If GHDX wanted to prime the company for acquisition it would develop tests to evaluate the specific effectiveness of various drugs. I think they are shunning this space.

    FL

  • Reply to

    Sugar, Sugar,Sugar!

    by elahens Mar 2, 2016 1:52 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Mar 31, 2016 10:42 AM Flag

    Thanks, I definitely have more homework to complete before expanding the position. I'm not as interested in the ethanol and energy component given the potential for a double dip in the price of oil. I am interested in raw sugar given that a 10 to 15% supply deficit is projected for this summer. CZZ is also a good play on the recent weakening of the US $. Who knows Brazilians may even benefit by ousting Rousseff .

    FL

  • Reply to

    Think management cares?

    by madmanshooter Mar 28, 2016 7:49 PM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 Apr 1, 2016 10:04 AM Flag

    One area you might be right on is the analysts estimates for this quarter have come way down. Some of this is a result on last quarters tepid guidance. However, one could assume that the reimbursement software delays will be worked out providing significant upside as some of the deferred sales are captured.

    In many companies that I follow, you would do far better acting in a completely opposite manner as what the analysts are suggest. I think with few screaming buys out there, the analysts try to create opportunities for their clients.

    FL

  • flatlander_60048 by flatlander_60048 May 10, 2016 11:58 AM Flag

    Take a look at Morningstar Insider tab. The CEO and CFO stepped up their compensation substantially then deliver quarter after quarter of pathetic performance.

    Basically ZBRA a once great company is uninvestable.

    FL

  • Reply to

    Compensation for pathetic performance

    by flatlander_60048 May 10, 2016 11:58 AM
    flatlander_60048 flatlander_60048 May 10, 2016 3:06 PM Flag

    With the debt load ZBRA has taken on we can now expect that the familiar cycle of asset flipping will continue. What started with Symbol and went to Motorola and now ZBRA seems bound for Honeywell or GE at a steep discount.

    FL

GHDX
26.11-0.48(-1.81%)Jun 24 4:00 PMEDT