I don't place too much credence in Zacks. Looks like it will go back and test the lows around 4.8 again. I was hoping that the 1st qtr bottom and test was it, but I was a little concerned since it was only a couple of weeks between the bottom in late Jan and the test in mid Feb.
SBS looks to be in a better position than this time last year (more reserves, tariff authorization, some of the necessary reservoir management construction/diversion completed, interest rates stabilizing).
This is not a great environment for commodities and Brazil in particular. However, when it becomes apparent that the Levy reforms are working and Brazil is in rate cutting mode (probably in about 9 months or so), the economy should turn up. This could be the set up for a nice bull market similar to the US in the early 1980's when Volker was whipping inflation. This will be an interesting counter cycle to the rest of the developed word that will be in rate increase mode.
The big question is who will be the consumer of the commodities produced in Brazil? China, Latin America, US.
Guess we were all wrong,as indicated by Bloomberg, the sell off on Monday was triggered by a utility consumer watchdog fighting SBS's efforts at cost recovery for capitol infrastructure improvements. Very tenuous grounds, since the drought has proved that improvements are necessary. No way all the improvements will be made without passing costs along to the end users. As I mentioned, this needs to be structured in a way that most 20-30yr capitol improvement projects are structured. Go to the bond market and secure the best terms possible. The long term debt will be factored into the share price and the consumers will have to pay some increased rate to reflect the increasing scarcity of the resource. I do not think the 2016 dividend needl be off the table completely.
I think the sell off was triggered by this weeks Barrons article. Paradoxically it was upbeat ob Brazil indicating that it was nearing the end of tate hikes indicating that the Levy reforms were working and that one more to 14% was in the cards after which they were done and they would likely come down next year.
The negative thing was they projected a large increase in government lead infrastructure projects. Can anyone out there think of a greater need than securing a reliable fresh water supply for the Sau Paulo region?
I think that the market is over-reacting. SBS should be able to access the forein debt market at attractive rates given that these types of projects have reliable future revenue. The difference between domestic and foreign interest rates could make this very attractive for yeild seaking bond investors.
SBS will need to gain rate increases that support the future investments, but this is one of the fastest growing Cities in the world, it cannot continue with inadequate world water infrastructure. I think the Sao Paulo government will be supportive.
Did you attend or enjoy SF? Any interesting developments. Major share holders raise any significant issues etc.
Ignore any poster that posts B.S. preceded by the words "FACT". NVS is now the dominant Pharma and generics firm in the world. They have increased dividends every year since I have owned the stock and they lead all of Pharma in FDA approvals year in and year out. So I don't think there is a single element of truth anywhere in your post. I don't know anything about SSH, but with a ringing endorsement from you I'm unlikely to lookat it any further.
What was supposed to be a 45 day min review is streching out. This suggests a lot of comments from the entrenched interests. I think GHDX can expect alot of the same attempts to block and/or delay billing code approval . Interesting to note MYGN and GHDX are both experiencing significant share price erosion. While I stand by the comments that 2015 will be a positive transition year. I do not think the next few months will be easy. Hedge funds with investments in robotic surgery or proton beam radiation companies could jerk a low float stock like GHDX around.
Yes it is. GHDX is no different identifying a host of potential threats ranging from competition to earthquakes. The short position is not oversized and may reflect somewhat of a sector bet, or a macro economic bet by a hedge fund etc. In this case the short position may not fluctuate appreciably with positive news. As I have mentioned before, I think it is worth giving GHDX 2 to 3 quarters to see if the 20% + sales GROWTH they project materializes. The medicare reimbursement codes and approval of a reimbursement amount requested would go a long ways to establishing this path forward.
I did not look for comparibles based on similar future potential. Rather just chose them based on similar genomic testing business models.
FMI and EXAS had major run ups after specific news. That type of situation draws shorts that are betting on retracement on overvaluation. Looks like 1 - 15%0% short position is a baseline with no specific expectations. I think it would erode further as tangible evidence of the company's ability to executing on the growth expectations becomes apparent, Right now there is a healthy degree of skeptisism since the company has several more milestones to deliver on before the growth occurs.
Guess I don't read as much into the short position as you do. I think you are right that it might be hard to cover if a few more pieces come together for the company. But that is not yet an immediate concern.
I've noticed that for quite a while that GHDX press releases are met with a shrug. I can't think of too many that have had a lasting effect on the share price. The problem is a little bit like the Amazon effect. GHDX contends that they are hiring marketing staff and training them to build a platform to address a critical need/large market opportunity. The Street is saying we've seen the PR now show us that GHDX will actually be profitable. I think it will take a couple good profitable quarters to prove that the corner has been turned. The street might fear that larger investments will be steered to new projects (liquid biopsy, bladder cancer etc.) that will delay the return on investment.
The short position (approx 12.5%) is not especially large as a % of the float. For comparison purposes BIOC is 10.5%, FMI is 21.7%, EXAS is 37.5% and MYGN is 40%. I think the short position represents skeptics that are saying prove GHDX can be profitable. Most the numbers you mention predate the Palmetto anouncement. The path to profitability on the back of prostate test billing code approval (at least for medicare) is becoming increasingly defined. You would think that would prompt some to cover. Perhaps they beleive that the test will be reimbursed at a far lower rate. However, this is risky since the EXAS colon cancer test reimbursement was much higher than many thought (pretty much what the company had requested). The Onco DX prostate cancer test has similar potentialto surprise on the upside as far as the reimbursement rate. More likely, the shorts maybe anticipating negative public comments will be launched by entrenched interest parties that benefit from overtreatment of prostate cancer. I think the approval process will see through this type of an attack, if it is not based on strong science.
The high MYGN short position may actially reflect a weakening position. They had touted prostate as a pillar of their future growth. The Prolaris approval did not come in as anticipated early this year and now it appears that they will face stiffer competition from GHDX.
I will be surprised if the GHDX short position does not decrease by the beginning of August when the public comment period is over and the reimbursement rate is established. Private insurers will be likely to follow suit once the Medicare coding is in place.
Guess I would not read too much into the short position since it is not oversized. The short positions will drop once a clear pathway to profitability is demonstrated.
Looks like GHDX is cranking up the PR going ionto ASCO. Why not. Most investors are trained on Pharma and biopharma products that may extend survival for a few more months. What is truely lacking are tools that help provide actionable data to determine which treatment option is best for a given subpopulation. This is especially true for prostate cancer. I don't think most investors truely appreciate the need for actionable treatment data such as provided by OncoDX.
The inflection point I have mentioned is on target for the 3rd Qtr with 4th quartter profitability, finally! Volume uptic is often a precurssor to share price gains. My biggest concern is the overall market and external events. As I mentioned before, wringing cost savings out of the health care system will be the theme of the next couple decades. Retirement of the baby boom generation leaves no choice but to issue smart cost controls. GHDX is positioning to be a major provider in this area. The market cap is miniscule compared to the opportunity and the float can shrivle up if a few big players decide they want in. That said, I would not be surprised if another downdraft or two occur as minipulators try to trigger stop loss selling.
Anybody have access to this technical Journal.
Studies see value of Prolaris cancer diagnostic test, but will CMS pay for it? Am J Manag Care. 2014;20(SP11):(SP323-SP327).
Obviously a rainy Memorial Day
But the draft coverage determination is far from a slam dunk for Myriad. Next up is a public comment period, which will run from Nov. 10 through Dec. 25. A Myriad spokesman said during the comment period, the company will provide information it believes will support coverage of the Prolaris test for all patients, not just those at the lowest risk.
If the CMS approves national coverage for Prolaris, it wouldn't go into effect until next year at the earliest. Myriad's spokesman said the company will detail potential financial ramifications during its first-quarter call with investors in a few weeks.
This is interesting since Myriad expected approval in February but still does not have it at the end of May. Increased competition now looms with Onco DX out for public comment, I'm concerned that Onco Dx might run into a similar delay, As I have mentioned before, there are alot of entrenched interests tat benefit from the overtreatment of prostate cancer (robotic surgery, proton beam radiation manufactuers, etc.) You can bet there are some public comments that are self serving.
Medicare considers national coverage for new prostate cancer test
By Bob Herman | October 18, 2014
Medicare will begin initial coverage for a genetic prostate cancer test and will consider national coverage. A Medicare administrative contractor, Palmetto GBA, said it will pay for a diagnostic test that evaluates prostate cancer risk in men, and the nation's largest payer will reach out to healthcare stakeholders to see if the test should be covered nationwide.
Prostate cancer is the second-most common cancer in American men. Approximately 28,000 men died from prostate cancer in 2011, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Several stipulations apply to covering Prolaris, a genetic prostate cancer test developed by publicly traded biotechnology company Myriad Genetics. According to a local coverage determination proposed by the CMS, Medicare will only cover Prolaris for prostate cancer patients who are considered low risk or very low risk. Patients also must have a life expectancy of at least 10 years, and the test must be ordered by a certified physician within Myriad's database.
Prolaris is different from standard early-stage prostate cancer screenings. The common test measures the blood level of a protein called prostate-specific antigen (PSA), to determine the severity of a potential tumor. Prolaris, which was launched in 2010 and costs $3,400, examines prostate tumor risks by analyzing 46 genes in a man's DNA.
PSA tests have been widely criticized by physician groups and the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force because they can lead to false positives, which can result in unnecessary treatment and consequent health complications. Genetic tests, on the other hand, have been viewed favorably by some industry observers.
Salt Lake City-based Myriad, a big player in the field, also produces a popular genetic test for breast cancer.
Looks like the buyers are being carefull not to spike the price. With so little float it will be hard to accumulate significant positions without moving the share price.
That is good news. Looks like the comment period runs thru 7/24. Just having it up for public comment onCMS should help the GHDX staff with negotiating payment for tests already sold.
Thanks for the explanation. Beleive I may have seen some discussion of this reservoir interconnection project on the website. The interconnection is critical since it is apparent that the Cantareira reservoir does not recover at the same rate as some of the other reservoirs.
Bit of a share price down draft the last couple days but the support just above 6 held. Going into the dry season it would be irresponsible to relax the draught incentives just because the reservoir is more than twice as full as last year. Long story short, we are probably looking at another depressed revenue year since SBS will probably continue to encourage reduced use.
The market does not appear to be receiving the latest PR all that well. My problem with the PR statements is that they focus on the shift in decision making as the most important factor, rather than what is the false negative rate (ie. agressive cancer cases missed by the test). This is probably a function of the fact that this can play out over several years or a decade. Such data should become available in the next few years. Unfortuantely until such quantifyable data is available, some physicians will take a pass. The billing code approval will be a huge help but I think definative false negative rate data at 5yr, 10yr etc. will probably mark an even larger threshold. It will probably need to be judged as GPS score vs the time without metastases to bone or other organs.