the analyst est for HZNP keep going up, so the price keeps going up. But, it is selling for close to 20x next yrs EPS already, and we are only in May.
Momo is defined, to me, as any price that is out of line with the next 2-3 yrs earnings that are being projected.
The key top any biotech/drug company that is getting rich (and REGN was rich about 50 bucks ago) is their ability to keep delivering on the potential.
The further a stock gets away from the "fair value", the more it will drop with any correction or misstep.
I am fully committed to my core HZNP position, my cost on those shrs is under $12/sh. The rest I will trade. But it's not time to trade out until the biotech ETFs get overbought. Which is still a while away.
Based on my charts, and making some rash assumptions (basically, BBH et al will follow the path that they have followed for 3-4 yrs, ie, soon the 21 da sma will cross back over the 50 da, and then, at some point BBH will be 8 or 10 bucks above the 50 da), I can see that this run could got for another 3-4 months, HZNP getting to 38 or 40.
If my assumptions above are true, get some hi quality plays that will have a good Q2 (not specs), and wait for a convergence of higher biotech pricing with a good ER, and then be ready to sell in Jul/Aug.
Just a guess, hope I am right, I loaded up for this circumstance all this past week.
the 20 is a 52 week low, it was a 2014 IPO, we all shd have bot and held.
Plus, there was never a 20 buck price, I don't think, that was the IPO price, and it never traded that low...
This has been a controversy stock, it's been up and down. But I think the down days are gone, for 2 reasons.
The first is that their main comp for their main product has left the mkt.
The second is that the main upcoming comp, a new product from JAZZ, was discontinued (ie, the development of it) by JAZZ just recently.
That leaves them as a sole source, and with that, higher margins.
Plus, there are a number of big upsides to it. They present at the Jeffries biotech confab on June 1, just after the mkt closes. I expect a small rise to that point, and bcse there are no negatives out there right now, just poorly communicated positives, I think it could be 20 pkus in 2 weeks. 18 now.
But, while 10% may not sound like too much, I also think 30 is in the cards for this yr.
I was just looking over some of my good and bad trades this yr.
AMAG is way up there in the god column. I first bot it at 41 back in early Feb, it's 66 now.
The best part of the story is that AMAG will go to 100+ this yr.
While HZNP has had a better first 5 months of the yr, I think AMAG will have a better last 7 months.
My mistake is that, once again, I have too little of it...
IPO 2 days ago at 5, 34 now? For SW that lets you run 2 O/S simultaneously?
Short this now, that has been tried before, it doesn't work bcse the hardware doesn't have the resources (CPU/ memory) to support 2 O/S and the apps...
just amazing! Glad i added after I sold...but I didn't add as many as I sold, so in effect, I hurt myself.
But, whenever I trade out of a lot of shrs (in this case, 1100 shrs), I never buy as many back. It's a rule I use to limit downside.
If you knew the whole SRPT story, it would make you laff or cry. It's another version of the corrupt BO regime, a woman at the FDA has held up their approvals, and been a obstacle for years, and lo and behold, her husband is employed at a company that would be negatively affected by SRPT's success.
Or something along that line, it was a real issue, with threatened lawsuits, etc, about a year or 2 ago.
No news, and it's up 3.5%. I sold at 133 or so, bot some back at 118 and 124, and it's back to 130.
If I ever thot it would recover this fast, I would have bot a lot more!!
No news, but JnJ had an investor day today, and their drug is the highest revenue produced in the prostrate mkt. MDVN has been eating them up, maybe it's getting even better!
I lost about 8/sh on SWKS, it dropped like a rock and I exited, too soon. I don't usually have that problem with biotechs, I am more sure of the value.
I sold some CAVM a month or so ago at 70+. and it is still below that, and was way below that.
It's just that I am more comfortable with the biotech volatility than the semiconductor volatility. To each his own!
AKRX was crushed on a minor accounting issue, they will need to delay Q1 repts while they get last yr fixed. It sold off from 57 to under 40.
I bot a load at 44, and suffered. Today it's up nearly 2 to 44.41, and I am back in the green on those new shrs.
ANIP got crushed on a bad Q1, but there is no change to their LT outlook, up a buck+ today to 54, my 12 mo target for ANIP is 90.
I only track biotechs closely. There are so many, it consumes me.
The biotechs have their own cycles, and that is clear to anyone who takes the time to chart out the ETFs, BBH, IBB, and FBT.
Today was a VG biotech day.
Amongst my lower price fast trades, ARIA and CORT had good days (CORT closed 20 cents off it's hi for the day). IDRA is a 10 buck stock at some point, was up 12% today.
I don't own any EDAP, but it's a 4 buck stock with the coming news re US FDA approval, and if approved, a 6 buck stock. 3 now.
Largely, I don't even look at the lower price plays unless they have a nice rev stream. CORT and ARIA are bulletproof in their rev, it's just a valuation issue.
I look at a few low vol higher price bios, like EGRX, which I have made a fortune off by trading like a madman. But, the crazy thing is that EGRX, at 60/sh, has a much lower mkt cap that ARIA, at 9. Thus the volatility.