ed, I have not looked at SCMP, but another of my small biotech investing rules is to NOT buy when they might do a SO, and I will buy after a SO that could be the last one for a long while. ie, they have enough money to get to revenue and profits.
If a biotech keeps needing money, just the spectre of additional SOs keeps any real money flow into it from happening.
Again, I did not look at SCMP, I will, but that's a rule I try to live by, I have held stuff before thru 2 SOs, and not made any real money!
Thot I would share this, bcse I said I was light, but added yesterday and today. Listed in order of how much $ I have of each. Dev means no product rev now, or this yr:
AMPE- shd have been approved already, had a load, sold a lot, bot some back.
KYTH- posted this yesterday
OPHT- vision drugs
NLNK- immunotherapy for liver cancer
CLDN- heart drugs
IDRA- one I have traded a couple time, way under water this time, but it has always come back, last sale by me was at close to 5, bot back at 4, now 3.39. Rats, but a small position, and I will wait it out.
I just listened to the KYTH update. They have 1 drug coming up for FDA approval, the date for that is May 13. The FDA can, on occasion, respond early, but rarely do they miss a date.
If KYTH does not get approval, things go downhill fast. They are already gearing up for production and sales. They are assuming they have done all the right things for approval.
At it's peak, their drug (for some skin ailment) could have sales of $500M, that # from the CFO today. As a single drug company, the take out value is based on a multiple of peak sales, usually 7-10x.
So if they get the approval, the company becomes worth 3.5B to 5B in 2-3 yrs. Currently, it's mkt cap is 1B.
The real investment thesis is that the biotechs are sold off, and KYTH should gain ground thru April as they approach the FDA date (called PFUDA date).
I have some, if it runs into the approval, I'll sell some, or all. I bot this knowing about the approval date. That's all I want, 55-59/sh by Apr 30, 48 now.
Anyone know anything about this one? Internet banking, started the yr at 77, hit 96 last week, 91 now.
VG numbers, 1.4B mkt cap...I just have been watching it, and not buying it. Maybe now??
I sold a lot of my LCI yesterday, and bot 1/2 of it back this AM at 63...so far, the only buy of mine that is doing OK.
Bot that TSEM, shd have bot QRVO.
PCRX had some good news, bot another 100, down a buck on that.
Sold all my AMAG yesterday, bot a little back this AM, up a buck on that.
bot 1/2 my TSEM back, but that is about under 10% of the $ I sold, not sure semis are ready to rally yet.
But the Dow is fast trying to get to the flat line, I bet it ends the day in the green!!
KITE from 89 to 59
AGIO from 138 to 88
TTPH from 45 to 33
any many more off 30%+
Energy has, and is, moving up. As best as I can tell, after that sector, you need to pick carefully.
As to biotechs, BBH will touch close to the 50 da SMA today, at the worst, it will drop just a little more than that (ie, 3-5% below yesterday's close), and then begin a recovery.
If history repeats itself, that is the key...
another small point, in times like now, when profits can get hurt, the drug companies are much less affected, esp the hi end plays that do most their sales in this country, so no price pressure, and little effect from the strong $.
I sold 90% of my dev biotech, but have held onto the others...