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Lindsay Corporation Message Board

flfedwatcher 599 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Oct 3, 2007
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  • Reply to

    NXPI

    by flfedwatcher 23 hours ago
    flfedwatcher flfedwatcher 23 hours ago Flag

    make that a 3 buck move in 10 min, just looked at a chart...

  • flfedwatcher by flfedwatcher 23 hours ago Flag

    got back in this AM, and it just popped a fast buck, in about 20 min...

  • Reply to

    SCMP

    by nncy_drk Mar 27, 2015 10:41 AM
    flfedwatcher flfedwatcher Mar 27, 2015 11:36 AM Flag

    ed, I have not looked at SCMP, but another of my small biotech investing rules is to NOT buy when they might do a SO, and I will buy after a SO that could be the last one for a long while. ie, they have enough money to get to revenue and profits.

    If a biotech keeps needing money, just the spectre of additional SOs keeps any real money flow into it from happening.

    Again, I did not look at SCMP, I will, but that's a rule I try to live by, I have held stuff before thru 2 SOs, and not made any real money!

  • Reply to

    My spec biotechs:

    by flfedwatcher Mar 27, 2015 10:35 AM
    flfedwatcher flfedwatcher Mar 27, 2015 10:46 AM Flag

    NLNK up 7% today...

  • Reply to

    My spec biotechs:

    by flfedwatcher Mar 27, 2015 10:35 AM
    flfedwatcher flfedwatcher Mar 27, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    oops, missed OPK...

  • flfedwatcher by flfedwatcher Mar 27, 2015 10:35 AM Flag

    Thot I would share this, bcse I said I was light, but added yesterday and today. Listed in order of how much $ I have of each. Dev means no product rev now, or this yr:

    AMPE- shd have been approved already, had a load, sold a lot, bot some back.
    KYTH- posted this yesterday
    ZIOP
    OPHT- vision drugs
    NLNK- immunotherapy for liver cancer
    CLDN- heart drugs
    IDRA- one I have traded a couple time, way under water this time, but it has always come back, last sale by me was at close to 5, bot back at 4, now 3.39. Rats, but a small position, and I will wait it out.

  • flfedwatcher by flfedwatcher Mar 27, 2015 10:18 AM Flag

    while it lasted!!!

    Sold a lot of small stuff I bot yesterday, AMAG, RAD, TSEM.

  • flfedwatcher by flfedwatcher Mar 27, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    sold out when it went under 12, bot back yesterday and today, ave cost 11.35. Still wary about dev biotechs, have just a couple.

  • flfedwatcher by flfedwatcher Mar 26, 2015 6:37 PM Flag

    I just listened to the KYTH update. They have 1 drug coming up for FDA approval, the date for that is May 13. The FDA can, on occasion, respond early, but rarely do they miss a date.

    If KYTH does not get approval, things go downhill fast. They are already gearing up for production and sales. They are assuming they have done all the right things for approval.

    At it's peak, their drug (for some skin ailment) could have sales of $500M, that # from the CFO today. As a single drug company, the take out value is based on a multiple of peak sales, usually 7-10x.

    So if they get the approval, the company becomes worth 3.5B to 5B in 2-3 yrs. Currently, it's mkt cap is 1B.

    The real investment thesis is that the biotechs are sold off, and KYTH should gain ground thru April as they approach the FDA date (called PFUDA date).

    I have some, if it runs into the approval, I'll sell some, or all. I bot this knowing about the approval date. That's all I want, 55-59/sh by Apr 30, 48 now.

  • flfedwatcher by flfedwatcher Mar 26, 2015 4:58 PM Flag

    Anyone know anything about this one? Internet banking, started the yr at 77, hit 96 last week, 91 now.

    VG numbers, 1.4B mkt cap...I just have been watching it, and not buying it. Maybe now??

  • flfedwatcher by flfedwatcher Mar 26, 2015 1:34 PM Flag

    just FYI. It was 54 when all the selling started, 52.34 now. Better than most! (of mine, that is...)

  • flfedwatcher flfedwatcher Mar 26, 2015 12:28 PM Flag

    I sold a lot of my LCI yesterday, and bot 1/2 of it back this AM at 63...so far, the only buy of mine that is doing OK.

    Bot that TSEM, shd have bot QRVO.

    PCRX had some good news, bot another 100, down a buck on that.

    Sold all my AMAG yesterday, bot a little back this AM, up a buck on that.

  • Reply to

    green bios

    by flfedwatcher Mar 26, 2015 9:40 AM
    flfedwatcher flfedwatcher Mar 26, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    bot 1/2 my TSEM back, but that is about under 10% of the $ I sold, not sure semis are ready to rally yet.

    But the Dow is fast trying to get to the flat line, I bet it ends the day in the green!!

  • KITE from 89 to 59
    AGIO from 138 to 88
    TTPH from 45 to 33

    any many more off 30%+

  • Reply to

    green bios

    by flfedwatcher Mar 26, 2015 9:40 AM
    flfedwatcher flfedwatcher Mar 26, 2015 9:42 AM Flag

    alxn, celg, vrx too

  • flfedwatcher by flfedwatcher Mar 26, 2015 9:40 AM Flag

    AKRX, PCRX, OPK, INSY

  • Reply to

    semis

    by nncy_drk Mar 26, 2015 7:42 AM
    flfedwatcher flfedwatcher Mar 26, 2015 9:31 AM Flag

    Energy has, and is, moving up. As best as I can tell, after that sector, you need to pick carefully.

    As to biotechs, BBH will touch close to the 50 da SMA today, at the worst, it will drop just a little more than that (ie, 3-5% below yesterday's close), and then begin a recovery.

    If history repeats itself, that is the key...

  • Reply to

    semis

    by nncy_drk Mar 26, 2015 7:42 AM
    flfedwatcher flfedwatcher Mar 26, 2015 8:56 AM Flag

    another small point, in times like now, when profits can get hurt, the drug companies are much less affected, esp the hi end plays that do most their sales in this country, so no price pressure, and little effect from the strong $.

    I sold 90% of my dev biotech, but have held onto the others...

  • Reply to

    semis

    by nncy_drk Mar 26, 2015 7:42 AM
    flfedwatcher flfedwatcher Mar 26, 2015 8:53 AM Flag

    I am out of semis entirely.

    I was mad at myself for selling the QRVO at 77, when it then went to 84. It was 77 yesterday, looks to open under 74.

    It's amazing to me that the main issue seems to be weakening earnings due to the strong dollar. Where's the surprise there?

    Plus, the Fed talk about raising rates has caused a lot of the disruptions.

    Last, between the stronger dollar causing soft sales in the multi nationals, and layoffs, and the weak oil prices causing layoffs in the oil patch, with low interest rates encouraging layoffs after acquisitions, and with financial regs causing layoffs in the fin svcs industry, I worry that we are getting on the edge of another recession...not there yet, but the Fed needs to walk back any talk about raising rates, they need to let the $ rest.

  • flfedwatcher by flfedwatcher Mar 25, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    Down, in % terms, less than the Nasdaq, and much less than the biotechs overall.

    The analyst rev expectations for Q1 are very low. I expect an enormous beat when MDVN reports. Just a note on that, the price of the stock is closer to what the rev shd be, if MDVN reported just 10% more than the analyst number, MDVN stock would crash.

    Q1 rev expected is 149M, look for 275-300M. Still, MDVN's mkt cap is 10B, so that assumes $1B in rev this yr. 275M is just a first step to that $1B (I expect closer to 1.3B, just looking at the ramp of perscriptions that have been written).

    MDVN is as large as any individual stock position that I have.

LNN
76.55+1.85(+2.48%)Mar 27 4:02 PMEDT