so then a logical person would take the total of the last quarter and projections for the current quarter and compare to estimates. and the total of the two was a beat. that's why the stock jumped. and mgmt typically likes to underpromise and overdeliver so i expect them to beat the current 2q estimates.
hang in there. the facts here are strong. they had 23% adjusted net profit growth SEQUENTIALLY!!! and they are projecting significant revenue growth for the 2nd quarter, which should lead to even stronger sequential growth in EPS. they are now GAAP profitable for TTM and show a GAAP p/e of 8. all signs are pointing up, except the technicals. have faith the fundies will eventually win out. we could really use some institutional interest.
one thing i've learned about housing stocks is that they can act irrationally, on average, longer than other sectors. this thing will probably freefall to about $20, which makes no sense.
this drop in share price has caused me to go digging. so far nothing warrants it. here is an excerpt from the cc:
In summary, we presented a record shareholders' equity, a record cash balance, record revenue and EBITDA level, a record $77 million positive cash from operations and $20 million net free cash flow, all while maintaining and growing our net profit.
the reason for the lower non-GAAP earnings this quarter is that they listened to the public and are now including depreciation in the non-GAAP earnings. the analyst who dropped their earnings estimates undoubtedly took this into account. there is a bit of panic going on in the stock price and it is certainly much to do about nothing. yes, its true that $3.90 non-GAAP earnings next year will not be the number, but only due to a change in accounting methodology. the business is still VERY STRONG and GROWING!! and when they refinance their remaining debt, they have something additional up their sleeve to increase shareholder value.
there are a whopping 2 revenue estimates and they missed the average of the TWO estimates by 3% and the stock drops 7%??? even though they beat EPS estimates by 9%? they beat one of the two revenue estimates, which is about what one should expect. additionally, the revenue estimate they missed was EXTREMELY aggressive, projecting about 45% growth over last year. there was nothing in any of their pre-released numbers (e.g., monthly closings) that indicated that large of an increase. not only that, but they announced april closings up over 27% from last year, which is VERY strong, especially given the average selling price is rising YOY. that plus the 25% growth in Q1 closings tells me Q2 is on pace to beat estimates so far.
i saw the "miss" right away yesterday. i don't know for sure what's what, but even if you are right that they may "barely" make $2/share this year, its still outrageously undervalued. i'm not going to analyze the numbers, but maybe they are giving more conservative numbers now. regardless, most of the companies i see that appear to be as undervalued as TSEM appears to be have horrible, scary balance sheets. not the case here. its getting healthier by the quarter.
ORBK keeps producing great earnings growth and the stock price is healthy. TSEM does the same and the stock price is on its death bed. what will it take here?
yeah one of their stats says p/b is over 3 compared to peers who are in the 2's. well, reality is their p/b is 2.49. i don't even open these propoganda items. only did because of the post i'm replying to.
yeah, but how much will the guidance hurt? the combined sales of this q and next q estimate are above estimates, so that SHOULD be good for the stock.
when prospects LOOK good, the stock falls. after retailers get the bad news and apparently bad outlook and all hope seems lost, the stock rises. looks like we are at the early stages of a recovery to double digits at the least. i believe QS&L will be huge, but it won't be over night.
he was right that something is definitely wrong here and he was right to exit stage left. no buying interest whatsoever, so those who have an interest in taking this lower can have their way.
trump and hillary are bad for drug/bio stocks. by default, cruz is then good. after this weekend its starting to look like trump will be ousted as the gop nominee.
regardless of what you see posted on this board, those restaurants WILL succeed wildly if managed right. If there are unprofitable stores, get rid of them, but there is opportunity everywhere by opening new ones and the food is EXCELLENT - better that B-Dubs in many opinions of those who've tried it.