I am long but the link is really funny. It was to an story about the regulatory issue in Taiwan, not China. The officer cited there works in Taiwan, not China.
I guess that people says "lost in translation".
Coach's business is about three time larger than Kors. Coach's same-store sales lost 6.8% than last year. If you time it by three, that's about exactly what KORS gained in same-store sales (21%).
Funny! As I review my post three months ago, at that time KORS posted Q2 earning with the remark that Europe is expected to grow to $500 millions. I commented that Europe is at least a $1 billion market for KORS to match the growth experience of Guess? Now today in CC, Idol revised his Europe's expectation to $1 billion.
Gee! I couldn't not admire myself.
Well, the stock did dip to unthinkable $16 and changes. But today it rally to near all time high while many retailers do not participate this rally. That tells you something.
P.S. I was in Asia for a while. That's only reason not posting.
2) Store expansion: KORS has 249/30/49/77/32 stores currently in N. America/Japan/Europe/Far East/Airports regions and is targeted to expand to 400/100/200/200/50 stores in respective regions. That is to expand the current 328 owned stores (or 442 stores including licensed) to 950 stores eventually. Although some cannibalization may occur along the way of expansion. That could be offset by company's action to buy back the licensed stores (26% of total stores). The total target stores (950) is more than doubled than the current existing stores.
3) Shop-in-Shop in department stores: I believe it still at 500 stores now. It is being forecasted to grow to 1150.
4) Jewlery shop-in-shop: Currently 60 and targeted to grow to 500.
5) Men's business: Currently, KORS sold 90% of watches to women. In CC, the management mentioned three potential market 1. men's sportswear 2. men's leather goods 3. men's watches. All three together could potentially bring in $1 billions business to KORS.
6) Far East: Currently this region is still at infant stage and its license is owned by insider - sportswear holding inc. I guess that previous secondary issues sales for the partial reasons to obtain the capital needing to expand in this region. And eventually the company may buy back the license in this region and hence, grow the topline sales in this region.
Adding up all of above, the story from KORS is far to cease.
The analyst community had been treating KORS and UA quite biasedly. KORS, although consistently grew the business nearly at 50% AGR, was frequently ambushed by market rumor of growth slowdown. KORS, again and again proved its wolf-coming-once-more by presenting fabulous ER quarter over quarter. Vs. KORS's 50% AGR in 2013, UA merely grew 20+%. KORS is selling at forward PE of 22 while UA is selling near at 40. Funny how frequent I heard over CNBC "Yeah! Kors is a fine company but expensive". Yet they claim that UA is a unique growth story. True! UA still has a large white space for expansion - Europe. But let us review how big the white space KORS has.
1) Europe: KORS has 49 stores in Europe now, targets to expand to 200 stores and $500 millions sales. In most recent quarter, Europe contributed 12.7% while FOSL contributed 24.2% (or $170 millions) and GES in 2012 obtained 35.3% from Europe or $939 millions. The respective total sales in 2014 are projected as $3.68 billions from KORS vs. $3.52 billions from FOSL vs. $2.69 billions from Guess?. While Europe sales are matured business for FOSL/GES, one could imagine that KORS's Europe estimate is way too conservative. It needs to at least double to $1 billions sales to match the growing pattern of Guess's. In CC, KORS mentioned that in several regions of Europe, KORS is either the most demanded brand or #2. So, the vision to become a more popular brand than Guess? isn't too optimistic. It is also noted that Guess? in Europe has a higher margin than all other regions (OPI 37.9% from Europe).
Just FYI, RL had been posting no growth or lack-luster growth for least 5 quarters. RL might be the love of baby-boomer but certainly not the move of generation X. The new generation (who wants to buy the same brand as my father/grandfather did?) loves Michael Kors, Kate Spade. We, baby boomer, might be a lot more influential than generation X in terms of buying power. But the cruel fact is that WE ARE DYING, we are losing the grip.
Obviously you are investing on impression, not on DD.
This is happening on top of a terrible day for retail stocks (and yesterday too). You can hardly find a green there and this green is a huge green.
Despite my warm calls again and again, Wetnash simply didn't answer at all. He probably sold $16-17 and rotate into the safe heaven - Ralph Lauren. Oooooops! RL down $10.
Two possible reasons:
1) He sold out and left no reason to continue whining on.
2) He finally finds himself in accord with us and can't find a major reason to continue criticizing.
If the first reason prevails, he could be deadly wrong since I scratched my head over weekend trying to find the next gem, I couldn't. hell! This loft expensive market. Sooner or later, the value of this stock claims itself out simply on comparison.
the most you can criticize about smartphone is its size, hard to carry. When I-watch carries partial smartphone function, I think it does have its appeal.
A fewer concerns:
1) Fossil is selling watches in $200-300 range. Punch in "I-watch" in goggle search and find out latest speculation on I-watch. Apple is filing brandname petition in every countries for I-watch. Would it concern you if I-watch only sells $500 range not significantly higher than the price range Fossil is selling? Some might argue that I-watch rumor had been going up for a while, it is not coming out. It might not be rolling out forever. Well, if I am Apple's CEO, I wouldn't give you any hint. Rumor also has Samsung might have something rolling out. Although a small I-watch can hardly contain all smartphone's function in one, it should be able to add messaging, calendaring function to encroach into traditional watch market.
2) What's the percentage Kor's watches contributing to Fossil's sales? 20%? Asia is the white space for both companies. But Kor's does not only rely on Asia for further growth, Fossil is. How you imagine that both companies will grow without any calibration in between?
I thought many comparing DTLK to NTGR to result a low-PE worth. But I argue that DTLK is moving toward cloud service network and has a steady growing stream for the foreseeable future. It should deserve higher PE.
The key of this CC comes from two parts:
1) Revenue comes out a bit short this quarter but next quarter guidance is fine. Significant growth on deferred revenue from Q1's $65.5 millions to $71.1 now vs. $39.5 millions prior year should appease any concern of this quarter's little revenue shortfall.
2) Gross margin comes out 47.6%, significantly ahead consensus of 45-46%. And the management strongly suggests this margin sustainable and has a long-term target of 50%.
I notice that the street is quietly bumping up EPS estimate. I don't have the consensus before ER. But I do think 3c per quarter bump reasonable given strong margin. At least two analysts bumps up target price significantly up to $15.
CALX and ADTN has a strange relationship. While ADTN had 47% gross margin in most recent quarter, a bit lower than CALX's, ADTN is selling at EV/sales of 2.1 while CALX only sells at 1.3. CALX carries a target price of $14.5, 17% higher than current price. ADTN has a target price of $22, 17% below the current price. CALX is selling at 16.4 times 2014 PE while ADTN is selling at 27.4 (both companies have significant cash). If I am not mistaken, CALX is taking some customers away from ADTN such as Quest.
BTW, this market starts to find all sort of reasons to move the stock up especially via multiple expansion. Two of my low-PE stocks, IGTE and PRFT all have improvement but not proportional to the percentage of the stock movement. Investors magnified the improvement and reward with multiple expansion. The perception changes from a valued stock to a growth stock. Then bingo. Rocky will have over 15% revenue growth this year - I don't even think Ralph Lauren can claim that.
Three reasons for RCKY going higher.
1) EPS: My estimate is $1.62. I didn't go forensic simply took from the CC and made quick math (without considering opex leverage). There was $8 millions revenue shown on last year's Q3 not going to repeat this year. Thomson has a undisclosed contributor (suppose to be the usual analyst) estimating only $1.42 bumping up 2c. I think anyone with a math can figure out way higher than that number.
2) PE multiple expansion: The key is to sell more fashionable boots. Durango sold $25 millions last year. Look like they could expand 40% this year. So we could expect fashion boot going up to 15% of total sales.
3) Recognition of tangible book value. Similar to RCKY, SCVL and COLM also has strong tangible book value. In last 6 months, they moved up stronger than the peers despite lack-luster earnings.
After you add these three factors up, $25-30 is really the fair value for the stock.