Long, why do you place our debt burden only on Pres. Obama. It's true that the administration has led a Keynesian response to our recession, but the recent addition of trillions to our national debt can be attributed to the supply-side economics and warmongering of the past administration. (Of course, we had a big debt load before Bush.)
But under Bush: $1.5 Trillion for his tax cuts, which fueled the recent bubble; $450 Billion for Medicare Part D, which allowed Big Pharma to get its asking price for new drugs; and then the Iraq War, which has already cost over $1 Trillion and some say will end up costing over $2T by the time we finish paying for clean-up and veterans' medical costs.
So, when the markets fell and the credit crisis ensued, Bush admin bailed out the financial institutions to the tune of $780 Billion, which was necessary in my opinion, but kicked the can down the road when it came time to enact real policies. Obama has put about $1.5 Trillion into stimulus efforts and would like another $500 Billion. This is Keynesian, meaning that the government is trying to create demand in the economy to stimulate it. Did it work? Well, Obama would say that it did because it could have been much worse. But it's hard to prove a negative.
But we can't let ourselves believe that our current debt load is a product of Obama policies. His admin took over in crisis and reacted with a philosophy they believe in. The Bush admin believed in its supply-side policies too, but they just can't believe that the recession is a product of that failed economic theory.
Trivia: Did you know that the national debt tripled under Ronald Reagan's presidency?
If a budget deal is reached today before close, how do you think the markets will react?
I think we'll see a +10-point move in the S&P the moment it's announced. Thoughts?
Just thought I'd pass this along if anyone was interested or had thoughts on this quicky play.
The weekly $28 puts are selling for 10 cents. They expire today. Might get a little gas out of them if it's determined that there will be no shutdown.
One day play. Thoughts?
Seems so to me too. S&P 1333 long tested. We may see the downward leg (down to second shoulder) of an inverse head and shoulders before bouncing back up.
If so, why?
I'm thinking of throwing a line in the water here. It seems the market has shrugged off the recent news just fine (devastating earthquake, nuclear meltdown, unrest in Mideast), but perhaps tomorrow is a 'sell the news' day after jobs report.
... of buyback and Wren retirement.
The $50MM buyback represented about 9% of the company yet we move downward.
Given that 89% of the company is institutionally owned, retail holders have little to do with the action we've seen.
Earnings report on Monday will be the determinant for the next quarter. It looks like they're set up to lay a big fat turd in the punchbowl. The PPS may get beat up if anything looks slightly sour. If the story is intact after earnings and the PPS takes a wild swing downward (a la last fall), it could be a good buying opportunity. Nothing says 'buy' now, especially with mgmt offering cockamamie explanations for the recent developments.
I'd love to see TNDM blow the doors off come Monday, but I see no sign of it coming. All roadsigns point downward. Thanks TNDM mgmt!!
Sorry, it didn't like the word 'pissed' as in I'm pissed off at TNDM mgmt.
Really sorry about the extraneous posts here.
I talked to someone in IR yesterday. She was very nice; not very informative. Here's what I 'learned':
On Wren/Evans swap: Evans is more of a data guy than Wren; Wren wanted to retire.
On Tinet earnings: Two million euro loss was due to transaction costs and was expected by TNDM mgmt.
On recent events (earnings pushed back, Tinet losses, Wren out, buyback announced): just how it worked out.
I was at the grocery when I got the call back (after three days and three messages) so I didn't have my notes, which might have helped me with more details. But, essentially, you don't learn much from IR that isn't already on the record.
So yes, I'm still guessing, and pi$$ed off about that. Already sold half my underlying position. Will likely sell rest before close today. Still have many call options along the curve that I'm already writing off as losses. TNDM mgmt has dropped the ball, it looks like to me. And their silence will confirm it for the market.
Actually, I got a call back from I.R. person yesterday. She was very nice, not very informative. Here's what I 'learned':
On the Wren/Evans switch: Evans has more data experience; Wren wanted to retire.
On the Tinet earnings: The two million euro loss was due to the transaction costs. Tinet's earnings were exactly in line with TNDM mgmt's expectations.
On the timeline of recent events (earnings pushed back, Tinet losses, Wren retires, buyback announed): That's just the way it worked out.
That's what I got from it. Unfortunately, I was at the grocery when I got the call back (which took three days and three messages), so I didn't have my notes with more detailed questions. It's pretty obvious when you talk to IR people that you're not going to learn much that isn't already on the record.
Yes, I'm still guessing, and a little pissed because of it. Trimmed half of my underlying stock, holding the rest for the moment plus many call options along the curve.
Call Investor Relations at Neutral Tandem and ask them if Ed could help with this problem, that is, if he's not busy out on his golf course:
Phone: (312) 380-4501, ask for Rian.
Maybe we only need a hobo to sit in for a few weeks before the private equity buyout. Maybe Wren was going to be sacked under new management and didn't like the deal (god knows his compensation has been more than satisfactory to him). Maybe the hobo won't even untie his knapsack.
Maybe I'm delusional, but I still think TNDM is an excellent buyout candidate.
... can't buy us any love.
I'm expecting a TNDM break-out after the pullback and the Wren news is explained and digested.
I wish these jerks at Investor Relations would call me back. Has anyone reached them?