I guess the best thing with this equity is to day-trade it... buy when it's down 6% and sell the next day when it's up 4%. It's like a clock. Daily high at 10.30 AM on up days. Incredible manipulation with computer precision.
Pull up the 10 year chart and you will where support and bottoms are...8.25$, 5.64$ etc....I am not seeing major support until 8.25$
Look at the prints, buyers stepped in the AM before numbers were announced. Dollar needs to calm down as well.
Maybe... I am in with 1000 at 11.55, but really think that I will be averaging down over the next few weeks. Hopefully I am wrong...
This should wipe out the short interest, Arabica will soon be trading cartel style like petrol.
Need to consider supply side as well.
Other points- UUP has a hard time moving up (even though perceived Egypt crisis) - means that OIL cannot go down much lower here. US$ not strengthening considerably.
TMV/TBT - yields are NOT going down, inflation is real and no flight to safety due to inflation fears.
My forecast, oil will move lower in the next few days as Egypt crisis calms down and then moves up from there in smaller increments.
US GVT does not want high crude prices, putting pressure on OPEC, but Ben is f-ed now...inflation is real
It's actually daytraders or momentum traders doing this. There is no institutional manipulation on this yet. Only after $5 and closer to December. Next 2 weeks should be interesting.
In the current volatile environment, it's too early to make any significant predictions this early. If we see another leg down, NRO could be at $2.80 or so, vice-versa, if we get a small rally under way, it could be at $3.80.
Not going to attempt to trade this tender, there is too much risk this early. Let's wait and see how June goes.
Prior research has documented anomalous profits as high as 9% from participating in stock repurchase tender offers. The trading strategy is to buy shares in the market just before offer expiration and tender; it involves a trading horizon of just a few days. The large profits given a short trading horizon are puzzling, and this evidence raises serious questions about market efficiency. A possible reason inhibiting arbitragers from eliminating these profits is risk exposure. We examine whether trading profits are available in tender offer repurchases conducted by closed-end funds. Risk exposure concerns should be minimized for these offers, since the underlying assets of closed-end funds constitute a well-diversified portfolio of securities. We find significant tendering profits even in this sample, although the magnitude is much smaller at around 1%.
Actually, this is working out better then I thought. I continue to purchase at these low levels and hope that fear continues to drive this down a few more days. There will be a violent reversal to the upside in the next couple of weeks (the dollar will cave in at some point). We had greed for months and months and now we will have fear for a few weeks. Nothing wrong with playing the contrarian sentiment. That's the only way to make money in this market- when the VIX is where it is and when everybody calls for an additional 20% correction. Learned this over the years.
I also like NHS, but too rich for my blood - it barely got corrected in this fiasco. Would love to load up at $10/share.
My Dec 31 $5 target still holds.
What other recommendations do you have to deal with the upcoming inflation in the next 2 years. How else can one speculate on the rising commodity prices?
Why would farmers produce more and charger lower fees in an inflationary period?
Seems to me (although imperfect) that DAG will react to this in the next 12 months.
Interesting comments, yes, nobody expects the 2005 euphoria to return anytime soon. $5 by year end does not seem unrealistic, unless the markets tank big again.
However, regardless of what we read today regarding the deflationary argument, a time will come when inflation will hit us BIG (2-3 years). This fund, along with other "tangible" asset funds will fly at that time and will outperform the rest of the markets. I am slowly adding to this position, Ag futures funds, etc. Better early then late...
My conclusion - this is probably as safe as one can be in this market, without sitting in cash on the sidelines.
Better be in early then too late...just my view. Does not really matter if you come in at 7.15 or 6.50, it's a log term speculation against inflation. This will not move significantly for 12 months until inflation starts kicking in, as a result of the Bernake printing machine....