bdi up another 102 friday - 248 points in 2 days, cape spot to 24,600 - wow - fast move. if there's another click up monday morning it might be quite the interesting trading day. ore chores responsible.
M/T "SHINYO NAVIGATOR" -LDT 42,448- 300,549 dwt, blt 1996 Hyundai/ S. Korea, LR, 15 tanks, B+W 7S80MC Demo to PAKISTAN for $441 per LDT
bot another few NM, sold Jan 2015 $10 covered calls against then, took back $1.20. Too scared to buy 'em naked. Net cost 6.60, assuming no change in PPS would earn 1.20 + .25 divi = 1.45 on 6.60 over 15 mos, with upside all the way to 10. Coming into this year we were at 3.37, now $10 calls pay $1.20. Trub as to your question, I'd expect to hold in shares and spinoff shares whatever the call holder had rights to, so could unwind painlessly. And if I thought NM sans NSALI or NSALI alone was mis-valued I'd have the option of another play. How would 'complicated' calls get me in trouble? I get it on treatment of special dividends. If NSALI gets put out as a special - well, don't throw me in that briar patch.
AF: HSH moves 'slowly', but some poss of further deal next year. re NSALI, grain conveyor work done, plan to add separate adjoining facility for ore for 6mt/yr with capacity (space) to expand to 10. explained that 35m annual ebitda was for minimum - seemed trying to imply that the larger volume would be probable if i heard correctly. also wrt IPO - implied would be patient and wait for VALE infrastructure to proceed - so true value apparent. my take was IPO could now be more than 12 mos out. VALE permitting ongoing now but 12-18 mos to construct.
meant 1 cent miss. lots of attention in presentation plus first minutes of call in NMs longer term performance and growth. seems trying to pull attention away from the quarterly details - so far.
TW now says "Navios VL torched
New York-listed Navios Acquisition looks to have picked up $18m from demo deal." dosn't say which one.
NSALI revs down over 12 mos, 1 cent loss buried on slide 22, Navios Asia fleet not to deliver till q1 2015. Newly listed recharters on owned bulk fleet are low - many under 10k/day - all market can support I suppose. NSALI barge convoy contracts a plus, both options to buy and 6 yr charter/contract. FWIW nav europe closing/closed 'november', and no mention of reported NNA $83m VL purchase. Sure there will be some discussion of the VALE contract but will that be enough to leave market upbeat? Maybe, but I'm not feeling it. Bulkers just still on the outs and that can't be hidden. What are we hoping to hear in the call?
it's listed in the S&P by tradewinds, but they've been known to jump the gun. saw it in tanother similar list a littel earlier, but nothing from NNA or AF - just a line in a table.
bought a few NM at 7.50 and sold some Jan 2015 $7.50 covered calls for $1.75 against them. Net cost 5.75, assume will be called at 7.50, also collect 4q divs for another 25¢ so pay out 5.75 recover 7.75 in 15 months. and as long as we're above 5.50 at that point I haven't lost any cash - maybe opportunity cost but I'm betting NM will have IPO'ed NSALI within 15 mos so good chance NM will have more days in the sun. Anyone else selling covered calls at this level? You could get better than 1.75 for the Jan 2015s this afternoon.
I come up with a NAV/shr of 3.67 for NNA. Basis Platou's October ship values & actual recent paid prices by NNA. 3 major components: owned vessels market value, above-market VLCC charters, and the remaining financials - net cash/debt. All at end Q3. All numbers in millions. For net cash/debt: debt -1101. other current liabilities -35, cash 108, current assets 14 deposits on vessels 84, total = -930. Now vessels. 34. 14 MR2s with 6 built 2013: 423m. 4 chems: 111m, 8 LR1s: 306m, 8 VLCC: 331m, total 1172m. So far net = 242m. Now the charters. For 6 VLCCs with avg 6 yr to go on charters, a 20,000 daily premium over current bid 3 yr TC rates, at 360 days/yr, is 259m, or avg 43.2m per vessel. 242 + 259 = 501, divide by 136.7m shares = 3.67. There is some additional value in the out years of the pair of VLCCs at 48k but I'm skipping that. Example of values I assigned - bougaineville 34.3, titan: 38, cosmos 22 (wag), atropos 42, cielo 32, splendor 20, kieran 70, celeste 35.4. nothing for intangibles. recently, recall, there was a 20% dilution at 3.85. I'm comfortable owning at 3.72 - today's close.
New vlcc has an MC-C engine, vs the MC listed for the less expensive VLs. So far only difference I see is that for the MC-C: "Fuel economy at part load is optimized by means of the Variable Injection Timing (VIT) incorporated in the fuel pumps (optional on certain MC-C engines)." So compared to our new 2011 at 57m this 2012 is 1 year younger, 7% larger, and may include a higher spec engine, but cost 26M more, and meanwhile the old 1996 is sold for 22M. This strike anyone else as nowhere near as interesting a deal as the first 3?
Ugh, just bought a 2011 for 57m, now spending 83 on a 2012? Big at 320,105 but pricey compared to the triple they just took - that seemed sweet, this one not so much. Charter attached maybe? Not surprised the NAVIGATOR is sold but thought they might get it out on another voyage: VLCCs right now in the right place (it's been 'repositioning' for some time) are earning $1M in 20 days. Send it out for a couple of months - scrap covers most the rest, and if rates were to persist it'd be a win. Anyway, happy to see AF do the JF move and get another VL out of the business. Hate the fact STNG ordered VL newbuilds today. FWIW benchmark TD3 hit WS 64 today, others rose too. Thanks for the news. Source?
I should check, but your numbers are usually accurate, so I'll just be glum - it's really really bad the ordering that's been going on. The yards are happy, China's happy (lower import cost), but current owners - not so much. A day after STNG ordered new capes, they're ordering new VLCCs, too - seems anything with a whiff of recovery is getting whacked longer term by the rush to buy new. Even the savvy buyer, well ahead of the curve, taking 2nd hand vessels, seems to have the recovery window threatened by newbuilds. tough business.
shipping rates have bottomed? The Q1 2014 FFA market says Capes will avg only 10,250 a day. No, today's rates will seem quite high in a few weeks.
compare to NM, which was under 6 for august and now is still near 8. credit AF for that, plus an investor base that isn't so loopy. crash of GNK & EGLE so easy to see coming, IMO. GL
and check out the price differential - NBs at 90M in maybe 2016 vs 3 3-year-olds in the water next quarter at 55M apiece. because she can.