My thesis is that with spot rates so severely depressed rigth now, panas at near $5kpd only and having been lower if you can believe it, and with so much of the core fleet on short term charters either very recently expired or expiring this summer, that the next earnings will be low and with not much good to report in terms of new charters. That'll be the cover/buy opportunity. Then comes the seasonal strength late in the year and a better 2015 shaping up (per FFAs and the MArsoft report that went public as part of the GNK BK proceedings) so better charters being inked by late 2014 and so, opportunities to sell into the strength. In the meantime keep an eye on the NSALI spinoff prospects, and potential ship buys: AF just raised another 115m of fresh powder so a well received deal could be shown at any time. I covered part of my short at 9.12 since it arrived timely for me. Still short, trying to be patient. Could do with an update to the fleet status report.
FCEL website doesn't show anything newer than 30 April wrt UI. PR from then begins: "April 30, 2014
FuelCell Energy Awarded 5.6 Megawatts of Ultra-Clean and Efficient Fuel Cell Power Plants by United Illuminating for Renewable Distributed Generation Development
Contracts Executed for a 2.8 megawatt Power Plant in Bridgeport Connecticut
Second Connecticut Site to be named in the next 30 days
DANBURY, Conn., April 30, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- FuelCell Energy, Inc. (Nasdaq:FCEL), a global leader in the design, manufacture, operation and service of ultra-clean, efficient and reliable fuel cell power plants, announced another utility-scale award for two 2.8 megawatt DFC3000® fuel cell power plants by United Illuminating (UI), part of UIL Holdings Corporation (NYSE:UIL). One power plant will be located in Bridgeport, Connecticut as part of a distributed renewable power generation project that also includes a solar array. The second installation will be located within the UI service territory at a site to be named in the next 30 days. "
I see the attractiveness of owning a long term, solid cash flow asset. Maybe they could set up an MLP and drop down these assets to the MLP after attaching long term PPAs, and the MLP can attract capital cheaply enough to make it work that they can pay the parent near full value. I own NM, they have an MLP in NMM. I own SDRL, they have SDLP. Etc. So with some financial engineering it could make sense. In the case of NM or SDRL, the brains at the helm are very good at financial engineering. In the meantime FCEL can sell the asset with the PPA so some other group that can rustle up the cash up front so FCEL can monetize the rev stream.
Today's PR says" FuelCell Energy is developing this project and expects to close on permanent financing on or before the commercial operation date of the power plant. The medical center has entered into a multi-year power purchase agreement to buy the electricity".
UC Irvine has some panache for sure. On the financials, FCEL seems either more able to move first and arrange financing later, or is actually feeling forced to risk owning it a while themselves in order to get something out the door and a PR. Maybe some of each. They're not cash strapped and it's a small deal. They clearly do intend to get financing arranged - they cannot afford to end up owning many of these outright nor have they suggested they wanted to.
Wow, pop to 10.30+. Time to prep for moving short. Actually, just made a small move short, if we top 11 I'll be making a substantial move. Bulk FFAs for Q3 and Q4 are above spot now but below where we should have expected per seasonality & sentiment, and stock price. NNA doing nicely and with some geopolitical developments to back it up, but the NNA contrib to NM is perhaps being overstated. Way long NNA, just edged towards net short NM. GL trading.
So far, hard as I've tried, I find nothing from SDRL talking about Rosneft taking a stake. They're free to buy shares, and free to talk, but I have to take these things with a few grains of salt, particularly when there are who knows how many translations / parties between the words spoken and what I read. Earlier reports were faulty in that it was actually NADL under discussion vs SDRL. I'm all for Rosneft taking a stake - it's a buyer for a stock I hold. Control is another thing. FWIW, I own essentially equal shares SDRL & NADL. Have some $30 Jan 2016 calls trading at intrinsic value - expect to convert to shares before ex-date next coupla days. Sold the rest of those (which I can't afford to exercise) today. Also have Jan 2016 38s and 40s :)
Rare I get to say Play_tow may be optimistic, but: SDRL Benign Environment newbuilds may not do anything for NADL, Rosneft may pay in-kind to an extent in form of onshore rigs. OTOH, JF still solidly shrewd and any subsequent sale of NADL stake could net a nice premium. Heck, NADL trades as high as 10 in AH (SDRL up too). At 3am SDRL will post the Q results. That'll be tomorrow's story. As someone else already said (on iV?) SDRL results for Q may be tough to evaluate given consolidation items but interest will be high on Rosneft, also Saturn & Jupiter. Happily I'll get to see the early morning release before becoming otherwise engaged. Will miss the live CC. Look forward to all your comments.
Believe Rosneft is going to pony up onshore equiptment vs all-cash consideration. Contracts on same. Also on the existing offshore rigs. Really not sure how much cash NADL will net, much less SDRL. I'll reiterate, has anyone seen SEADRILL say they expect Rosneft to take substancial stake in SDRL? Taking 25% of NADL costs very roughly half a billion. Of SDRL would cost probably 5 billion at absolute minimum, and going to near 50% as has been posted in press, certainly a premium, say $15B ?? So far I personally have not seen SDRL talking about Rosneft doing more than the NADL items. NADL makes most sense for Rosneft as, to put it bluntly, they're way the hell up North. Disclosure I bought a little more NADL today (though now I feel I was timid) and some more Jan 2016 $40 options.
Anyone see Seadrill talking about Rosneft taking a big stake in SDRL, or has that all been 2nd and 3rd party so far? I never thought of SDRL as a takeover candidate.
If SDRL sells it's own NADL shares then that's cash for SDRL, but NADL likely will need new cash and so sell new shares, perhaps, in order to pay for expansion and the new foray into onshore Russian work. Wrt newbuilds I'm a little skeptical a BE rig can be readily upgraded to an HE rig after construction gets underway - I imagine all kinds of things need to be engineered differently. The big BE rigs are UDW - is UDW required for the proposed Russian waters? I don't know. Deal may not be secure enough to start changing orders for several months. I suppose the need for new HE rigs could be used in negotiating BE rig delayed delivery. Lots of unanswered Q's should be a really interesting CC - too bad it's at noon - I won't be able to listen live and the market will be open. GL.
Astonished no post-CC commentary. I didn't get to hear it yet but read the report. Question 1: what was responsible for the 12¢ beat?? Q2: why did NSALI underperform even last year's numbers (not just on 'low margin' wet revs)? Fair enough on Navios Asia - we saw that wasn't working out as initially prognosticated - I assume when I get into the details it'll seem AOK. Anyone have thoughts theres? I do NOT like that the Navios Asia slide was all about the good side to exclusion of tradeoff. No slide about what they had previously scheduled. Time to listen to CC. Must say, though, for all the folks I've known on these boards who have been involved with NM, seems a dearth of commentary today. Looking forward to your thoughts tomorrow.
pd - southport ha this to say: "DHT have emerged as the buyers of the VLCC “YOUNARA GLORY” (320,051 dwt, Built Daewoo 2004, MAN-B&W main engine) and not Navios Acquisition as was widely reported last week; the price US$ 49 million. In other VLCC sales, Sincere Navigation have finally sold “CHARLES EDDIE” (305,178 dwt, Built Daewoo 2002, B&W main engine – ss passed 8/2012) at a price of US$ 41.5 million. "
Sure looks like AF shrewd and patient, the CHARLES EDDIE matches what the earnings report describes.
AF says breakeven on these 2 are 16-17,000/day, also said expected delivery in June. Some discussion of cash on hand 165m less 2014 capex portion 70m leaves cushion - and apparently the 19m from VL sale hasn't been included in that 165. Still not a share traded that I can see, premarket, and call is done.
There was some handwaving recently about how vessel purchases were made at great prices and had already appreciated. Let's see how front and center this impairment appears: "Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Net Income per share (basic and diluted) for the three months ended March 31, 2014, exclude a $10.7 million non-cash impairment loss recognized for one of our VLCCs sold in May 2014, a $1.0 million non-cash impairment loss related to a receivable, a $1.2 million non-cash fair value loss related to other assets and a $1.4 million for non-cash share based compensation expense."