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Global Ship Lease, Inc. Message Board

foo_star 24 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 17, 2015 10:04 AM Member since: Jan 19, 2001
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  • foo_star by foo_star Jul 17, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    4.30 with 362k traded in first 30 minutes. JUMPY. Someone finally figure out how much NNA NM owns? Or is this somehow just Gre-re-entry silliness? Sure BDI is up from its lows, but yet to be profitmaking for most.

  • Reply to

    Backing into Consensus EPS

    by trubulator12345 Jun 26, 2015 2:47 PM
    foo_star foo_star Jun 26, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    not updated their estimates - bingo. that's been my assumption anyway. they may have internal estimates but what flows to published consensus ... / hey, nice up day.

  • foo_star foo_star Jun 19, 2015 8:14 AM Flag

    Well if Fred is the buyer then the earlier reports were off - but that's half normal. Quite the frenzy of VL S&P last couple weeks. 1-yr TCs for VLs just hopped to 47.5 today from 45k, and MR 1-yr rose to 17.25 a couple days ago. WS 70 now on TD2,TD3, and 85 (!) on TD4. Q2 is in the bag - Q3 is looking to start gangbusters. Be interesting to see what AF does with the fresh cash - are VL purchase prices going to bolt?

  • Reply to

    Report of VLCC's purchased.

    by el1genio Jun 9, 2015 9:48 AM
    foo_star foo_star Jun 17, 2015 9:47 AM Flag

    C-Dream with charter till 2019 and Celeste with 18 months plus another 2 year backstop by NNA at 35k. So we don't see a fresh LTC on a dropdown. $100M with 27m in new subordinated - but they convert to regular after 3 years 1:1.

  • foo_star by foo_star Jun 17, 2015 9:08 AM Flag

    Esperanza was in the NM fleet per 21 May earnings report, but as a long term charter-in with charter expiration listed as 9/2015. Looks like owner has sold it, not clear which greek buyer took it but NM did not have a preexisting purchase option. "The Japanese-owned Panamax “NAVIOS ESPERANZA” (75,356 dwt, Built Universal 2007, MAN-B&W main engine) is reported sold to Greek buyers for US$ 14.1 million. "

  • Reply to

    Report of VLCC's purchased.

    by el1genio Jun 9, 2015 9:48 AM
    foo_star foo_star Jun 10, 2015 7:58 AM Flag

    Indeed. Southport reports:
    The German-owned VLCC “ENERGY R” (319,012 dwt, Built Hyundai Samo H.I. 2003, MAN-B&W main engine) and her sister “POWER D” (319,012 dwt, Built 2003) are being reported sold to Navios at US$ 43 million each, more or less in line with the last sale of a 2003-built VLCC, “DS VOYAGER” (309,323 dwt, Built Samsung 2003) which obtained US$ 42 million in January.

  • Reply to

    NAP Term loan B price talk

    by trubulator12345 Jun 5, 2015 3:04 PM
    foo_star foo_star Jun 5, 2015 5:10 PM Flag

    too bad that's charter-free LTV, the charters hold value.

  • Reply to

    Not much supply

    by davidachman Jun 5, 2015 10:02 AM
    foo_star foo_star Jun 5, 2015 5:07 PM Flag

    "BDI has been acting a lot better of late"??? BDI is so far down in the sewer a little vibration can't be taken as doing a lot better. Spot rates are loss-making. Those 12k, 12.5k rates NMM is getting from NM are temporary & artificial - at the end of the charter period NMM will have to settle up with NM. The best thing about bulkers for NMM is that NMM is no longer primarily valued by the bulkers - it's remaining value is mostly in the containers - chartered out for long periods at known cash flows. I like NMM at these levels and expect the next behemoth container transaction to close shortly. That ought to strengthen NMM but may already be baked in. The bulkers I almost write off - we'll be lucky to do much more than break even on those till maybe 2017.

  • Reply to

    Selling 2 VLCC?

    by ttullio3 May 27, 2015 6:29 PM
    foo_star foo_star May 27, 2015 8:38 PM Flag

    These are the 2 dropdowns that AF talked about in the Conference call. NAP pays cash to monetize the value of the cashflow for NNA. These are VLs with only part of the value in the ships themselves, the other part in the enforceable longer term charters which pay out over time. NAP has lower borrowing costs because it only takes vessels with guaranteed cashflows, so it is in the position to pay NNA a solid value for those cashflows, so NNA gets to cash out. NNA loses a little stability in future cashflow but pockets the money (most of it) up front. The $205m goes not only towards the purchase but also "and to refinance existing term indebtedness." I haven't seen ID of the vessels yet of the purchase prices. I see todays info as a positive, but a small one, in that I already had faith AF would execute exactly as she had indicated in the CC. This is just the confirmation.

  • Reply to

    No love here

    by jkprice May 13, 2015 1:42 PM
    foo_star foo_star May 22, 2015 9:03 AM Flag

    Those 12k-12.5k bulker TCs are from the parent, they're artificially high. NM will be sucking up the difference. Gives one pause. Higher chance the bulkers end up impairments. See NM board for more, or listen to NM CC Q&A - starts about 60% through the call. GL.

  • Reply to

    Untangling the Story - From the Q1 Presentation

    by steri318 May 21, 2015 8:24 AM
    foo_star foo_star May 22, 2015 8:54 AM Flag

    Agree wrt NM/NMM. Just listened to the call and ugh. Hadn't realized those 12k NMM rates were totally artificial and that NM woud be paying the freight on the difference. That'll thump NM earnings for the duration. Bot a token add yesterday of NM at 3.51 but even this low, might throw them back and reduce further. Delays with the NSALI VALE project don't help, nor does NSALI barge convoy delivery slip. Fall restocking *might* bump BDI but from this low it's all still loss-making. I'm already heavy into NNA, was looking to slide into NM & NMM, but that cross-dealing has given me pause.

  • Reply to

    So earning reports are at 8:30 tomorrow!

    by kimiabreen May 20, 2015 4:37 PM
    foo_star foo_star May 20, 2015 10:45 PM Flag

    Short term bulker rates stink and the payments from the sibs are unchanged. Variable is NSALI but the last of the barge convoys are yet to arrive, so not sure how much it can add as a kick. The bulker outlook is gloomy and more and more of the earlier higher rate charters have rolled off. The sum of the parts argument can be made, but won't juice the PPS. My 2¢. That said NM and NMM are / are becoming attractive for 'buy low' and then be patient.

  • foo_star foo_star May 20, 2015 7:26 PM Flag

    As long as NNA stays true to it's stated long term plan I'm sticking with it. The yield right now is decent and the longer term fundamentals look to carry the shorter term results up - as AF is able to lock in the better recharters, while profitsharing becomes more reliable and substancial and normal. So yes, with the cashflow allowing the delever, and then that allowing a divi bump, then finally our 3.75 PPS will hop to say 5 as you suggest. Longish road but the plan has been to lock in profitshare for what's chartered and to seek longer term charters at the higher rates when they arrive. So I'll be pleased to see the new charters and then content to let the cashflow wind it's way through. Really nice bumps last 2 weeks in 1-yr rates and the 3-yr not far behind.

  • Reply to

    Profit Sharing...

    by ttullio3 May 16, 2015 9:06 AM
    foo_star foo_star May 16, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    Yes! I see WS 80 now on TD2 (AG- SPORE), and 1 yr VL TCs hopped from 40 to 42k. 3 yr still at 40. PS on our VLs will be fine - but much more importantly we have a lot of plain old index exposure - so earnings this Q will BEAT last Q, and last Q was so much better than ever before. Sheesh this is a nice story. Add to that that AF upped her NM stake. NNA is my largest holding. May finally be time to move more $ to my trading account and ease into even larger Navios group holdings. Hey - thoughts on NM itself? Except for the core bulkier fleet all the kids are doing nicely.

  • Reply to

    No love here

    by jkprice May 13, 2015 1:42 PM
    foo_star foo_star May 13, 2015 9:07 PM Flag

    I bot my first NMM in years today & a couple days ago. In at 11. I look at the rest of the year for the bulkers and of course they're all loackid in at 12k-12.5k - the recently locked that is. NMM removed the bulker question for the rest of the year, and really it has been transformed, revs wise, to the container sector. There are a few decent earning bulkers, and a bunch at barely breakeven (eg the 12s I mentioned) and 3 that AF pretty much said would be dumped (3 @ 20 yr old) as soon as she could find buyers willing to pay enough she won't keep running them at breakeaven waiting. So count the bulkers at contributing near zip to profits for a couple years. They're commintted to the second 13,100 TEU container earning 60k/day and already the C sector is the main driver. 1.77 /yr for 1.5 yrs to end 2016 has been pretty much promised, and if you bank that then getting in now puts you at a prett ylow basis in 18 mos, and the containers all have years to run - so are the bulkers all going to be impairments? I doubt it. Some impairment - coould be - but most limping along at breakeven and with a potential to rebound a year later - call it a wash. I'll move in slow, but if I have cash to spare and prices languish - then this is definately high on my uy list. GL.

  • Reply to

    Potential buy signal

    by hgpabade May 11, 2015 11:41 AM
    foo_star foo_star May 13, 2015 8:53 PM Flag

    Jerk. Eleanor R was a wonderful role model for women and if he didn't like her because of her views, what, he reverted to attacking her looks?

  • Reply to

    Amazing

    by trubulator12345 May 13, 2015 4:47 PM
    foo_star foo_star May 13, 2015 8:49 PM Flag

    With some share buyback - which AF did speak about, and some movement to LTCs, and some deleveraging as was her stated #1 use for this surging cashflow, a sustainable div raise will become possible. I don't see it in a quarter, though, next Q i expect to see deleveraging, 1 vessel buy, 2 vessel dropdowns, a rather modest share buyback, and a slight increase in cash. Trub I agree there will be rising analyst estimates - it's almost inevitable now as Q2 fundamentals are so far equal to Q1 and Q2 is not always a great Q for this sector...

  • Reply to

    Earnings 13¢ with 7.7m profit sharing

    by foo_star May 13, 2015 7:53 AM
    foo_star foo_star May 13, 2015 9:42 AM Flag

    Most of the bump from the VLs for NNA comes from straight floating rate charters, too, vs base +PS, so the nice floating rates contributed directly to the bottom line. I like that AF appears reserved in terms of considering potential acquisitiions at this point. Maybe some 1-offs but no megadeals. Opportunistic buys of fresh tonnage, even resales from the yards, to provide liquidity to mixed-fleet owners who really can't afford to leave $ tied up in brand spanking new VLs, and are happy to cash out. Also AF talked about 2 likely dropdowns to NAP, slight dilution of NNAs percentage ownership in NAP, and potential use of the cashflow to actually execute some share buyback. They can do that without altering the very steady cash dividend and AF said she likes to keep that cash div very stable - not risk needing to pull it back. One more ting - yes, longer term charters are in the wings - there's interest by the charterers.

  • Reply to

    Earnings 13¢ with 7.7m profit sharing

    by foo_star May 13, 2015 7:53 AM
    foo_star foo_star May 13, 2015 8:14 AM Flag

    From slide 14: "Four VLCCs on floating rates earned $56,060 on average in Q1 2015".
    From what I can see Q2 should be similar - WS rates have held up nicely so far & we're halfway through. Anyone else going to listen to the call?

  • Reply to

    Earnings 13¢ with 7.7m profit sharing

    by foo_star May 13, 2015 7:53 AM
    foo_star foo_star May 13, 2015 8:07 AM Flag

    Turns out the profitshare came mostly from the MRs: "$6.6 million from product tankers; $1.1 million from VLCCs" this surprises me... but could(?) be explained by a lag in PS results from published WS rates. Do they accrue daily? They're paid only periodicly & a vessel voyage finishes quite some time after the charter is arranged, yes?

GSL
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