Baltic Dry-indeksen stiger nye 4,2 prosent til 1.136 poeng onsdag.
Capesize 14.118 dollar (+ 12,2 prosent)
Panamax 8.536 dollar (+ 3,3 prosent)
Handysize 7.260 dollar (- 0,3 prosent)
Supramax 9.488 dollar (- 0,4 prosent)
Capesize-ratene har dermed steg over 54 prosent på to dager.
my thoughts? i think i blew it reentering too early. NM will survive. there is cash in hand. the q1 2015 cape FFAs remain bleak however so near term earnings, for what that's worth, will remain "under pressure". shippers, drillers, all pummeled.
2% as the Master in the Master/Limited is common, and there will be a premium schedule should the MLP raise distributions above certain thresholds. NNA may retain a portion of common units as well / that's common but I confess I haven't read the details yet. 1 year VL rates just jumped to 29000/day and 3-year up to 30000/day as they have been for a couple of weeks. That's an attractive rate at either duration, so not a bad time to monetize the available contractable cash flow. The MLP will have lower borrowing costs than the parent. Parent NNA now seems poised (no guarantee) to become a more pure play products co with an associated well defined cashflow from the VL MLP. At NNA current price, assuming our stalwart posters have stated the gist correctly, I really would like to re-expand my position. I'm still overweight bit did sell some before we got this low - wanted to free some cash for other plays. NNA screaming for me to do the new DD and prepare to buy back in. FWIW even the products rates for MRs are now above 100WS so finally, some short-term improvement there. GLTA Longs.
I'm bullish from whatever the current bottom turns out to be... through most of 2015. I have a hedged position now (own shares but sold Jan 7.50s against them) but was tempted to buy off the 7.50s today and go naked long. The BDI seasonal run will come, and 2015 macro looks good. So, soon. And then out by mid 2015.
FWIW, the story headlining this thread was published 22 July. Note that we had a nice spike in the PPS on 21/22/23 July.
Basics of this were revealed in May, and details still are under wraps, so as another poster said, it's a pig in a poke. That is, we don't have enough info to be able to model it financially / can't see the details. Note the exit clause was set at 77 days wrt the land rigs. About 23 days ago the exit for the offshore deal was 100 days. So both would be finalized circa 10 November. Rosneft is gaining about 100m new shares of NADL 'paying' 9.25/share whereas market is over 10, so worth $1B. They're paying for it in the form of 150 land rigs with 5 year employment contracts attached, plus some amount of cash. Terms on all of that not yet public, and cash portion likely depends on final valuations of rigs & such. I had a few shares and a pile of January $10 calls. I sold the shares at 10.30 and figure on holding the calls. Tell you the truth I was hoping the land rig portion might never materialize or at least not till the offshore details came out. Might have been easier to value as a pure offshore play. They did warn us, though, and JF's PRs are pretty reliably accurate. GL.
All the logistics bond extinguishment costs are adjusted away now, leaving NSAL to appear better in future. Read the whole report. CC at 0830 but I'll miss it / look forward to your comments.
Sale note: The Marubeni-owned “NAVIOS TITAN” (82,936 dwt, Built Tsuneishi, Japan 2005, B&W main engine – ss/dd due 11/2015) has been sold for US$ 17.7 million to Ionic Shipping.
This was in NM's long term chartered-in fleet, was delivered to NM in 2005.
From NM fleet listing: Navios Titan
On November 17, 2005, Navios announced the delivery of a new vessel to its long-term chartered-in fleet, the Navios Titan.
The Titan is an 82,800 dwt Panamax built in 2005 at the Tsuneishi Shipyard in Japan. The Titan has been chartered by Navios for five-years with an option for three additional years. The Titan has been chartered out on a multi-year contract at a favorable rate.
PPS rise bouncing off the bottom as BDI turned was pretty dramatic. I was poised for a possible double whammy if rates were still near the bottom and NM earnings came in anemic. Fresh pow at the ready. I still think they will come in anemic because of all of the short term charters earning garbage rates. So I wou;dn't be sure we don't touch 8 again soon. It'll be very interesting to see BDI over next several days approaching earnings. GL.
Baltic Dry-indeksen stiger nye 7,7 prosent til 1.015 poeng fredag.
Capesize 14.391 dollar (+ 12,5 prosent)
Panamax 6.397 dollar (+ 8,7 prosent)
Handysize 5.663 dollar (+ 1,3 prosent)
Supramax 9.170 dollar (+ 1,8 prosent)
How slow it down? Well, youo're absolutely right if you mean the land-based rigs. And as far as I'm concerned, that's AOK. Really want NADL to own rigs on Russian soil in exchange for Russian shares in NADL? I'd be totally happy if this offshore deal is as far as they get - the $$ will be great and the Russian ownership would be factored out. I don't see any reason to think this offshore deal is going to fall apart, and I expect that the rigs involved will go directly from conclusion of current contract (or yard as case may be) to moilization and then service. GL.
Oh yeah, forgot to mention. Bot 1000s of shares today some as low as 9.26 (happened to be watching just minutes after news crossed wire at Rosneft site), and 40 call contracts, + 40 yesterday. Jan 10s at .45 both days. Did not hit the bottom but grabbed some leverage. REALLY interested to see the open tomorrrow.
Wait till tomorrow, and then till the rates are revealed. Northern Offshore is providing the Energy Endeavor, but taking only about 150m for this (older) rig over 2.5 years. So the rates for NADLs current/assigned fleet may impress (to get to the 4.25). That will support SDRL too. Some good discussion on IV / looks like deal may have been rushed to ink to be legit as pre-sanction. Troim has had a hell of a first day in revised role! (Left Seatankers, will concentrate on SDRL/NADL/GLNG).
Then again, a mispriced asset is an opportunity. So if you dig in and do your own DD and then have the conviction to stick to your guns, you can outperform the misinformed and lazy, overreactive, headline readers. Expensive lessons.
Today the BDI was up 7 to 739. Capes are at under 9,500/day. Panas are at under 5,000/day. These are loss-making rates for most everyone in the industry. Loss making for the long term charter-ins of NM, too. You're right though, seasonal strength will be upon us this fall.
Here re the WS rates for the main VL routes as of yesterday: TD1:28.75, TD2:56, TD3:56, TD4:62.5. Worldscale rates are renormalized each year with 100 being the base and generally expected midterm rate. So though VL WS rates are up from February, thy are still woefully low. A 12-month VL TC now can be had for 25,000/day. A 36-month at only slightly more, 26,750/day.
Product rates are up recently too and are comfortably over 100 now. The 4 MR rates I watch are at WS 100,130,115, and 109 respectively, with LRs at 114 or 115. These are profitable rates. For 12 mo TCs an MR is fetching 14,000/day, and for 36 fetching 15000. The 12 month rate is actually down from 14,250 a couple of weeks ago. GL.
Just for the record, I edged LONG today by buying off the rest of my Jan 2015 10s at .50. Still have most shares hedged by Jan 2015 $7.50 calls sold against them. PPS 8.20 now. I figure we could see 7.50 but just as easily float here. ANYONE else trading this puppy? GL.