My long position requires a snorkle and I take no joy in gallows humor over the wall of worry management has created here.
I grabbed some at $2.42 going into the close. Shorts put a lot of stock on the ASK trying to cap this, but it was being taken in nicely.
Awful financials and price realizations, but encouraging production results in both plays. Word Merchant Jay will be put to the test today.
Look ahead, we're on the bottom now, the past is the past There is oil in the barge that will be sold this quarter at higher prices and new wells are coming on. Too bad they wouldn't talk EBITDA going forward because they don't want to be burned by inherent variability, but it's clearly going to rise from RBC's March report.
Well, that $2.25 was quick. I just glanced at the 10Q looking for the smoking gun and it must be the GOM oil production that must have watered out. It looks like a terrible acquisition, of course they don't tell you enough out of embarrassment to really know.
You may get a chance to come back in for $2.25 before they release the TB results. This is trading like dog dirt.
Unchanged on the day was a pleasant surprise. No question they try to cover up the failures in the JV wells (which is now three misses in a row) by referring to how cheap they were to drill, but they omit that they spent $10 million cash to buy into the JV. They weren't questioned critically at all on the corporate finance fiasco, the JV debacle, or any other prickly issues.
The discussion of 2016 prospects and assumptions suggests to me you buy this under $15 with a degree of confidence.
I like "May" for the suspense and unpredictability it creates. Shorts have to gingerly cover now as best they can because 40 million a day was cited, along with infrastructure upsizing for 100 million a day for the field.
Charlie used " May" today in NYC whereas Todd Zender had suggested May 1 previously.
Our only rig commitment ends shortly with the Pintail well in the JV so we can expect a hungry drilling contractor to bid for the Golden Eye and Merganser wells which follow Pintail..
The borrowing base re-determination number of March 30, 2015 will have critical impact on 2015. Hope we hear that today.
Sounds like the second of four duck hunts with our JV hunting buddy is underway. This time PQ selected the blind.
The recitation of the history in getting here is too painful to be angry about any more. You can be sure it's all about salvaging the most possible for the bondholders now and we're underwriting their expenses to take us to Ch. 11. If I'm too pessimistic and have missed something positive that could save us, please point it out.
We're just getting back into the part of the range from which we fell over the debacle of the secondary road show then cancellation. We have room to move higher just on the fundamentals of the CV results and TB hook up.
Triangle Petroleum Co. (NASDAQ:TPLM) had its price target raised by analysts at Topeka Capital Markets from $4.00 to $5.00. They now have a "hold" rating on the stock. 13.2% downside from the
previous close of $5.76. (Topeka issued this before the conference call today)
I'm holding my position, all of it under water, for the 2017 predicted turn up in natural gas prices. Their operations are sufficiently low cost that they can remain a float on cash flow and debt waivers will be forthcoming when needed. Unless they hit oil in their LA joint venture, I think we'll be range bound through 2017.