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Tennessee Valley Authority Message Board

foreverwhiteroses 19 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Jul 16, 2004
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  • foreverwhiteroses by foreverwhiteroses 15 hours ago Flag

    Anyone follow the preferreds? The new issuance of N shares indicated the POSSIBILITY of using some proceeds to call some or all P's after the first optional call date of 12/31/14. Does anyone have an opinion of the likelihood of them actually doing so? The spread 8 1/8 for Ns vs. 8 1/2 for Ps seems pretty tight to be using for call purposes.

  • Reply to

    This thing trading?

    by gretchn5867 Dec 15, 2014 11:24 AM
    foreverwhiteroses foreverwhiteroses Dec 18, 2014 10:17 AM Flag

    Well, it's trading, but it seems as though it's been in a slow moving downtrend ever since it announced its new dividend policy - either that or ever since the details of the divorce settlement. Seems a bit strange looking in from the outside - they seem to have the dividend easily covered so the 6% yield or so seems not to be at threat, tough to discern any noticeable #$%$ in the investment companies other than perhaps a perception of them being of junk bond credit rating status in an environment where junk bonds are getting revalued, so why does this thing have a negative trend going no matter what the general market's doing? Is it company specific or more an expectation of selling to be coming from the Mrs or something else?

  • foreverwhiteroses by foreverwhiteroses Dec 12, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    With preferreds still tanking, price of oil down again and other oil companies down, what else explains MILL common being up 8% today?

  • foreverwhiteroses by foreverwhiteroses Dec 10, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    Can someone explain the implications of company with a $50 mil mkt cap taking a $265 mil non-cash impairment charge? Any accountants here? What does this do to book value for example? I realize MILL instantaneously wrote up everything way above purchase price when they originally bot Alaska and many question that accounting, but what's the most important impact of this seemingly massive write down now? I'm admittedly totally clueless.

  • foreverwhiteroses foreverwhiteroses Dec 8, 2014 11:41 AM Flag

    I suppose it was more of a rhetorical question than anything from me but at least SD is a real company......I'm so risk averse these days I shouldn't even be following either of these, but to me, there are survivabilty options available to SD that will be a whole lot more difficult to come by for MILL. I do love when prices go to the ridiculous, though, so I do keep an eye on stuff like this.... Was fun buying preferreds of IStar a few years ago (in a completely unrelated field of course), but neither of these is another IStar imho...

  • foreverwhiteroses foreverwhiteroses Dec 8, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    So not at 13, how about 12? or 11? Are there levels you'd say are right for C & D? A preferred trading at nearly 24% current yield is obviously not trading on yield anymore... It's trading on likelihood or hope for eventual return of principal.... Is there a price in your opinion where the reward outweighs the risk?

  • Reply to

    Back to the 2s next week

    by dc97531 Nov 7, 2014 9:04 PM
    foreverwhiteroses foreverwhiteroses Nov 19, 2014 8:43 PM Flag

    So I guess the real message is that if just one life here is saved due to your posts, your job will have been done... You're more than a mere giver, you're a true saint..

  • foreverwhiteroses by foreverwhiteroses Oct 14, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    New Form 4 out indicating insider buy by J.... Yup, he really put his rep on the line by spending $2200 of his very own money on an open market purchase.... I'm going all in with based on his signal of 100% confidence.......

  • Reply to

    Don't Panic

    by biker_dick Oct 10, 2014 11:30 AM
    foreverwhiteroses foreverwhiteroses Oct 13, 2014 6:39 PM Flag

    Thanks again.... yes, I suppose the whole idea is to get the balance sheet back the way they hope to have it post QRE.

  • Reply to

    Don't Panic

    by biker_dick Oct 10, 2014 11:30 AM
    foreverwhiteroses foreverwhiteroses Oct 13, 2014 4:39 PM Flag

    Thanks, Cheap - you seem to be well tuned in. Did the debt issue get canceled? Comments on seekingalpha seem to imply it was but I don't see anything on the website or anywhere else that confirms that...

  • Reply to

    Don't Panic

    by biker_dick Oct 10, 2014 11:30 AM
    foreverwhiteroses foreverwhiteroses Oct 10, 2014 8:16 PM Flag

    Though your point is obvious when it comes to price changes for oil, you're also not factoring in QRE's contributions to future dividends. Their purchase analysis allowed them to talk about increased payout due to QRE covering ratio being higher than their own, didn't it? And where's the higher cost of debt coming from? Please explain.... Certainly the 400 mil jsut raised in debt can't be raising av cost of debt given the lions share is going to reduce other outstanding borrowings.. Nevertheless, if oil prices don't stabilize soon, your point on future ability to meet divvys is well taken and something undoubtedly now affecting share price...

  • foreverwhiteroses foreverwhiteroses Oct 10, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    Interesting you say that about brokers. I tried to tell TDAmeritrade I will want the dividend in stock and they said SAR does not qualify for them to do anything else but paying me in cash.... That was on Day 1 of SAR's announcement.

  • foreverwhiteroses by foreverwhiteroses Oct 9, 2014 8:54 PM Flag

    With BGCP being brokers, to the extent their business remains based on equities, it shouldn't matter which way the market's going because they don't take positions. It's market volume that should matter most.. Today's reported volume was substantially above average and that's supposed to be good for BGCP, but when the downtrend is so severe, ain't gonna happen. So theoretically, BGCP becomes even more of a bargain if it gets dragged down when overall market volume goes up, right?

  • Reply to

    Ugly sell off....$3's almost here...

    by creedster_99 Oct 6, 2014 11:57 AM
    foreverwhiteroses foreverwhiteroses Oct 8, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    To what degree are MMs human these days????????

  • Reply to

    14,000,000 New Units

    by crusnthrulife05 Oct 6, 2014 4:18 PM
    foreverwhiteroses foreverwhiteroses Oct 8, 2014 10:40 AM Flag

    Well, on the bright side, I guess the price action post secondary guarantees no exercise of the greenshoe option........

  • Reply to

    Perception

    by foreverwhiteroses Oct 8, 2014 9:51 AM
    foreverwhiteroses foreverwhiteroses Oct 8, 2014 10:04 AM Flag

    BTW, as an aside, I mentioned before that I'd seen what's happening here happen earlier this year with a similar tech stock, AUDC. A VOIP play linked to MSFT's Lync's success, AUDC issued a secondary on March 7 at about an 11% discount to the previous day's price (INVE's pricing was much more severe of a discount) and now, 7 months later AUDC is down 51% from its price the day prior to the secondary.... They missed their numbers in the quarter after the secondary.

  • foreverwhiteroses by foreverwhiteroses Oct 8, 2014 9:51 AM Flag

    What an amazing entity the stock market is...... With today's #$%$ INVE opening, INVE is now down more than 20 % from the secondary pricing and down 43% within one month's time, all with zero known corporate negatives other than the issuance of the new shares.....What's different mostly is perception and that's just amazing to me. It's the ability of stocks to make such dramatic moves in such short periods of time that either creates unbelievable opportunity or fear or both..... For me, it's both........

  • Reply to

    Normal Yearly Drop

    by marcpark Oct 6, 2014 2:38 PM
    foreverwhiteroses foreverwhiteroses Oct 6, 2014 5:44 PM Flag

    "Knew?" Like a secret society that knew? Don't think so, least not ah... It was announced no later than 13 minutes after the close which seems to coincide pretty well with the drop. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Though they may not have telegraphed the move, it was only a matter of time after QR. It was time to get the balance sheet more in line..... What I wonder is who knew DURING today's session? It sure acted as though some knew the timing. In any event, as others have said, this has been the pattern for BBEP for as long as I've been involved...... I just take the opportunity to add on each time at the adjustment to share price.... It's worked out fine..... Don't forget the high percentage BBEP has its production hedged this year and next.... The decline in oil price doesn't impact them anywhere near the percentage the shares have dropped due to the issuance. It's another opportunity imho..... I do wonder what it means to their QR math about expecting to be able to increase the dividend after the deal closes...... How's that all work out with the new shares in the mix?

  • Reply to

    institutional ownership is growing nicely

    by duhu12 Oct 1, 2014 3:27 PM
    foreverwhiteroses foreverwhiteroses Oct 4, 2014 7:49 PM Flag

    The model? The dividend? If there's one thing not to appreciate about BGCP it's the model or perhaps better described the capital structure, that's for sure.... the complexity and apparent ability to shield normal shareholder, as opposed to the insiders, from much of the company's success is far from admirable... and as far as the dividend, to make a ridiculously wide generalization, how many institutions prioritize dividends the way we retail guys do? I've been an investor here for 3 years and am not dissatisfied, but I sure disagree with your rationale as to why institutional ownership is growing if it is... I particularly think the BGCP "model" to the extent that means capital structure is more of a deterrent to institutional ownership. To the extent the model means Howard's well timed move away from greater investment in what's been the core business of securities brokerage, I'm there...

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