Look at today's release. Look at the comp to '14. Look at the forward guidance. Yeah, both of them marginal at best, so what you would assign as a PE to a company with those results? Maybe 10 or 12? So, being incredibly generous and using non gaap earnings we should expect a share price in the low $5. That's where the cash pile helps us- thank you $8.50/sh. You dream about undoing the secondary.... Yes, it reduces number of shares outstanding, but it cuts down on the cash pile, and as long as the share price is below $8.50 simple mathematics says the secondary was a net plus for the market cap of mgic.
You still don't get it. The last smart thing they did was sell shares at $8.50. Then they fell asleep and the company has drifted along for the last 12 plus months. Look at the quarterly reports and you'll understand why the market has shown NO interest in them. If management starts to accomplish something and bring some growth the market will pay attention and the volume and price will rise.... But for now the price is where it deserves to be because of their lack of results.
We'll help me out..... This is a discussion board after all. What products are going to cause this skyrocket? Thanks.
Is this the business that himx is counting on for mass production? This conference is three little start ups that no one has ever heard of. They say this year we will once again blow people away- blown away? This stuff hasn't even made a stiff breeze. I understood the hope and hype for glass, but this stuff is so back water compared to google- it doesn't amount to anything. Even this occultus rift or whatever it is- how far down the road are we talking? And will it ever be anything more than a niche product like those Alienware computers. It seems like himx investors are banking on a massive business boost from all this stuff coming to market in the next 6 months. I just don't see any appreciable business from any of this in the foreseeable future. Again, I understood the glass hype and how the share price responded, but this makes no sense to me.
When I say the market is slowly turning their way, I'm interpreting the publicity and growing sensitivity to these contracts that essentially are a single source " good ole boy network" way of doing business as a opening for RWC. Hopefully , if it's 2006 all over again then you're right we'll just keep bumping along.
No, no one knows about RWC; forget about under the radar- you need sonar to find this company. Look how many shares trade a day. When you list to their quarterly call, then have one caller call in- the same guy every Q, Allen , end of list. When hear the RWC executive team ever went to a investor conference to tell their story?
Like I say you see the glass half empty. I see a company that knows what it wants to accomplish, they know what the have to do, they have the financial strength to invest in that plan and let's see what happens.
Why are you so angry dude? Self described making money hand over fist- something's not right with your story. As someone else has already pointed out you claimed to have closed your supposed short position in the low $3's. I say supposed because I find it unbelievable that there is a brokerage that would facilitate a short sale of a nano nano cap stock in the $3 or $4 range. Would you mind sharing the name of the brokerage that you used for your short? And cheer up for cripe sakes- it's only money!
There is no industry yet and glass has shown us that it is by no means a sure thing. There is no proof of even limited consumer acceptance, much less wide spread adoption. The industry that they do have is falling through the floor.
I could ramble on again, but I'm wearing myself out. I agree RWC's past performance is not a confidence builder. Don't see any concern about pricing pressures- Motorola's success shows us how much price matters and per Mr Storey a couple of competitors have actually exited the business.
My feeling is this; you're seeing a glass half empty, I'm at this point seeing a glass that will very likely become half full ( good for $8/sh) and a possibility for the glass to become overflowing ($12+/sh). Here are some of the ingredients: a large addressable market that is slowly turning their way, activist funds on bod and pushing for growth, per CEO these 4 funds own over 50% of outstanding shares ( very low float), King2 radio, company is completely unknown and any good news makes it ripe for mo- mo players to run with it.
Bottom line is I like the risk/reward.
Thank you for your post. I for one appreciate hearing from the critical pov.
First my thoughts on last quarter.... In a word, I would say disappointing. If it weren't for the foreign sale likely the results would of been negative compared to last year's Q1. We don't know how much of that $2M fell into Q1 but I would guess at least half. So congrats to RWC and the Australian dealer for the win, but from what the CEO said on the call we really can't count on foreign sales becoming a regular contributor- at least not for the remainder of this year. At this point I would give the company a grade of "C", they're doing ok but really not a justification for a P/E of 50.
The reason I own shares in this company is not for where they are today, but on the hope of where they can be in a year or two. There is no reason they can't take the next step up and start to win bigger deals. I think the King2 radio will really help them in this regard. Even though I personally think the the share price is maybe 20% overpriced at this point, holding the shares with that risk is justified with the potential reward of what this company can accomplish.
On your post I have to disagree with point 3. I don't think pricing is a issue on these deals at any level. I posted about this previously, and my belief is that most of these gov./public safety agencies give the product price about a 20% weight when looking at the bid. For this mission critical piece of equipment they want the features and performance that they want and that's what they buy. They don't say this one is almost as good, but it's half the price so let's go with it- too much is depending on these radios to accept second best just to save money. That's how I've explained it to myself that Motorola can have 80% of the market yet be so much more expensive. That's why I think the King2 could really open things up for them. RWC will win when they can compete on performance not price. Again I like the risk/ reward here.
Well, I'm a total return kind of guy; if you look at mndo's ten year chart, knowing that Nasdaq was at 2200 at that time, of course add in their +$3 in dividends and you have a total return that is at best disappointing. Especially for a company operating in an an environment where worldwide shipments of smart phones increased 600% from 2008 to 2013- somehow MNDO managed to grow zero- how is that even possible? You're right that no one is forcing anyone to buy MNDO and that is sadly on display with the fact that investors demand a 10% dividend payout to put their money in MNDO shares. They're basically saying that the underlying company's ability for capital appreciation is zero. It reminds of the insult " your kid is so ugly you have to tie a pork chop around his neck so the dog will play with him".
Another thing is Bitcoin and these virtual currencies. There's got to be a great opportunity for someone to supply the tools for the cell phone providers to facilitate all these mobile financial transactions.
I was just reading a one page article in the economist talking about Africa, but I know it's many parts of the world where the "unbanked" people use their cell phones to make mobile payments and all sorts of financial transactions. It's actually finally catching on in the U.S. with things like apple pay. Worldwide not only will our phone replace our wallet but it will be the way that everyone does much of their financial transactions and banking. Couldn't MNDO get involved? I'm just really po'ed that for the last ten years they've went no where and these last results tell us it's more of the same- so much missed opportunity. I'm afraid they're going to sit on the sidelines and just watch this whole mobile payments/ financial transaction opportunity pass them by. That's my challenge to MNDO; get out there and try, for once get out on the field and take a swing. Maybe you'll strike out- still better to go down swinging for the fence than sitting huddled in the dugout playing it safe.
Dude, the dividend is a zero sum game (except for their expenses and your taxes), it's comes right out of the value of your shares. Witness when stock trades x dividend it will have its price adjusted down by the dividend amount. This will give you a thrill; transfer $1000 from your brokerage account to your checking account- SCORE you just got a $1000 dividend you lucky dog!
When himx proves it is something more than a low margin provider of commodity parts then the share price will go up. The market has lost patience with two years of hot air and hiding behind supposed NDA's.
Trust me the one thing that won't happen for the next 6 months is action. Earnings announcement assured us of that. A slow drift down to $2.50 because while there is absolutely no reason to buy, investors have unlimited reasons to sell. I thought from last year's positive results they were finally going to go somewhere, but now we find out nope, the one step forward and one step back carries on. How can a company that supports the cell phone/ internet access business( which has probably grown 500% to a 1000% in the last ten years) have less growth then a utility conpany? I wouldn't believe it would be possible but somehow MNDO has accomplished it- and the thing is the market agrees with me because when a company's dividend is +10% of the share price it shows the market has no respect for and gives no value to the underlying business.
Yes. If they are making massive amounts of those glass type displays then they are ok, but can that PP&E be switched to another product or do they even have any use for it if it could be converted, that is the question. An adjustment has to be made if it is unlikely to be put in service. It's all a gray area, but accountants are constantly questioning these things.
It was not R&D- the product was released and in glass. It was for plant expansion to manufacture the untold millions that everyone was certain would be sold.
You're misunderstanding; at some point they have to write off or create an impairment charge for the investment for glass which has been discontinued by goog. They can not just carry that on the books indefinitely as if it is viable. It is a gray area and that's where the arguing with the accountants comes in. Glass two? Who knows if or when or ever? Accounting is based on the reality of here and now, not hopes and rumors.
That's basically it. I've been a shareholder longer then I want to admit- well before that auction rate securities fiasco, and I guess the overall return over the years has been decent, but I've always felt like here is this company sitting in the middle of probably the biggest growth business in the world and they plod along a $5M/Q year after year. I keep thinking that through hard work or dumb luck this company in the middle of the cell phone business has got to at some point have some of this growth rub off on it. Yesterday's announcement was the last straw with me; management needs to get out there and do something, or sell this company to someone who will step on the gas. It's like a pool table with balls flying all over and somehow MNDO sits there year after year and goes no where, and I mean no where.
Well that's possible, but more likely they are arguing with the accountants about the write off for glass. I've never seen foot dragging as a good sign and when your Q4 release is six weeks out, your Q1 release should be 4 weeks out- so yeah, there likely will be some surprise in this PR. Take the foot dragging, add in the share price decline and the complete lack of PR or management communication and all I can say is, gird your loins.