I'm thinking China's wish to have their currency as the world's trading currency is the ace in the hole for gold, since the yuan is backed by gold it stands to reason the US along with western countries do not want gold to appreciate, obviously as gold goes up currencies backed by gold become more valuable, those that aren't lose value. And that simple fact makes me believe there is a western conspiracy to hold gold prices down, and IF that proves to be true, when gold breaks lose it will set new highs in quick time.
The LOL DOW isn't the way to measure inflation. Oil prices are down which will drive all services and goods down also.
It is cow dung if they can't mine at a profit, and it looks like deflation is here, which means of course lower commodities prices.
That's just another side dish it isn't the main menu, oil drillers like discussed before have commitments they have to keep, trains can't stop on a dime and neither does shale drilling. The thing to keep in mind is they are not drilling wells just to have them sit for future price increases, shale wells are way to expensive for that. They are not hooking them up simply because they will lose more money, it is the best they can do giving the situation, it isn't a new strategy to drill more wells and let them sit until oil prices get better, its a reaction. And as discussed before even though shale well drilling has gotten much cheaper, Yes rig numbers still matters. On the consumption side of things it doesn't look very well, and that is where the major part of the surplus lays.
Some points, the US number one export is gasoline and diesel. Refineries have been increasing their capacity almost non stop, an example Shell and the Saudi owned ARAMCO doubled the capacity of their refinery on the Texas gulf coast, the USD strength or weakness effects the price of US fuels, hedge funds manipulate the price of oil and fuels to the point that simple supply and demand almost means nothing. Scheduled maintenance of refineries effect the price as well as seasonal re-figuring of fuels. Worldwide refineries have expanded the capacity of existing ones, and new ones have been built. The US can't use all of the products our refineries produce, we are in a world market so if a few go down around the world it will effect the price we pay at the pump at some time and to some degree. Companies always whine and complain they can't be honest because they don't want to say anything that would play into the hands of the greenies or anti-trade bunch. Shell shut a refinery in California they didn't want to sell it, Flying J bought it but not without a fight and intervention from the CA government, Shell wanted to close it rather than selling, because they didn't want competition from it, point is they are not honest and greenies and consumer advocates are not always wrong or anti business.
Maybe this will move gold eventually, I just read an article by Stephen Leeb who I have a lot of respect for, says it is inevitable that there will be another world currency other than the USD and it will be from China and their money will b e backed by gold.
From Bloomberg TV. Side banner reads, "Exxon expects oil to remain near $55 through 2017. but with some volatility."
Barring of course any black swan event, like the Saudis or Iraq's oil fields going up in a blaze. But, I doubt that will happen since both all sides to a large degree depend on oil to finance their war. Ironic that both sides would be protecting the oil fields.
Thanks for the reply I was hoping spark some discussion on the subject, since it appears passive solar can compete with utilities, the proof of this is states like Oklahoma passing laws to protect utilities.
Utility customers who want to install rooftop solar panels or small wind turbines could face extra charges on their bills after legislation passed the Oklahoma House of Representatives on Monday.
Senate Bill 1456 passed 83-5 after no debate in the House. It passed the Senate last month and now heads to Gov. Mary Fallin for her approval.
The bill was supported by the state’s major electric utilities, but drew opposition from solar advocates, environmentalists and others. It sets up a process at the Oklahoma Corporation Commission to establish a separate customer class and monthly surcharge for distributed generation such as rooftop solar or small wind turbines."
I hate to put politics into this but it has to be in cases like this the Oklahoma is one of the redest in the Union, R. for sure dance to the tune of corporation interests, the party has changed from protector of the average American rights to the big brother of corporations.
I think it has more to do with hedge fund manipulation of future contracts, refineries changing blends, refinery down time for maintenance and export demand than oil supply vs refining capacity.. The US number one export is gasoline and diesel., diesel having the widest margin.
Falling rig counts insure that eventually oil production will drop. Important to note that drilling shale has progressed to the point that several wells are being drilled from one pad, that of course reduces costs and improves ROI. So even though many rigs have been idled the newer improved more efficient drillers are still probably mostly working. If memory serves me I think shale companies using them can recover oil at about 40 bucks.
I think the worlds economy will determine the price of oil, more than cutting the number of rigs drilling for oil will. A lot of cheap oil is still in the ground. China has been stimulating its economy for a couple of years now, still it slows.
By the end of April we should have a better idea of just how low oil may go. Note a lot of the oil in storage is sweet oil from shale, that is the reason for the big spread between WTI (Sweet) and Brent (Sour), which means a lot of sour crude will continue to be imported from low cost producers even as shale oil production falls. Probably getting tired of me posting this but I estimate there are 10,000,000 barrels a day of cheaper oil resources that can and will be brought on line soon mainly from Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia. As more and more countries realize oil prices are not going back to a hundred they will sell more and more in an effort to make up some of the revenues they need. Shale producers are in more trouble than the sour crude producers are. Again the Saudis are drilling at record pace which gives creditability that they expect oil prices to remain low for a long period of time and are going to be selling more oil at a lower price in order to keep their market share.
The U.S. has so much crude that it is running out of places to put it, and that could drive oil and gasoline prices even lower in the coming months.
For the past seven weeks, the United States has been producing and importing an average of 1 million more barrels of oil every day than it is consuming. That extra crude is flowing into storage tanks, especially at the country's main trading hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, pushing U.S. supplies to their highest point in at least 80 years, the Energy Department reported last week."