According to my calculations on cash-on-hand a few months ago (please look according post), a dilution should happen whatever the outcome in the Inventiv case. May be around April
(haven't looked at latests statements from CVM though, might be worth )
in any case, those SB of inventive hoping to win ... I think once again they are trying to gain time
"And what do you think the real reason is for exclusding the first 100 pateints recruited into the trial? let's see, those are the onse out now more than three years from their initial treatment, about the tie where one could plainly see if Multikine had any effect whatsoever. Geert's track record should make you ask yourself just what is going on here"
lol... it could be an extreme version of the truth indeed... however the 600+ pending + 200 incoming patients will some day show some result, won't they ?
These are valid reasons to state that the MK potential efficacy has not been proven as well as it has could
... but don't make MK being doomed.
Now, what's your self-belief of MK being doomed against the one of 600 patients under death threat plus the one of their MDs around the world ? Where they forced to take it ? Where they forced, as medical professionals, oncologists, to prescribe it ?
Realism is good, but a bit of humility is good as well... trial is on going, patients goal will be reached, valuation of pps will be re-assessed, and efficacy or non efficacy will be proven in the incoming years
since Feuerstein last infamous article about absence of progress in 2014, this stock has been going down,
Not really a fair treatment (to investors I mean), as, since then, recruitment of patients has been going surprisingly well
At some point this year this will reverse, even if next dilution is around the corner. Too much too happen that should reduce the overall risk. At least CVM should retrieve previous years market cap, eg pps adjusted from dilution, and let the risk weight on the real stuff : drug efficacy and nothing less.
Not won yet but I think a good bet in a diversified portfolio strategy
Honestly speaking, who to blame, the man who gives the stick to be beaten with or the nerd who simply computes the figures ?
Cel Sci has taken months to update their end-of enrollment date from Dec '15 to March '16 and now March to Summer '16 and soon probably_but not hopefully_ from summer '16 to fall '16.
That's not a way to plan things. That's not a way to communicate. It should be the exact opposite : they should plan pessimistic to deliver ahead of time...
I have computed myself a while ago on XL a estimate for the end of trial date and I obtained the following ( see below).
My XL showed that enrollment should end by sept '16 and study should end by Dec '17 - (300 unfortunate deaths). For this last date I am in line with cel SCi ... of course it will depend on survival and drug efficacy.