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CEL-SCI Corporation Message Board

fosco.sinibaldi 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 26, 2016 7:53 AM Member since: Jul 9, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Thoughts..?

    by trickledownfacist Mar 25, 2016 6:15 PM
    fosco.sinibaldi fosco.sinibaldi Mar 26, 2016 7:53 AM Flag

    a bit less than 2m/month ...

  • Reply to

    Hearing scheduled for June 2016

    by gtsmith0928 Mar 18, 2016 8:29 PM
    fosco.sinibaldi fosco.sinibaldi Mar 21, 2016 7:36 AM Flag

    DrKazm,
    According to my calculations on cash-on-hand a few months ago (please look according post), a dilution should happen whatever the outcome in the Inventiv case. May be around April
    (haven't looked at latests statements from CVM though, might be worth )
    in any case, those SB of inventive hoping to win ... I think once again they are trying to gain time

  • Reply to

    Three reasons that Multikine is doomed

    by johnnycassandra Feb 10, 2016 4:33 PM
    fosco.sinibaldi fosco.sinibaldi Feb 12, 2016 5:12 PM Flag

    "And what do you think the real reason is for exclusding the first 100 pateints recruited into the trial? let's see, those are the onse out now more than three years from their initial treatment, about the tie where one could plainly see if Multikine had any effect whatsoever. Geert's track record should make you ask yourself just what is going on here"

    lol... it could be an extreme version of the truth indeed... however the 600+ pending + 200 incoming patients will some day show some result, won't they ?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Three reasons that Multikine is doomed

    by johnnycassandra Feb 10, 2016 4:33 PM
    fosco.sinibaldi fosco.sinibaldi Feb 12, 2016 1:32 PM Flag

    These are valid reasons to state that the MK potential efficacy has not been proven as well as it has could

    ... but don't make MK being doomed.

    Now, what's your self-belief of MK being doomed against the one of 600 patients under death threat plus the one of their MDs around the world ? Where they forced to take it ? Where they forced, as medical professionals, oncologists, to prescribe it ?

    Realism is good, but a bit of humility is good as well... trial is on going, patients goal will be reached, valuation of pps will be re-assessed, and efficacy or non efficacy will be proven in the incoming years

  • fosco.sinibaldi by fosco.sinibaldi Feb 11, 2016 11:45 AM Flag

    more seriously ;-)

    since Feuerstein last infamous article about absence of progress in 2014, this stock has been going down,

    Not really a fair treatment (to investors I mean), as, since then, recruitment of patients has been going surprisingly well

    At some point this year this will reverse, even if next dilution is around the corner. Too much too happen that should reduce the overall risk. At least CVM should retrieve previous years market cap, eg pps adjusted from dilution, and let the risk weight on the real stuff : drug efficacy and nothing less.

    Not won yet but I think a good bet in a diversified portfolio strategy

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Ergomed

    by wrkngitout Feb 2, 2016 11:49 AM
    fosco.sinibaldi fosco.sinibaldi Feb 3, 2016 5:45 AM Flag

    Hi Mpj

    I hope you are doing well

    Honestly speaking, who to blame, the man who gives the stick to be beaten with or the nerd who simply computes the figures ?

    Cel Sci has taken months to update their end-of enrollment date from Dec '15 to March '16 and now March to Summer '16 and soon probably_but not hopefully_ from summer '16 to fall '16.

    That's not a way to plan things. That's not a way to communicate. It should be the exact opposite : they should plan pessimistic to deliver ahead of time...

    I have computed myself a while ago on XL a estimate for the end of trial date and I obtained the following ( see below).

    My XL showed that enrollment should end by sept '16 and study should end by Dec '17 - (300 unfortunate deaths). For this last date I am in line with cel SCi ... of course it will depend on survival and drug efficacy.

    Date Treated Deaths
    Mar-14 14 0
    Apr-14 34 1
    May-14 54 1
    Jun-14 74 2
    Jul-14 94 4
    Aug-14 114 5
    Sep-14 134 7
    Oct-14 154 9
    Nov-14 174 12
    Dec-14 194 14
    Jan-15 224 17
    Feb-15 254 21
    Mar-15 284 24
    Apr-15 314 29
    May-15 344 33
    Jun-15 374 38
    Jul-15 404 43
    Aug-15 434 49
    Sep-15 464 55
    Oct-15 494 61
    Nov-15 524 68
    Dec-15 554 75
    Jan-16 589 82
    Feb-16 624 90
    Mar-16 659 98
    Apr-16 694 107
    May-16 729 116
    Jun-16 764 125
    Jul-16 799 134
    Aug-16 834 145
    Sep-16 869 155
    Oct-16 880 176
    Nov-16 880 186
    Dec-16 880 196
    Jan-17 880 206
    Feb-17 880 216
    Mar-17 880 225
    Apr-17 880 235
    May-17 880 244
    Jun-17 880 253
    Jul-17 880 262
    Aug-17 880 271
    Sep-17 880 280
    Oct-17 880 288
    Nov-17 880 297
    Dec-17 880 305

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