Welcome, new Forbes readers / XIN investors, to the most undervalued stock on the NYSE. Below is a numerical analysis I did a few months ago. I haven't had time to update it, but the current numerical comparisons are very similar: It's a comparison of XIN to other chinese real estate stocks like Vanke, CHLN, and HGSH. It shows that XIN is massively undervalued.
Vanke and Xin are both in the same business, building residential housing in China. Vanke is larger and focuses more on first tier cities, but they are otherwise comparable. In particular, they operate under the same rules and same macroeconomic forces. Anything good or bad one can say about real estate in China applies to both. Vanke sells for over 8 earnings, while XIN sells for under 4 times earnings. This only makes sense if Vanke has over twice the growth potential of XIN, which is crazy. Similarly, Vanke sells for over 1.5 times book value, while XIN sells for 0.6 times book value. Again, this only makes sense if Vanke will grow over 200% faster than XIN. Similar analysis applies to dividend yields, PEG, and virtually every other fundamental measure of value. XIN trades on the NYSE in the US, while Vanke trades on the Shenzhen stock exchange, so if anything XIN's accounting is subject to more oversight and scrutiny than Vanke's. Vanke might deserve something like a 10% or 20% premium for being a market leader, but nothing remotely like the current 200%. As the Seekingalpha articles have said, XIN needs to increase to well over $15 a share to have fair value compared to its rivals.
I'm focusing on Xin vs. Vanke, because comparing XIN to CHLN or HGSH shows that XIN is even more undervalued. In paricular, if XIN were priced comparably to HGSH in terms or earnings or book value, or cash, or growth, it would be over $40 a share