Yes, ACAS shares trading today on higher average daily volume on a notoriously slow volume market trading day. "Step up to the window boys & girls and place yer bets!"
Glad I bought more when it was ugly!
And you never know, BWillie, you might wind up with a Triple Win--1) a tax free stock for stock buyout deal at a substantial premium further lifting your unrealized cap gain from a peer company that 2) pays a sizeable dividend, and 3) which also has a better management! Now THAT would be a day to celebrate!
And why not? If ACAS current management realizes the gig is up and they are Out, they too, through their stockholdings would benefit as much as we will from a Triple Win deal which would be better almost assuredly than being carved up like the proverbial Turkey and taken private.
I like your Turkey reference, BWillie, but think the Triple Win makes more sense!
But Sid, let me also say as a years long reader of this MB (granted, not as focused daily on this as many here are as I have a lot of other companies I need to follow) I have to point out that NMB, now Newly_Minted_Bucks, has been an EXTRAORDINARILY good and conscientious contributor to this MB for years. I apologize Sid, if I have the wrong guy or gal here, but if you are the poster who has been recently lambasting NMB for being something like a Management's Boy, I have to tell you as strongly but politely as I can that you are very, very wrong.
In my opinion, through my years of reading here, there has not been a finer, more diligent and thorough--and with deep understanding and cogent observations--contributor to the ACAS message board than NMB.
Always polite, tolerant and engaging opposite viewpoints, and truly a person to be Thankful for. That is the NMB I have read here for years.
Best wishes to ALL MB posters for a Happy Thanksgiving.
Just thinking that given ACAS management's history we might also interpret the engagement of Goldman and CS as ACAS management hiring both Goldman and CS to advise them on how best to DEFEND Elliot's foray into bringing change to ACAS which Not Only will maximize shareholder value but will ALSO, from my reading on Elliot's points, cause CURRENT management and BOD to be Ousted.
How often have I seen entrenched management's who have overly lavished themselves with excessive compensation at the expense of shareholders try to Protect their jobs and DEFEND against a White Knight like Elliot????? ----》 PLENTY!
I think it may be worth discussing ACAS'S hiring Goldman and CS in this light.
I will be emailing you as well NMB. Thanks.
Fox (long time poster/reader but a different poster than Foxyi)
Just wondering if, as you think back through your history of options trades in its entirety across all of your option positions in all stocks, or indexes, etc., whether you have made money in total or not?
Being a leveraged and timed bet, a succcessful net profit history typically is not on the side of options players. Most do not fare well over the long run.
That said, I think they probably have more fun!
Did you say that ACAS has indeed bought 25% of average daily volume recently? If they have done so without putting the price up on themselves then perhaps they can continue to do so. But 25% of average daily volume to me appears at face value to be risking putting the price up on themselves.
You have done an expert job of monitoring the situation and I defer to your wisdom.
Yet even your numbers seem to put us toward the middle to later part of Q1 at the earliest?
I guess that's why mama said, "Patience is a virtue"!
So roughly speaking, if they purchase $465 million dollars of shares at about $14 per share, ACAS would be buying in about 33 million shares. Average daily volume has been about 2.5 million shares traded. They can't buy too much every day as a percentage of average daily volume or they will put the stock price up on themselves. If they only buy 10% of average daily volume they would be buying 250K shares per day. So that means approximately 150 days of buying to spend $465 million dollars at an average price of about $14.
If ACAS is going to wait until they complete those stock buybacks to do the spin then we are looking at about 150 trading days, which is about 30 weeks given 5 trading days per week.
If that math is about right, that means at least 7 months before the spin is done.
Maybe I am missing something in the math?
I was hoping it would happen more quickly!
Is there a date set for the definitive proxy and what would be your best guess as to the spin date? I realize it is just an educated guess at this point.
Now that ACAS has stated that they have received the tax free spin confirmation letter from regulators, did they give a firm date for the actual spin off?
Or alternately, did they provide a date range for the spin once they got clarification as to the tax free status of the spin off?
Let's hope the CLO market rebounds and we get a nice lift in NAV in future quarters. Looks to me like the reduction in NAV at quarter end was due to UNREALIZED losses (read: price declines in CLO portfolio holdings which, if the CLO market rebounds in the next couple of quarters would result in UNREALIZED write ups to NAV).
The oil/gas market and participating companies in that industry will not be down forever. It is cyclical, and the cycle will, in time, cycle back upward. ACSF management specifically pointed to these particular CLO holdings as being those where the price declines were seen.
Good news on the expense front is appreciated and should be celebrated by shareholders assuming the offsetting personnel expenses we will pay for are not more than the reduction in management fee expense saves us!!!
At some point, these quarterly Earnings beats and continued increases in annual earnings expectations MAY catch the eye of Wall Steet and result in a lifting of the stock price. Not many companies reporting results as strong as FTD has.
So, he manages conservatively in good times to allow himself to be aggressive in down times.
How long have you observed him and has he Actually been an Agressive buyer of RE assets in down times?
Doing so should show a consistent long history of growing FFO much faster than per REITs, and comensurat Outperformance of the stock price.
Has he achieved this better than peer FFO growth?
Has he achieved a better stock price performance as compared to peers in the Long Term for shareholders?
If at such time the REIT is penalized in the market in terms of valuation, pressure will mount to materially increase the dividend. And recall that as a pass through entity REITS are required to pay out 90% of their taxable income. So there is a floor. But of course, much depends on how much depreciation reduces taxable income.
At any rate, FR is not a Zippy growth company, adding to square footage in a big measure each year.
But if a company IS a growth company, shareholders expect significant appreciation in the stock price to offset the lack of significant dividend.
But I certainly do not see a significant growth company type of increase in earnings or stock price at FR.
A question for you: Why do you think Duncan operates as you say he does?
Where is his motivation?
Why is he motivated to manage that way?
Long term debt is just slightly above shareholder equity. FR, is therefore very conservatively leveraged compared to peer REITs. No need to pay down debt aggressively at this point. Adding properties can make sense to grow the business, but recall that we are not in an economy that is either a) growing at even a normal historical rate of GDP growth, or b) an economy which is generating much inflation at all. The case for adding properties versus paying out more of cash flow to loyal shareholders hinges upon economic growth in the economy and inflation--both of which are crucial to increasing both the profitability and value of any new property purchases. With the absence of even a normal rate of economic growth, and very low inflation, shareholders should receive a substantially higher portion of cash flow than we are currently receiving. It is sensible and right. We are part owners of FR, too, and deserve to be fairly rewarded.
I wonder why they are being so stingy?
Come on Board, share the wealth with your shareholders who had faith to buy shares back in 2009 knowing that this REIT would survive and one day prosper again. Now, we are prospering again. Up the dividend MEANINGFULLY to a much more substantial percentage of FFO.