It would make a lot of sense, especially since msft needs a good size mobile foot print. However, not sure if they go for it. Sometimes these big companies think they can reinvent the wheel just because they have a lot of cash. ZNGA in my opinion cannot do it on their own. They need deep pockets that they can dip into when their cash starts to run out. This may be a longer turn around than everyone expected because the competition is not standing still. Therefore Don may need more time and money to keep experimenting, something he got used to at msft. Here at ZNGA you have a small cap with limited funds so you don't get that many chances to get it right. With someone like msft backing you up, all you need is to provide the genius and the money will continue to flow in to help you get it right. That's what Don needs, a big crutch so he does not have to worry about where the money is coming from.
If they show us they are burning cash, below a billion in balance while struggling to keep up, I will agree. Then be ready for a takeout. Investors shopping around looking for under valued investments with potential to grow and divest. Soda Stream which is another POS stock performer is a possible takeout and example of what could happen here.
Positive if they have managed to keep their overhead costs in check and not burning their cash down. Also a positive if they partnered with a large organization like Disney or EA to make mobile games under their branding with some cash infusion from them, then I would say go at it but to hire in pursue of a costly vision using your own resources while the competition is having your lunch? Sounds like the federal govt to me. Seen this approach before and it ends in the same manner. For sale!
In that scenario I would agree with the shorts who are expecting $2.50/share. The sell off we had over a month ago would be shadowed by a larger one. Then the cat will be out of the bag in that Don cannot make the turnaround with existing resources. This would cast further doubt on his success. Stock dilution on a stock that has been beaten down is a desperate move. Shareholders are moved to the end of the line in hopes of a better tomorrow.
Progress is slow and costly. We have to pay attention to cash burn this quarter, that will be the tell. They cannot continue burning cash or play with accounting rules to prop this up because the street will catch on. I say Don can't turn this around by himself. He needs deep pockets and some well branded game sponsors that are willing to use the platform he is working on to get the income up with all the overhead he is working with that's weighing on ZNGA. Or get rid of the overhead and become comparable to the competition.
I don't know if Amazon will but someone will. ZNGA will need a deep pocket suitor to pull out a white rabbit. The competition is getting tough. I have not heard of any major partnerships in the making such as Disney, MSFT or EA to leverage ZNGA technology and produce break thru games with huge market brandings that will insure success on the bottom line. ZNGA branding is limited and will require a larger stakeholder brand to jolt it pass the competition. RMG will take too long to materialize and why they decided to pursue mobile games instead. Time is not on ZNGA's side by themselves.
You realize he only gets one shot at doing this. A billion dollars don't last forever. He can on the other hand do it with some help from major partners or a deep pocket suitor who is willing to eventually transform their business to a mobile platform with ZNGA leading the charge. However, by himself and with ZNGA resources only at his disposable and stiff competition already getting a head start with less overhead, he has assumed greater risks for all of us. Lets see how smart this guy really is and if he is worth $50 plus million pay term given for non performance so far.
They will be taken out private by an equity firm long before they file. That way they won't need to read postings from ignored posters.
Different market caps. Gluu is under valued for the amount of money they can bring in. ZNGA has too much overhead for what they are bringing in today. However point taken that Gluu has made remarkable business improvements with small market cap in comparison to ZNGA. This means Don's payment terms are in excess for his performance so far unless he pulls a huge rabbit soon or sells this POS for $6 a share.
The XBOX did well. My point with the other blunders unrelated to Don, they did not place MSFT under any tremendous risk. Their stock is trading at all time high. They just announced layoffs and will be focusing on new things. My point is that they can afford to make mistakes and still continue to make money. Don does not have that convenience with ZNGA and he only gets one shot at getting it right. He stands a better chance with a larger partner or suitor with deep pockets.
Jul 9, 2014 MATTRICK DONALD A.
2,145,315 Direct Sale at $3.02 per share. 6,478,851
Jul 8, 2014 MATTRICK DONALD A.
4,046,428 Direct Option Exercise at $0 per share. N/A
not good when leader gets rid of half of what was given to him in stock.
Investment 101, when taking positions in POS companies beware that investor interest is not regarded as being that important to the companies prospects unless you are a major investor like Carl Icahn who can rattle cages to get his way because of the money he leverages himself with. We just ride the coat tails of the large fund owners. This next CC will let us know how well these guys are looking at our interests. If this turnaround gets dragged out, the sell off will be huge again. Too much risk in holding onto something that may not yield the right output given the current competitive environment. To think that ZNGA can pull itself out of this rut by themselves is delusional. They need to partner or merge with someone who can provide monetary and marketing support and leverage existing gaming brands that can go mobile on their platforms while continuing to work on break through opportunities that will take time. Don did well in MSFT because that was a huge enterprise that allowed them to take their time and divert whatever capital was needed to develop break through without jeopardizing the overall organization. 1 billion dollars in cash is not going to provide this endless research time that they need to create a break through and it is obvious they are not into quick turnaround games like their competitors. So if he wants to continue to play like if he was in a major enterprise, he better start thinking about merging or partnering with a big fish.
Don't look for clues on anything they do. They have nothing outstanding to jolt the stock up short of a takeout. The organic growth approach will take longer than your patience and the competition is not standing still. Expect samo samo with some improvements here and there but nothing to get this beyond. Already mid July and still no new games. This means they are satisfied with their progress and have a long term plan that will unfold very slowly over the next few months. A takeout will be less risk for us all here because anything beyond two years is too much risk in this fast track sector to have you money tied down waiting for a break through. I would welcome a takeout and then buy stock from the buyer. That would be a better bet than to hang around here for break through. At least I would have my money on a bigger player that has more growth and market potential and probably pays dividends. When the ZNGA division releases their breakthrough you can enjoy the earnings growth in betting on the parent company stock if it happens.
If he does not show progress this coming CC, wallstreet goons will roast him good. Investors will pay the price, while he enjoys his new pay for no performance terms and conditions. The BOD is too desperate when you see the terms given without pinning down a performance target for the terms and conditions to kick in. Hopefully he has a buyer or two lined up and can walk out of this gracefully. Gluu and King are going to give him a run for the money.
Gluu has the Kim Kardashian effect going on. Investors are looking forward and the stock will probably hit #$%$ really a lesson learn for ZNGA on what a small company can do when it stays focused on its goals with low overhead. This only adds more to my belief that ZNGA is holding back, especially with the number of resources they have and what they could do. Very good set up for a prospect suitor.
The Yellen concern that social media and biotechs have too much froth on their evaluations. Unfortunately for ZNGA it's in one of the sectors being sold off today but this is noise in comparison to what will eventually happen here. We are into the 2nd half and it appears ZNGA is sticking to fundamentals in its recovery. Would not be surprised that they show some improvements. How far we run up will depend on what Don tells us. If this is like last CC, then I expect a takeout in the works. He will be taken care of very well.
Order of priorities. Get the books straight, stop the bleeding and show a turnaround in the making. Surround yourself with talent to show you have the right stuff to make it while you find a suitor for this POS. Of course, Don already has advance payment terms for what's to come.
Obviously you haven't been involved in takeouts of these POS companies. They don't give a flying you know what about shareholders. The only ones that have any say are large funds and unless they are deep under water, they will not challenge because if they get their 60% premium above their cost they will approve. They are keeping a lot of things under the radar. No froth on the stock or the deal gets canned by prospect buyer. Once they get the share value down they get down to fundamentals and offer a forward value price for takeout. Only wild card is another bidder that improves pricing for us.