A one time non recurring loss that happens every quarter is NEITHER one time NOR non-recurring...There's your answer
This is from the macropolis article "Bank of Greece decision bolsters Greek lenders’ capital ratios." Especially the a) clause referring to a tender offer to from the HFSF to buy back the bank warrants (I'm guessing at a premium.) I know your a bear on NBG so I want to hear your interpretation cause mine is automatically skewed to the bull side.
"The next important developments for Greek banks involve: a) the new legal framework for bank recap and privatisation, amendments in the warrants exercise process, potentially including the HFSF’s ability to proceed to voluntary tender offers for warrants and b) the announcement by BoG regarding Greek banks’ capital needs following the outcome of Blackrock loan diagnostic and BoG stress test. The two parallel processes coincide and announcements are due to be made within January."
What get me is usually when a possible dilution is even whispered the stock tanks, even if its mentioned after hours. In this case, the BOG comments on additional capital were released a week ago and we're still within range.. just an observation, not saying it actually means one thing or the other. See back in May 2013 Prem Watsta from Fairfax Capital tried to put up 1.5 billion euro for NBG, but got blocked because he wanted "changes in the framework of the recap that are beyond Nat Banks control**." Now certain "legal frameworks for bank recaps" are being discussed with the Troika (as it was the Troika who probably blocked it before). Also interesting is the tender offer for the bank warrants.. See my mind automatically thinks good things...What do you think? (By the way not insinuating in any way they're doing this for Prem or Fairfax has anything to do with this, just looking to interpret the things going on behind the scenes with the little info I can find along the way)
**reuters "Greece's NBG path to Fairfax deal hits roadblock"
Now the big picture I see here is I think most people see the EU chocking on the extremely high EURO, and with the Germans locking in account surplus's higher than China it's getting ridiculous, but in all this PIIS 10 year bonds are at multi year lows. At some point, probably the end of Q1 Draghi is probably gonna have to do some sort of QE. It could be OMT, it could be LTRO with the stipulation that money be used for SME and MSE loans or many other things...Either way I like NBG here because it stands to gain a lot in that situation..Again I might just be totally wrong..
Now I'm not taking a shot at you Krim cause you're stating valid points, and if anything here I'm the one more on the side of speculating, but I missed the meat of the IRE move (got out at 8.50) because I wasn't being speculative enough, although I still think that #$%$ is BS, but it taught me that even a #$%$ty bank, as long as it has plenty assets, will grow in price (in this era of MOAR) as long as the bank can issue its own bonds. IRE was issuing 10 years with like 8% interest as it ascend in stock price was beginning.