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Geron Corporation (GERN) Message Board

franshei 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 18, 2015 4:45 PM Member since: Dec 4, 1999
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  • franshei franshei Jan 18, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    CYTX, IMHO, is now following OSIR into niche indications and marketing. CYTX, in the Bio Show Case presentation in SF, has now labeled different indications under different "names", just like different drugs in a pharma. Obviously, CYTX is trying to partner different indications with different companies, very similar to what ISIS Biopharma has been doing in antisense r/d.

    IMHO, the biggest mistake CYTX has made is overspending in the cardiac indication/s with the hope that a big pharma will come to partner. Yet, no big pharma has shown up. OSIR has been out of the cardiac r/d area some time ago and they sold their ip's to Mesoblast (name?; the Australian stem cell company). IMHO, CYTX should sell all the ip's/marketing rights in the cardiac area to Lorem Vascular. I do not think the chance of a US cardiac approval is far, far away and the clinicals would be very, very expensive. Yet, use of the stem cells in cardiac treatment would continue and flourish, in the style of Okyanos. IMHO, NBS is in the wrong path to overly emphasizing the cardiac r/d, similar to what CYTX was in.

  • franshei by franshei Nov 8, 2014 7:39 PM Flag

    I think Chuck is gone long time ago. If he is still around, he is using different names over time.

    I think " Seeing is Believing" has a good point re cardio use of stem cells. This is a very tough area for a small company to spend money that they do not have to show statistical difference between a treatment and a control group. I think around March or April this year, British Medical J has a very thorough evaluation re some large EU cardio studies (I think there are hundreds of patients) using so-called stem cells therapies: the medical reviewers are not convinced that in those large studies (backed by big pharmas), the use of stem cells is that great. Though CYTX is not in those leagues to be included in the evaluation, CYTX would find it very tough to find a phase 3 partner. However, with only limited patients, celution systems have been benefit many patients with improvement in the quality of life (re Dr. Perrin). Outside of the US in countries with different standards for regulating new therapeutics and medical devices, I think celution systems are being used in cardio patients (cardio vascular ischemia), as long as the procedure is safe and has some documented benefits. This is why CYTX has to address the 3 incidents of so-called side effects from the Athena trial, otherwise these issues would affect the Chinese FDA filing and the Okyanos operation.

    I think Hedrick-Tiago-Krestin-and others represent a new page for CYTX with new focus and style.

  • Fas and boarders have great in depth discussions.
    Conference call has very much previewed by Roth and Maxim (Fas site has both). Maxim has actually indicated last week or so that ATHENA would likely be stopped. DOV and many people agree that it would be OK in view of Okyanos' current activities. Okyanos cardio patient enrolment would exceed Athena in terms of pace and number. Maxim also indicates that all cardio data would be pooled. Probably, the pooled data as well as all the universal usage data (eg Okyanos) would point to a strong positive comprehensive conclusion. I think CYTX can further monetarize these data: partnership. selling this asset for cash, etc. But, stopping ATHENA at this point is wise, while the data from 31 patients would remain meaningful. These data should also help the sales and marketing of the Celution sytems overseas (marketing awareness).The money saved can go elsewhere: osteoarthritis ($ 3 million for 90 patients), etc. (less complicated procedures with more rapid pathways to FDA approvals).
    Look like revenue from Japan has been dry for a year. The new part time employee Shibata (very experienced deal maker, formerly from Baxter) may do wonders to make new deals in Japan to revitalize the sales in Japan.

  • Reply to

    Maxim Group reiterated a buy with $5 PT

    by markystrades Nov 1, 2014 3:44 PM
    franshei franshei Nov 2, 2014 6:22 PM Flag

    I think the Athena trial will continue (only 14 patients to go), after the local IRB approvals. IRD approvals may take a while, as the patient consent forms may be amended. Thus the restart date will be the beginning of 2015. For the past few months, since May, CYTX does not have to pay for about $1 Million for the last 15 patients, thus this situation may help the 2014 financial picture (the last six months of the year).

    Let us take a brief look at the current financial picture since last Q report. The quarterly r/d expenses total around $4 M and the administrative cost is also about $4 M. Let us take Hedrick's words that since Barda contract has been renewed and $12 M can now be drawn and it covers most of the r/d expenses. Let us say out of the $4 M r/d expenses, Barda pays for $3 M and $1 M has to come from CYTX. The administrative cost is now cut to $2 M, from $4 M. But there is a $500,000 severance pay to people on the pink sheet. Overall, there is a total of $3.5 M that has to come from somewhere. Let us say there is a revenue of $1.5 M coming from sales and there is another $2 M coming from past account receiveables (there is a total of $6 M from past sales due to receive the second half of 2014 into 2015).

    Maybe the November quarterly income report is not really bad.

    Regarding the balance sheet, the company has $7 M cash in July. Since then, there is one payment of $4 from warrants and another $12.5 M from sales of convertible preferred stock. So the cash on hand is now near $20M.

    Just my opinion.

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