It may or maybe not a false run. If it is a reverse head and shoulders and if we are in the reverse head, there should be a run and then a consolidation, before the real run (?).
The bottom maybe in. Why? 4 million shares are now in the hands of 13 MMs (at $1). If there they are in to make money in a company with real practical way to deliver cell therapies, then why won't they support the stock? Would they be happy with just a 10% instant profit? I think they would like to see a much higher PPS.
Forgot and Mr. Hedge, you are more technicians than me. What do you think re the formation of a reverse head and shoulders with the reverse head being formed right now?
James Dean and Forgot, I think the bottom may come tomorrow or so (just my opinion).
Talking about burn rate, I think China (KT Lim), Japan and now EU should all self sustainable. In the case of EU, moving the Swiss office to Deeside and selling celution system through contractors should lower the overhead expenses. The Welsh government is also CYTX monetary incentives for choosing Deeside.
The Okyanos stem cells clinic should help CYTX USA. So is the BARDA contract.
I see now CYTX USA cannot back down from the ATHENA trial. ATHENA is probably a major source of burning money. But, the current study hold (2-3 months in the immediate past and another month or so to go) may deter the immediate burn, till new money is coming in from Japan under the new regs in November (hoping so). If the new Japanese regs is effective in November, the sales and marketing activities may have started now. The reduction in headcounts (20%) should also help the burn rate.
Did Saad and Hendrick mention that revenue in the second half of the year should be more than the first half, due to current accounting methods (?). Obviously, when they made these comments a month ago, after they have seen some updated information for July and early August.
Thinking about the exercised price for the CYTXW of $1 for tomorrow, I wonder if the big boys are in manipulating game to make more money from here or to cover their short positions at a very low cost (for almost half of the shorted shares now and then another half at $2).
James Dean, I think Brozak was not present in the last CC, though he was represented. IMHO, Brozak has nothing new to added or he is not actively covering the stock presently till the right time comes. Even Wall Street Titan, an active supporter, has not updated his opinion through Seeking Alpha (of course, he has posted some comments here).
As I had indicated before, if the shorts have a price target, we might get nearer now than before, before some short covering (they are just die hard as the longs). We are marching toward $1, which could be an interesting turning point (just like $2 a while back). I think if there is a rebound from there, it could also be very interesting.
What is Shores doing to justify $300,000 in pay?
New CFO is paid much less than Saad. With so little revenue, why is Shores here?
Ken is doing his job re new Japanese regs. Arm is responsible for the Welsh manufacturing (please Google Deeside, Wales and you can find more information re CYTX Europe with 30 employees and phasing out Swiss office, etc).
James Dean, IMHO Saad was fired.
In the beginning, I was impressed by his sting at UBS and "connection" to Wall Street. He brought in some key BoD members (I think) and maybe some investors like DoV. In other words, he can "market" the company. When you sit back and really listen to what he talked (please listen to his last two NYC company presentations for examples)-he lacked details. He had been blurred. I think this is how he and Calhoun ran CYTX. I think Hedrick and his new team (including Ken) are more down to earth and maybe more solid from here on.
James Dean, I do not think Saad had done a good job at CYTX. I think both Calhoun and Saad were both burned out. Though most people here do not like Hedrick because the longs have lost their shirts, I think is doing a better job so far. He is more analytical and more careful in his approach.
James Dean, IMHO I think KT Lim has something to do the current PPS. Ever since he got his shares under the conditions of his ownership, the pattern of trading has changed. KT Lim may appear to lose money from $3 per share. Yet, he may be recovering his loss, by some kind of stock manipulation using some kind of technique using off shore accounts. He does not have to sell his shares (SEC reporting required), but he can "protect his investment" by some legal means (SEC reporting not required).
James Dean, as you said, Saad may have fired. RuiYi is probably open by some Asians (Koreans or Chinese) and Saad can work there without moving.
IMHO, the recent granted option to Hedrick and others maybe more informative. While Saad was not too sure re BARDA award (please refer to his NYC presentation), Hedrick and team made their marks in this BARDA award His option of 300,000 shares at 1.40 is much more than all the other executives and I think his is doing a good job (though many people here do no like Hedrick, because the PPS is down by $1 so far).
James Dean, re shorts/shorting
PPS has been down to a level beyond belief a month ago.
1. Biotechs particularly stem cells are mostly down lately. IMHO this is good indication of a bear trend. Many of these stocks have not gone up even when Dow is up and they are down, when Dow is down. Does it mean that when there is crash in DOW, most of these biotechs will be down sharply? Some people are thinking a big drop in DOW is coming. Is this in the mind set of the shorts?
2. I think the shorts may have a price target in mind, before covering. If not they will drive the PPS to the ground. Even if there is price target, it maybe ridiculously low. In the best scenario, if there is a price target (say around $1), the recovery due to short covering may come suddenly and sharply.
3. I think the CYTX PPS levels (or even market cap) may par relative to other stem cells, such as ATHX in this framework. If so, maybe CYTX is closer to some level of support.
IMHO the CYTX may try to something re the current PPS, but what can they really do, when a secondary is possible (and the shorts know this well).
James Dean, I also believe there is an organized group or even groups manipulating this stock. IMHO, this maybe a good reason that Hedrick had mentioned the need of institutional investors to reverse the trend. However, shorts are no blind shorts, because they usually do good research before launching such an enduring attack. They may not believe in the basic technology that stem cells are actually present in adipose derived sources (actually this belief is wrong). They may think celution system is nothing more than a centrifuge (maybe so with the basic spinning mechanism to separate therapeutic cells from debris; but celution system is more complicated than that). They may think each celution system is too expensive (indeed this is true with the earlier versions, but CYTX 's new celution system is now small and it will be virtually given away, just like HP's printers and CYTX will make money by selling "ink"). They may complain that all CYTX's clinicals are small and lack of peer review (true, so far and CYTX is now doing something differently under Hedrick).
Our exchanges of the past few postings
1. BARDA and the PPS. PPS dropped after the ATHENA news (actually, the news does not report a disaster, but the sellers took the excuse to sell for no good reasons) and then recovered somewhat in anticipation of BARDA. The CC was good IMO. There was no selloff, till after BARDA (maybe selling on news, even if it is good news).
2. BARDA in the next 2 years for $21 million. Small amount, but every dime helps. The money to IDE (or IND for a drug) is really easy money, because most works have been done (as in other celution IDEs leading to ATHENA and others)/or almost done, including the certification of a smaller celution system (manufacturing site in Wales). The clinicals that follow is really another phase 1-2. Not big deal: in the eyes of Wall Street, the thermal burn study and the ongoing ATHENA indicate that CYTX is really an early clinical trial company in the US. However, unlike ATHENA, the thermal burn T/E will lead a much, much quicker path to market approval with most expenses paid (IMO, people have ignored this fact).
3. Outside the US, most markets (with less gov regs), the celution system can be marketed. Japan will lead the way. Hedrick is optimistic with Japan and Ken, the reg man, confirms this optimism. After all, 10 years of presence in Japan may pay off. As you has indicated FAS was not sure with BARDA would lift the PPS, but if the revenue would pick up with 70% coming in from Japan, the PPS may rise (how about by first Q, 2015). China is a wild card-registration (may take time for approval)should be OK, but sales maybe unpredictable.
Mr Hedge, you know more than anyone here.
IMO, the reasons are
1. CYTX is short of cash and the company may need to raise more cash, including ATM (is Roth selling shares even at this low PPS?).
2. No major "positive" news in the near term, after BARDA.
3. Many biotechs are out of favor, particularly stem cells (just look at ATHX).
Maybe there is some good news coming between now and the beginning of next year:
1. Restart ATHENA, in another month or so.
2. Partnership for sales in EU.
3. Sales partnership in Japan.
4. Registration filing in China.
5. Nov new regs in Japan.
6. Insider buying. The reason for no current buying may have to do with some pending news or other reasons (otherwise, the insiders should buy now).
7. News of some seeding clinicals from Japan and Spain.
Mr Hedge, you know CYTX better than anyone here. CYTX used to have annual revenue exceeding $10 million, with about 70-75% of the revenue coming from Japan. The Japanese revenue has been consistent for some time. But then, the money flow had virtually dried up in the past 12 months or so. Hedrick reviews the reasons in the last conference call (Calhoun and Saad had not been straight forward.) IMO, the Japanese money flow should resume, particularly with the arrival of the new regs. I think CYTX should partner the sales in Japan, leaving the Tokyo office in general coordination of seeding clinical trials and interaction with the Japanese FDA. Just like in San Diego, CYTX-Japan can reduce overhead cost by renting smaller and cheaper office space.
Rickey and Hedrick represent a new page for the company. Looks like Calhoun and Saad were let go.
The San Diego office houses only a smaller management, doing mostly planning and administration, with actual works done outside (sales likely through partners; clinicals by CRO, manufacturing of smaller celution system systems costing up to several thousands and not hundred of thousands-in Wales, etc). I think company intends to make money through the consumables (as HP making money through ink and not through printers). Currently the market is selling celution and consumables to researchers (paid by reaserch grants). When the Japanese market open up later on this year, the sales in Japan should increase significantly. Then there is China. Malaysia and Singapore and Australia are smaller.EU market should also come in, when celution system costs much less than it was. Okyrna should also be important.
Japan and San Diego should conduct a lot of seeding clinical trials without spending big money, such as the NIH heart studies, sport medicine study in Spain, and others in France and Japan.
1. CYTXer used to be very positive, but now very negative for some reasons.
2. Cytx has no choice but to continue Athena, because of very strong reaction after news. Maybe Cytx can sell the indication rather than partnership if cost is a problem. However, if income from Japan and China can help, then company should be able to complete Athena.
James Dean and other risk takers, The PPS is indeed disappointing. Actually, I think Hedrick and Rickey are trying to be helpful in many ways different from Calhoun and Saad. But, the bear raid has been fearful. Usually CYTX drops after Quarterly Conference Calls. But, the drop has been piled upon the Athena news and the BARDA release (sells on news and buys on rumors).
Traditionally, buy on such a drop may reap good profit. But, most longs may not have enough gun power to benefit from the current on-slaughter. Too bad.
James Dean, IMO Sentiments on Wall Street change all the time. I personally think Hedrick is doing a good job. In the past several weeks, his words have been more reliable than what Calhoun and Saad had said.