Do you even know when earnings are?! I'll give you a hint, its not this month
Stock dropped 50% after last call, if that's all you got, good luck
I can see your new here so I'll humor you....
Friend of mine tried to sell me on LOCO, I dug into the IPO filing, negative store growth from 2010-2012, at $40 pps each franchise was valued north of 1.5 mm. Media spun a $15 IPO with terrible financials as a 'healthy chipotle'. But analysts just don't see it (2.5 PEG). Then I venture into this board and the sheep have ate it up, no intelligent response, just shorts were diapers and look what CMG is trading at! Really I'm here for three reasons 1) its definetly entertaining 2) I'm seeking to find just one intelligent long... 3) its incredibly reckless to pump this as a healthy CMG when, on a per ounce basis, the burritos are worse for you, many long pumpers admittedly have never hadthe food, and CMG is actually seeing decent growth, LOCO is not. I'm attempting to bring balance to the discussion.
But since were asking questions, what attracts you to a fast food name trading at 30+ FORWARD earnings with anemic growth. What value do you see now that LOCO is trading over 50% higher than its IPO price. Most importantly how the hell do you think a stock can rally nearly 50%, from 20 to 29 in one month?
What did you get out from posting 'high 20s by the end of the month bro', are you just a cheerleader or do you actually have something worth while to say?
Been saying since 40, not long not short, but its still overvalued, I'm truly happy for you, you got a few points back, its been a bloodbath....
yet they are sitting on the biggest oil reserves in the world...... 20% of the world's oil is in Saudi Arabia and it's 'easy' oil, 72 years of proven reserves at their current output... Yeah, you may be right, but it we won't see it in our lifetimes...
former LPI long, but I'm sitting on the sidelines for any high cost oil until the macro changes, I think the supply picture has fundamentally changed, on top of that, outside the US, global demand is pathetic as several regions are on the brink of recession
Anyone think it a bit suspicious that the lead underwriters (Baird and Jefferies) upgrade their client's (Timaran Capital) stock 2 weeks before lockup expires?
Text book IPO mechanics, sell a small float (7 mm shares) creating the illusion of demand via limited supply, pump stock prior to lockup expiration so Timaran can dump it's 22 mm shares at a decent price. Client is happy, word spreads, investment bankers stay in business.
Perhaps it's just coincidence, but I would be buying into to these upgrades a little more if they weren't the lead underwriters for petes sake and we weren't 2 weeks from lockup when the float essentially doubles.
1) I never said CMG was healthy.... I think we can all agree a 1000 calorie burrito is not healthy for you as it represents half of your daily caloric intake in a single serving (however, the media has spun LOCO as the next 'healthy chipotle' and this board and many others have ate it up).... Bobbi is trying to paint a picture that 1000 calorie burritos are healthy....
2) My QSR comments vs. Fast Casual stem from bobbi's note on the trend of Fast Casual companies being bought up by larger players (chipotle being bought and then sold by MCD, Qdoba being bought by jack in the box, and YUM buying a vietemese and chinese fast casual restaurants), but given LOCO has a dollar menu ("snack menu"), a drive through, and much lower ARPU (6% profit margins) than other fast casual players, it's hard to make the argument LOCO is fast casual. Another example is CMG's organic ingredients which can not be said for LOCO (the only selling point LOCO makes towards it's chicken is "it's fresh" but the same could be said for KFC).
3) If LOCO's burritos have similar nutritional values as CMG, but the burritos are significantly smaller, one can come to the conclusion, on a per ounce basis, LOCO is much worse for you than CMG. As far as fast food, cheap price, low quality etc. etc., do your self a favor and google image search "pollo loco store", these are fast food restaurants! Drive through, dollar menu, $5 meal deals...
Comparisons to CMG are nonsensical, and people who try to convince other's are being very reckless and I would recommend eating at one and making up your own mind. Not long, not short, but the IPO bubble appears to have burst, and I would never pay 30+ FORWARD earnings for a QSR. five year estimated PEG at 2.55 is on par with several high growth tech/social companies, yet we have not growth at LOCO, buyer beware...
just because a restaurant as 6 items under 500 calories does not make it healthy, what is wrong with you LOCO sheep?
they have more items over 1000 calories than they do under 500. Their chicken tostada "salad" has a whopping 1300 calories and 90 grams of fat.
Qdoba is a Colorado startup just like CMG, bought out by a larger QSR player. The problem.... Qdoba and Chipotle are fast casual, LOCO is by all means fast food... Huge difference, LOCO has a drive through dollar menu and all. Chipotle and Qdoba have premium food at a reasonable price, LOCO has low quality food at a cheap price, really you are comparing a McDonalds burger to a Five Guys burger when you put LOCO in the same sentence as CMG and Qdoba... there is NO comparison...
Have you been to a LOCO? Or have you just sipped the cool aid?
what you can also gauge is the valuation of the company....
33 trailing earnings, 31 forward earnings, 2.55 PEG, 6% profit margin (one of the worst in the industry), company store count shrank from 2010-2012 (per IPO as the 'eastern expansion failed') and grew by only 7 stores in 2013 (representing less than 2% sq ft growth), the stock is STILL 40% higher than the upper end of the IPO price range ($15), a price set by investment bankers after all.
Then on 1/21/15, lockup expires, and the 80% of the float held by private equity (22mm shares held by Trimaran Capital alone, more 3X the shares sold in IPO) is available to be sold, they likely don't sell all, but most likely sell some to realize some of the great gain they've had.
A MoMo day trading friend of mine tried to sell me on LOCO when it was near $40 shortly after the IPO, telling me about the next chipotle. I'm a fundamental guy, and was shocked at the valuation and advised him to avoid, he's hard headed and didn't heed the advise. But even at half price, I still see this fast food chain as overvalued.
It's clearly a bubble, nearly tripling after the IPO in a very short time and the bubble has burst. You may be right on and be catching the bottom, but I try to avoid catching a falling knife.
"Calling bottoms is hazardous to your wealth"
on what grounds? At 33 trailing PE it's awfully expensive for a QSR, 31 Forward PE is very expensive for a QSR. PEG of 2.5 for a fast food restaurant? Your paying a tech premium for a fast food name!
We are still 40% higher today than the IPO price ($15), a price set by very intelligent people. Wall Street ran with this one and painted a picture of a 'healthy Chipotle' with uber growth. But the analysts just don't see it with the average estimate of only 66 cents next year.
By every metric (P/S, P/E, P/E/G, Low margins, etc. etc. etc.) this seems over valued at 21 let alone "upper 20", what am I missing?
being from CA you must realize this is fast food? Dollar menu, drive through, and food that is NOT healthy. Avocado burrito has nearly 1000 calories and over 50 grams of fat, practically on par with a giant chipotle burrito, and LOCO's is half the size. Wall street spewed this as a "healthy Chipotle" which couldn't be further from the truth, I feel bad for anyone who hasn't been to one in CA and was sold on the wallstreet BS.
Pretty easy to value a QSR, 30X earnings is still pricing in a great amount of growth. Eastern expansion has failed in the past, what makes you think it will work this time?
I'm not short, but certainly not Long, watching on the sidelines as the wall street bubble bursts.