Thu, Dec 25, 2014, 9:42 PM EST - U.S. Markets closed for Christmas

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Lululemon Athletica Inc. Message Board

frbohnen 89 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 18, 2014 12:32 PM Member since: Jul 17, 2007
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    Cover and Go Long

    by zachperonio Dec 17, 2014 10:50 AM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 18, 2014 12:32 PM Flag

    Caution: Calling Bottoms Is Hazardous To You Wealth

  • Reply to

    RDR 2

    by frbohnen Dec 17, 2014 2:29 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 17, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    continued **support** of it's 'Western franchise'

  • frbohnen by frbohnen Dec 17, 2014 2:29 PM Flag

    Rockstar teases of possible RDR 2. States they are very pleased to see continued over it's 'Western franchise' and to 'please stay tuned in 2015'

    It's vague, but singling out 'Western' leaves me optimistic for a possible RDR prequel, or a sequel sans John Marston

  • Reply to

    Jan $52.5 Puts

    by coolhanluc18 Dec 16, 2014 11:44 AM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 16, 2014 11:29 PM Flag

    @klein

    well if we are going to be nitpicky you are technically right, his downside is capped at a paltry 2500% (roughly). His max profit is 4%. Great risk return ratio....

    If you call this 'conservative' too, I have a bridge to sell you.

    Selling options are far more riskier than buying options as your risk is not defined. Albeit the odds are with the options writers as the vast majority of options expire worthless and I've said luc is most likely going to have a well played position. Writing options works out far more often than not, but this fact by no means indicates it is a 'conservative' position. In fact it's consider they riskiest option play as stocks and markets decline far faster than they advance.

    In fact the term "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller" originates from this type of trade and this type of risk return profile is considered a Taleb distribution.

    Soliciting this advise as conservative on a board with many new investors is reckless.

  • Reply to

    Jan $52.5 Puts

    by coolhanluc18 Dec 16, 2014 11:44 AM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 16, 2014 2:55 PM Flag

    google victor niederhoffer if you think selling puts is 'conservative', many consider it the riskiest way to play options

  • Reply to

    Jan $52.5 Puts

    by coolhanluc18 Dec 16, 2014 11:44 AM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 16, 2014 2:47 PM Flag

    right, so now you are betting a base will form, when technically we are seeing a breakout (golden cross, very bullish), and fundamentally we have seen declining YoY profitability for the past 3 quarters. From a macro perspective the S&P had it's worst week in 3 years last week and a global macro sell off unquestionably sees a decline in all stocks.

    Again, I've said you could more than likely be right, but this is by far not a 'conservative' strategy as is evident in your 48% CAGR number. I can list a dozen scenarios in which you leave money on the table

  • Reply to

    Jan $52.5 Puts

    by coolhanluc18 Dec 16, 2014 11:44 AM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 16, 2014 2:03 PM Flag

    yet the company can't get product from the west coast because of port delay's disclosed via earnings call, 4 days later California was hit with a hurricane which I doubt makes the port situation any better. I think you are right, but my point is you never know, and when you buy options you are betting you do know.

    I hope your right, I bet you will be right, but I can't buy your argument that selling premium is conservative. It's more conservative than buying premium, but it is still very risky.

    Yes, volatility is very high hence the premiums are very high, yet you are betting it will remain in a 5 point window.....

  • Reply to

    New Buyout rumor***EA to buy ZNGA*****

    by hardsong Dec 9, 2014 12:20 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 16, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    why would EA buy garbage?

  • Reply to

    Jan $52.5 Puts

    by coolhanluc18 Dec 16, 2014 11:44 AM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 16, 2014 1:07 PM Flag

    If you have a 55% chance they expire worthless, "the odds" are still in your favor, but your still flipping a slightly irregular coin

  • Reply to

    Jan $52.5 Puts

    by coolhanluc18 Dec 16, 2014 11:44 AM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 16, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    I just expressed two scenarios were you leave a tremendous amount of money on the table.

    "pretty conservative way to buy shares" is were I'm getting hung up...

    a 48% annualized return is by no means conservative and it does sound like your being greedy.

    the only way you don't leave money on the table is if the stock stays between 50-55, pretty narrow range for a stock with implied volatility at 41, it's clearly a gamble. A conservative way to buy shares is to press the buy button and have a tight stop loss on, not writing options.

    My hang up is you are soliciting a method as "safe" and "conservative" while I would contend that it is anything but.

  • Reply to

    Jan $52.5 Puts

    by coolhanluc18 Dec 16, 2014 11:44 AM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 16, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    for instance, if LULU preannounces worse than expected q4fy14 results (like they did Jan 13, 2014), the stock could fall 10 points easily (like it did Jan 13, 2014)

  • Reply to

    Jan $52.5 Puts

    by coolhanluc18 Dec 16, 2014 11:44 AM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 16, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    unless the stock bounces up to 65 by january....

    You've capped your gain at 4% (average $2 at a roughly $50 base), and you have unlimited downside risk. The odds are with you and these expire worthless, but I have never been a fan of writing options

  • frbohnen frbohnen Dec 16, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    UA operating income TTM = 305MM

    LULU operating income TTM = 373MM

    UA market cap = 15 BB

    LULU market cap = 7.5 BB

    So let me get this straight vulture, LULU is the over valued? Yet LULU made 20% than UA in the past year, yet UA trades at nearly twice the market cap?

    Please elaborate....

  • Reply to

    Ascending Pennant

    by swardboy Dec 5, 2014 10:45 AM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 15, 2014 1:42 PM Flag

    fundamentally sward, what do you say about it's 24 trailing PE, and it's declining profitability/sales since 2012?

  • Reply to

    NPD report for November . . .

    by speculawyer9 Dec 11, 2014 7:35 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 12, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    spec, once again, great work

    thank you

  • Reply to

    NPD report for November . . .

    by speculawyer9 Dec 11, 2014 7:35 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 12, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    that's insane, this is an old gen game folks!

    This is even a surprise to me. But the polished look, first person mode, peote, etc. etc. make the experience completely different on next gen.

    Well done Zelnick

  • Reply to

    Volume and Price Action?

    by chase07470 Dec 11, 2014 3:29 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 12, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    Troll absolutely!

    Troll (n) - A person who sows discord on the Internet by starting arguments by posting inflamatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community.

    You see Troll, I do have a point, being up over 40% off the lows is indicative of a trend reversal fool. Being soundly above the 200/50 dma is technically sound. Seeing a golden cross as we are right now is very bullish.

    You on the other hand lack any argument whatsoever fool. When did I say I bought at the bottom? I simply state the past six month trend is been positive. You attacked me troll, you assumed I bought at the bottom and your jealous tone is evident in your absolutely irrelevant Dec 2013 comments. You got hosed it's apparent.

    Please troll elsewhere

  • Reply to

    Volume and Price Action?

    by chase07470 Dec 11, 2014 3:29 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 12, 2014 9:15 AM Flag

    @dbr

    LOL, what a silly little troll you are....

    Ummmm, no. Click 6 month chart, up 37%. If I said 52 week low it would have been up OVER 40%

    By the way what's your point? Have you been short since Dec? Long since Dec? I'm not underwater, are you?

  • Reply to

    Volume and Price Action?

    by chase07470 Dec 11, 2014 3:29 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 11, 2014 9:35 PM Flag

    the weak guidance was not due to performance, it's due to port delay's and the lower Canadian dollar. Thus I think the street gave LULU a pass on guidance.

    It looks as if store traffic has peaked, but with LULU doing over $2,500 per foot annually it's one of the best in retail, and on top of that, growth in online i.e. direct to consumer is far outpacing any drop in sss.

    The exciting part is the topline growth. LULU is opening stores left and right and thus far has increased it's total square feet by 17% this year with store growth forecasted for years to come.

    Also, one may give LULU a pass on income if we look at the company last year. It was a mid cap company with a small cap budget. The decline in profitbility is directly correlated with new management investing in IT and infrastructure, which ideal will help prevent another 'see-through' scandal, help with it's inventory issues all around, facilitate online sales, etc. etc. etc. mgmt has repeatedly called this year an 'investment year' so really, a decline in profitability makes sense. Next year will be the key year to see if these 'investments' paid off.

  • Reply to

    Volume and Price Action?

    by chase07470 Dec 11, 2014 3:29 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Dec 11, 2014 5:01 PM Flag

    Agreed,

    I find it hilarious when people talk about the brand being tarnished by Chip Wilson. I want to know how many LULU shopper's even know who Chip WIlson is, and I want to know how many watch Bloomberg. Target research released a study aprox 6 months ago (sorry not sure on the date, just remember the piece because it reinforced my conviction) stating that the brand loyalty at LULU was extremely high, more so than Nike.

LULU
54.40-0.16(-0.29%)Dec 24 1:00 PMEST

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.
Yahoo! Inc.
NASDAQWed, Dec 24, 2014 1:00 PM EST