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Activision Blizzard, Inc. Message Board

frbohnen 117 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 19, 2014 1:35 AM Member since: Jul 17, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Fly-on-the-wall

    by sheepherder1976 Sep 18, 2014 4:36 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Sep 19, 2014 1:35 AM Flag

    the desperation is pathetic.

    the fool can't find anything else wrong with the company so he is subduing to his alamo.... death by dilution. TTWO must fail because it has restricted stock options, it must I'm telling you, it must, it must, it must.....

    I'm done with this clown

  • Reply to

    Dovish Fed = higher gold prices

    by septcalls06 Sep 17, 2014 2:41 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Sep 17, 2014 3:59 PM Flag

    didn't the cpi contract last month?

    inflation is nowhere to be found

  • frbohnen frbohnen Sep 17, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    apparently they are trying to bring it to mobile however

  • frbohnen frbohnen Sep 17, 2014 2:29 PM Flag

    @mngt

    I'd rather see institutional buying rather than short covering. Is this how bad it's got for LULU as we can claim victory when shorts throw in the towel?

    guidance of SSS increasing on a QoQ basis was good.

    my point is I'm skeptical of a V-shaped recovery. mgmt guidance was for gross margins to hit mid 50s by Q12016, we are pretty far away from this

    We are still dealing with product that was slated prior to Potvedin and Posseley even arriving.

    factoring in MRQ results we have a TTM PE of over 25, pretty expensive for a stock that is showing declining profitability. I think we're in a range until next earnings, this Q gave no really reason to be overly bullish.

    Perhaps reason was given to cover shorts (13% topline growth), but that's about it

  • Reply to

    Definite delay in October-No doubt

    by homersby Jul 4, 2014 8:46 AM
    frbohnen frbohnen Sep 17, 2014 2:19 PM Flag

    ahhh, did i hurt poor little sheepie's feelings

  • Reply to

    Accouting Question

    by sheepherder1976 Sep 15, 2014 3:54 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Sep 17, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    'when the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser'
    -socrates

  • Reply to

    Accouting Question

    by sheepherder1976 Sep 15, 2014 3:54 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Sep 17, 2014 1:33 PM Flag

    @sheep

    ROFL, literally, out loud, kicking and screaming, I'm making stuff up....

    I am referring to the 'Equity Plan Share Request' that you have been quoting for a few weeks, I just added some more details you omit.

    If grants to ZM are included, 84% of shares are granted to talent (slide 8)

    69% of grants are performance based (slide 9)

    shares available to grant were reduced by 4,319,829 shares, resulting in 836,382 shares available to grant as of June 30, 2014 (slide 11)

    FY2014 shares granted 8,035,000 shares vested 3,863,000 (slide 11)

    FY2013 shares granted 4,581,000 shares vested 1,867,000 (slide 11)

    Finally, TTWO is struggling? 5 year TSR vs. Peers, TTWO 162.6% TTWO, 103.9% ATVI, 59.5% EA (slide 3)

  • Reply to

    Accouting Question

    by sheepherder1976 Sep 15, 2014 3:54 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Sep 17, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    @sheep,

    your not sure, yet you've been running this 'dilution scare' since september 2nd when the slides were released?

    if your not sure than why do you have such strong feelings about imminent future dilution?

    you may not be short, but your sentiment has certainly changed post the Icahn sale (mind you the 52 week low). Your post used to be blindly bullish even in the advent of the convertible debt deal.

    Now I can't find a post you make that has a bullish subtlety to it. Restricted stock options were present before the Icahn deal, I'm just wondering what has changed?

  • Reply to

    Accouting Question

    by sheepherder1976 Sep 15, 2014 3:54 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Sep 17, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    The fact that you think RESTRICTED stock options are uniquely TTWO is the funny thing. I'd like to know a company that doesn't have similar programs to discourage turnover.

  • Reply to

    Accouting Question

    by sheepherder1976 Sep 15, 2014 3:54 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Sep 16, 2014 9:41 PM Flag

    The stock isn't just handed over, it's performance based and I doubt 100% shares granted have ever been vested in TTWO, but I could be wrong.

    Last year, for example, the company granted over 8 mm shares yet less than 4 mm were vested (keep in mind performance based in a GTA year, can't imagine the performance getting any better than that)

    The year before, company granted 4.6 million, yet only 1.8 were vested or 40%.

    Sheep, this again is a non-issue. Let's say TTWO vests 40% of 5 mm share, or 2 mm, at 23 bucks a pop, you are looking at 46 mm compensation going primarily to developers (as stated in your often quoted 'Equity Plan Share Request', for mgmts stated goal of talent retention.

    Some things you omit from your 'dilution panic' is that the fully diluted count shrunk by 4.2 mm in FY14 due to buybacks, and shares available for grant was reduced by over 4.3 mm at the conclusion of FY14. Seems to me the 5 mm is more or less a roll over of the FY14 plan.

    But most important, this form of compensation was going on when you were the long and strong sheep. Why the change of heart now that your the short and limp sheep?

  • Reply to

    Accouting Question

    by sheepherder1976 Sep 15, 2014 3:54 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Sep 16, 2014 9:10 PM Flag

    @sheep

    When was the last year all of the shares allotted to the equity plan were issued?

  • frbohnen frbohnen Sep 16, 2014 6:23 PM Flag

    @paul

    you silly little troll,

    let's take this one step at a time, as it is clearly hard for you to grasp

    1) the title of this post is "LULU and how it could be affected by hedge fund investments." In it you propose that CALpers doing away with hedge funds is somehow going to fuel short covering and that LULU had a 'fundamental' knock out quarter

    2) i propose that it is silly to think one-one thousandth of all hedge fund capital will really be relevant to a LULU position, and frankly the quarter was pretty abysmal fundamentally, with SSS falling 5%, profitability falling 60% and I asked you to clarify your position. I disclose I am long, but try to be OBJECTIVE about my position and state some of the near term troubles LULU faces

    3) you insult me by INSISTING that I MUST read BOOKS (ROFL) and wrongly proposed that hedge fund capital was on the decline, and I was short.

    you really haven't made any points and have subdued to insults other than your final posts, "IVIVVA and men's growth is good" (which kind of makes you sound like a caveman) and once again omit any FUNDAMENTAL statistic.

    I hope that's not the only reason as to why you are 'aggressively long' but at this point I think it's useless trying to get anything out of you

  • frbohnen frbohnen Sep 16, 2014 5:20 PM Flag

    I'll set on my shares for years while your deep out of the money calls are likely going to expire worthless.

    good day paul

  • frbohnen frbohnen Sep 16, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    @paul

    except everything that spews from your mouth is utterly false.....

    "the trend away from hedge funds" hilarious, hedge fund capital is actually accelerating this year and the pensions make no difference. Facts Paul, facts, I suggest you skip the books and pick up a fact

  • frbohnen frbohnen Sep 16, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    Peter Lynch once said that stocks don't bounce off a bottom, they get dragged along it.

    new designs, men's were, and ivivva all have lower margins than the core leggings, so even if LULU hits a homerun with these initiatives profitability falls on a sales basis as these products simply aren't as profitable as $100 black yoga pants. I think the street is highly skeptical gross margins rising to the mid 50s by 2016 as guided by mgmt.

    same store sales were down 5% this quarter. Earnings were down 60% YoY. Fundamentally it's hard to claim victory THIS quarter, but I think what got the street excited was guidance for positive comps next quarter and q4. In the conference call, mgmt dropped 2016 countless times, and we are currently in a 'transition period'

    What made me happy was the 13% topline growth.

    My point was calpers is a HUGE retirement fund that funds the state of california yet it only represents one-one thousandth of all hedge fund capital. The lion's share of hedge fund capital does not belong to retirement accounts but rather to billionaires and other ultra high net worth individuals. Even if all pensions abstained from hedge funds I would say the impact would be minimal.

  • frbohnen frbohnen Sep 16, 2014 4:12 PM Flag

    reading comprehension must not be your strong suit.... I'M LONG! I would welcome your forecast.

    I was simply asking what you saw in the 'fundamentals' (your words not mine) indicate to you a 'turn last earnings' and 'a very bullish story here' (again all YOUR WORDS)

    and while your at it, can you please explain to me how the calpers capital, which represents ONLY 0.14 percent of all hedge fund capital is going to materially affect the industry.

    Like I said, take the tin foil hat off of your head, and drop the conspiracy theories.

  • frbohnen frbohnen Sep 16, 2014 2:08 PM Flag

    enlighten me oh wise one

    elaborate on this statement "LULU made a turn last earnings, fundamentally..... it makes for a very bullish story here."

    and while your at it, can you please help me understand how the less than 2 tenths of one percent of all hedge fund capital i.e. the 4 billion in CALpers, is going to meaningfully affect the hedge fund industry.

    please, I need your help understanding 'method in the stock market'

  • Reply to

    Ginger beer sales up 34% in 2Q

    by investorzee Aug 13, 2014 9:27 AM
    frbohnen frbohnen Sep 16, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    spending up to 1.5 mm the company does not have.

    this would be great news if the company had the cash or made a profit.

    Wait for the secondary, or convertible offering, then buy more

  • frbohnen frbohnen Sep 16, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    Take off the tin foil hat speculator! 'i don't buy that bs story on manipulation' yet you just laid out an incredible conspiracy theory.

    turning point last earings? How can you call earnings falling from 32 cents per share to 13 cents per share YoY a turning point? Earnings fell 60% from Q2FY13. TTM PE of 25 is EXTREMELY expensive for a company showing a 60% decline in earnings YoY

    I'm long LULU, but it's more of a long term vision, and I think what buoyed the stock was guidance for slightly positive comps for q3 and q4, or the 13% topline growth, it's certainly not 'fundamentally' cheap as a result of 'last earnings' and I think people are speculating on the coming quarters

  • Reply to

    low volume on decline

    by mngtscrwdup Sep 15, 2014 1:57 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Sep 15, 2014 4:20 PM Flag

    hard to call today's volume 'low'

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