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Linn Co, LLC Message Board

fredrickson01 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 10, 2016 10:37 AM Member since: Jul 16, 2003
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  • fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Jun 10, 2016 10:37 AM Flag

    I put my $ where my mouth is and bought another 500 units at $29.79....11% yield...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Jun 10, 2016 10:09 AM Flag

    Thanks,
    My take is much the same. I hold about 4K shares so I'm biased but looking at the IQ2016 financials and the REAL growth strategy they are following as reiterated in the Conf Call, I think this might be the best yielding, good growth play I'm aware of...period. Retail gasoline business is very highly fragmented and SUN has found that buying, building, consolidating, branding, rebranding, adding services & food, etc., can build a strong, more effective and more efficient business...and it all seems to be working well. This is probably a good place to add more shares to lock in 11% yield....

  • fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Jun 10, 2016 9:13 AM Flag

    Wallstpirate -- What do you think of the Jefferies analysis?

  • fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Jun 10, 2016 8:19 AM Flag

    Actually, on April 25th, distribution was increased 2% to $.8173 X 4 = $3.2692 annualized.

  • Reply to

    Downgrade & Conference Call.

    by dividendguy Jun 9, 2016 3:43 PM
    fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Jun 9, 2016 5:28 PM Flag

    Just listened to the CC. Sounds like a hell of a good company, run by real professionals, dedicated to sustaining reasonable growth that will be accretive to earnings and distributable cash flow with a continued commitment to growing distributions and maintaining a minimum of a 1.1x coverage ratio. Sounded like IQ2016 volume-weighted margins on all gallons of 14.7 cents were helped a bit by their Supply & Trading group and it was mentioned that it might not be sustainable...but then again it was said that the Supply & Trading group is very talented...Several times it was mentioned that SUN feels it is in a normalized area for margins. I also heard some optimism on improvements in oil prices going forward. Net Net, I didn't hear anything that made me worry about the distribution. I don't think they increased the distribution 2% with the idea that they'd have to back down later in the year.

  • Reply to

    1 Analyst = 10% Down??

    by caplan9 Jun 8, 2016 12:33 PM
    fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Jun 8, 2016 12:50 PM Flag

    I strongly suspect that the Jeffries analyst has never run a business, never had to manage a payroll, never developed a strategic plan, never been on a board of directors or a management team....so he knows more about the financial future of SUN than its seasoned management???Give me a break.

  • Reply to

    was looking so good all day

    by airlease2000 Jan 29, 2016 5:54 PM
    fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Jan 29, 2016 10:53 PM Flag

    Be careful. This is either the buy of a lifetime at upper $29-30 range, or the market is pricing in the risk of a 30% cut in the distribution. Even if that were to happen, a 30% cut would take it to $about $2,95, and that would still be a great yield of 10% at a price of $29.50...and if distribution were trimmed by 30%, you know it would be rock solid secure.
    I'm not saying at all that I personally think the distribution might be cut, just that the market appears to be pricing in some risk of a trim in distribution. And heaven knows, the market can be and often is very, very wrong at times
    I bailed a few thousand shares at $25.50 on the way down and took a beating, but am getting back in here for the distribution and the facts that management (1) is working to trim cap ex, (2) is steering away from the need for another equity offering, (3) seems committed to complete the deal with Williams, (4) committed to preserving ETPs strong bond ratings, and (5) nat gas volumes will only grow for the next several years at the expense of coal.
    Yes, I'm a little nervous. But if I had huge kahunas, I'd put every cent I have into ETP at the current price...But I don't. Once bitten, twice shy.

  • Reply to

    cramer says do not worry..

    by it_is_lou Dec 20, 2015 9:01 AM
    fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Dec 20, 2015 10:52 AM Flag

    Your points are very well taken. I "rationalized" my long positions on banks when they were falling apart several years ago and lost a TON. Then did the same think on Linn energy not too long ago...and lost a lot. And I've taken a beating on ETP this year by trusting the talking heads that have said that it's a toll road model with virtually no exposure to commodity prices. The bit about Apple was just to point out that ETP's quick ratio is in the same range a Apple's...That's good, but that's all that was intended. I don't compare the two firms otherwise.
    Good luck.

  • Reply to

    cramer says do not worry..

    by it_is_lou Dec 20, 2015 9:01 AM
    fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Dec 20, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    If you haven't done so, I suggest you read ETP's Dec. 7th presentation at the Wells Fargo meeting. It's on ETP web site. I thought Cramer's takedown of Valuentum's piece was very thoroughly researchrd and compelling. One needs to be caitious with a yield over 14%, but the redemption-driven selling as mutual fubda and hedge funds with significant energy holdings (especially upstream and midstream companies) has been indescriminate -- everything in the portfolios has been sold to meet redemptions...everything...the good, the bad, and the ugly. I've read all I can on ETP and can't find any warts. Invest grade bonds, many buy ratings, 2015 and 2016 earnings estimates being encreased recently, well over 1.0 quick ratio (current assets to current liabilities)..not much different than Apple's!. I do believe 4 qtr might be tight due to the 5% exposure to commodity prices and probable reduced pipeline volumes due to crazy warm weather in the East, but ETP also makes money on storage and storage of NG is bursting at the seams. By the way, ETP is unlikely to issue any significance cant amount or stock (units) with yield this high. It has other options, including reducing capital spending slightly or shifting timing on a project or two.
    Just my take on it all. I'm long 4k units.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What say you now Cramer?

    by future_is_fiber Dec 4, 2015 2:34 PM
    fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Dec 13, 2015 10:49 PM Flag

    How does Cramer buy ETP and then publish his (compelling) rationale and at the same time let his company - The Street -- issue an article 2-3 times screaming the "Dump These 3 High-Yielding Energy Stocks Now".

  • Interest rate sensitive bonds and yield-oriented stocks (& MLPs) are, by definition, sensitive to changes to interest rates. The Federal Reserve is making very clear that it's going to raise interest rates this month in testimony before congress and in Yellen's speech the other day. Because of this, the interest rate on the 10-year treasuries is UP 6%!!! today, that's why all MLPs, ETP, AMLP, etc., are DOWN today. Knowing this doesn't help my portfolio on darned bit...(down over $20K in a week).
    If I had bigger kahunas, I'd double my position on ETP today while the yield is over 12%.
    ...but I don't.
    Best of luck to all.

  • Reply to

    Another Meltdown

    by sbrown101750 Nov 20, 2015 2:32 PM
    fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Nov 20, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    Pull up a 5-day chart of AMLP on YaHoo Finance and then select ETP for comparison. Note that ETP moves in tandem with AMLP. Then go to a 3-month view . You'll see the same thing. The two track very closely. If you believe that the ETP distribution is really safe with the very low oil prices and probably decline in volume going through the pipelines (the whole distribution system is backed up with the iver supply), then you should buy ETP for the nice yield at current prices.

  • fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Nov 20, 2015 12:29 PM Flag

    You should (1) call your broker, and (2) be much more concerned about the fact that you've lost over 6% in market price since you started asking about your distribution..

  • fredrickson01 by fredrickson01 Nov 12, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    Say what???
    Like rugby, it takes leather balls to play this game.
    For those who are so endowed, there seems to be a very good opportunity to pick up the best energy pipeline company in the US with at yield near 11% at today's price.
    Would be good to hear from the MB students of ETP about the risks associated with ETP....
    Best regards,
    Fredrickson01

  • Reply to

    Who do you trust, here?

    by sbrown101750 Nov 11, 2015 5:18 PM
    fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Nov 11, 2015 5:46 PM Flag

    Sbrown...
    That would be a pretty convoluted way for ETP to cut the distribution. Will be easier to just cut it. But just having raised it, I don't see this happening.
    The risk I see is that the fees for MMCF or gas and MBbls oil and NGLs could fall as upstream MLPs fold (thanks to Saudia Arabia), and as competitive transportation modes put pressure on pipeline volumes, e.g., trains. On the other hand, someone is going to be needing to transport gas and oil and NGLs, whether it's small MLPs or bigger, stronger energy players. What would reduce pipeline volumes nationwide is a rise in imports and a decline in domestic production.
    I've loaded up on ETP because I believe that through 2016-2017 the distribution is reasonably secure and all of the insane volatility in energy prices will, in the long run, abate and ETP will still be standing and sufficiently efficient to maintain the distribution. I don't expect any increases in the distribution for a year or more...but at 10.5%, it doesn't need to increase. Still, rising interest rates will put pressure on market price of ETP and that will be tough to swallow.

  • fredrickson01 by fredrickson01 Nov 11, 2015 3:27 PM Flag

    ETP is an incredible BUY at this point. 10.5% yield with $4.22 distribution.
    Key Issues....
    Will more or less oil and gas and NGL's flow through ETP pipelines next two years?
    Will revenue per MMCF and MBBL going through the pipes go up of down?
    Will rising interest rates shrink profits?
    Will sluggish US economy hurt volumes?
    Will battered upstream MLPs shrink volumes?
    Will healthier MLPs make up the difference it weak MLPs fold?
    Will OPEC manage to shrink production-give oil process some relief?

    Others??

  • Reply to

    Pretty Big Drop Again

    by bayousaint58 Nov 11, 2015 9:55 AM
    fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Nov 11, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    Thoughtful assessment. Thanks.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • fredrickson01 by fredrickson01 Oct 29, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    The new distribution of $.30 annualizes at $1.20. With current unit price of $5.80 or so, that's a annual yield of 20.7%. What appears to be reflected in the current price is a high probability that the $1.20 will be cut or eliminated. That's nuts. Even if there were a certainty that the $1.20 would be cut to, say, $.90, the current price would still provide a 15.5% yield.
    What am I missing?

  • Reply to

    Question for the board

    by brohicious Aug 11, 2015 9:07 PM
    fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Aug 11, 2015 10:36 PM Flag

    My view. Parts sources in China will be cheaper. So iPhones will have lower cost of goods and thus higher gross margins...will allow for more ads and promotions with the fatter margins.
    The reason for devaluing the yuan is to boost China competitiveness overseas...boost exports, increase economic growth, create more and better jobs...This may support higher iPhone sales. Less expensive Chinese phones already are MUCH LESS expensive than iPhones. So if devalued yuan makes iPhones a tad more expensive, no big deal...plus, a more robust Chinese economy (say, 6-7.5% GDP growth) would seem to help iPhone sales.
    The biggest issue, in my mind, is whether iPhones (and all of the apps and utilities and features they include)offer or can be perceived by customers to offer a lot more value than cheaper Chinese phones. That's as true in China as in the USA and elsewhere.

  • fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Aug 11, 2015 3:55 PM Flag

    Fact: Interest on debt is tax deductible and dividends are not.
    Nevertheless, I think Apply is totally nuts to be buying back stock to save the small dividend when it could be investing in buying other companies, in advertising and promotion to build business, and generally in pursuing strategies to build and strengthen the company and broaden its footprint in technology. To me, stock buybacks are saying to the world that the company has no clue what to do with its cash to strengthen the business.
    Just sayin'....

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