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Linn Co, LLC Message Board

fredrickson01 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 20, 2015 3:20 PM Member since: Jul 16, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Another Meltdown

    by sbrown101750 Nov 20, 2015 2:32 PM
    fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Nov 20, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    Pull up a 5-day chart of AMLP on YaHoo Finance and then select ETP for comparison. Note that ETP moves in tandem with AMLP. Then go to a 3-month view . You'll see the same thing. The two track very closely. If you believe that the ETP distribution is really safe with the very low oil prices and probably decline in volume going through the pipelines (the whole distribution system is backed up with the iver supply), then you should buy ETP for the nice yield at current prices.

  • fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Nov 20, 2015 12:29 PM Flag

    You should (1) call your broker, and (2) be much more concerned about the fact that you've lost over 6% in market price since you started asking about your distribution..

  • fredrickson01 by fredrickson01 Nov 12, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    Say what???
    Like rugby, it takes leather balls to play this game.
    For those who are so endowed, there seems to be a very good opportunity to pick up the best energy pipeline company in the US with at yield near 11% at today's price.
    Would be good to hear from the MB students of ETP about the risks associated with ETP....
    Best regards,

  • Reply to

    Who do you trust, here?

    by sbrown101750 Nov 11, 2015 5:18 PM
    fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Nov 11, 2015 5:46 PM Flag

    That would be a pretty convoluted way for ETP to cut the distribution. Will be easier to just cut it. But just having raised it, I don't see this happening.
    The risk I see is that the fees for MMCF or gas and MBbls oil and NGLs could fall as upstream MLPs fold (thanks to Saudia Arabia), and as competitive transportation modes put pressure on pipeline volumes, e.g., trains. On the other hand, someone is going to be needing to transport gas and oil and NGLs, whether it's small MLPs or bigger, stronger energy players. What would reduce pipeline volumes nationwide is a rise in imports and a decline in domestic production.
    I've loaded up on ETP because I believe that through 2016-2017 the distribution is reasonably secure and all of the insane volatility in energy prices will, in the long run, abate and ETP will still be standing and sufficiently efficient to maintain the distribution. I don't expect any increases in the distribution for a year or more...but at 10.5%, it doesn't need to increase. Still, rising interest rates will put pressure on market price of ETP and that will be tough to swallow.

  • fredrickson01 by fredrickson01 Nov 11, 2015 3:27 PM Flag

    ETP is an incredible BUY at this point. 10.5% yield with $4.22 distribution.
    Key Issues....
    Will more or less oil and gas and NGL's flow through ETP pipelines next two years?
    Will revenue per MMCF and MBBL going through the pipes go up of down?
    Will rising interest rates shrink profits?
    Will sluggish US economy hurt volumes?
    Will battered upstream MLPs shrink volumes?
    Will healthier MLPs make up the difference it weak MLPs fold?
    Will OPEC manage to shrink production-give oil process some relief?


  • Reply to

    Pretty Big Drop Again

    by bayousaint58 Nov 11, 2015 9:55 AM
    fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Nov 11, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    Thoughtful assessment. Thanks.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • fredrickson01 by fredrickson01 Oct 29, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    The new distribution of $.30 annualizes at $1.20. With current unit price of $5.80 or so, that's a annual yield of 20.7%. What appears to be reflected in the current price is a high probability that the $1.20 will be cut or eliminated. That's nuts. Even if there were a certainty that the $1.20 would be cut to, say, $.90, the current price would still provide a 15.5% yield.
    What am I missing?

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