The problem with Zogenix is that they will not manufacturer Zohydro. So right off the bat, lost revenue.
Second, as we can see from their other drug, they do not know how to market or sell drugs.
Third, competition is coming. And Teva FDA trial results are going to be released in February.
And most interesting, watch for a potential delay in the commercialization launch as Alkermes could be detrimental to Zogenix.
Zohydro ER will enter the market in 2014, manufactured by an Ireland-based company called Alkermes. Zogenix will handle sales and marketing, as well as the F.D.A.-mandated tracking of escalating abuse or misuse.
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Assuming that Zohydro can gain 2% market share of the 128 million hydrocodone prescriptions per year, this translates into annual Zohydro revenue of $496 million, according to Zogenix's projections. Zogenix would enter the largest prescription drug category in the United States, hydrocodone pain products. Over 150 million prescriptions were filled in this drug category in 2012, representing a $8 billion market opportunity.