From a technical perspective, XCO is ripping higher here with decent upside volume flows. This stock recently formed a double bottom chart pattern at $1.68 to $1.71. Following that bottom, shares of XCO have now started to spike higher off those support levels and it's quickly moving within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade above some key overhead resistance levels. Market players should now look for shares of XCO to break out above some key overhead resistance levels at $2.04 to around $2.25 with high volume.
Traders should now look for long-biased trades in XCO as long as it's trending above those double bottom support levels and then once it sustains a move or close above $2.04 to $2.25 with volume that hits near or above 3.75 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then XCO will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at its 50-day moving average of $2.56 to $2.65. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give XCO a chance to tag its next major overhead resistance levels at $2.90 to $3.25.
the street had an article out today stating that the following three companies could be likely takeover targets from a major....hk,kwk & xco....in the next six months...shocking considering thestreet never has anything good to say about xco.
I really feel that buying shares at the current price has to make sense. I was looking at SD today and I see that their volume was 52.5M shares and they're under $2.00. There just has to be a bottom to all this nonsense !
Saudi Arabian crude is the cheapest in the world to extract
because of its location near the surface of the desert and the
size of the fields, which allow economies of scale.
The operating cost (stripping out capital expenditure) of
extracting a barrel in Saudi Arabia has been estimated to be
around $1-$2, and the total cost (including capital expenditure)
$4-$6 a barrel.
Halcon Resources’ (HK) revenues for September 2014 increased 28% to $908.80 million from $710.20 million in September 2013, due primarily to increased production volumes associated with the development of properties in the Bakken/Three Forks and El Halcón areas.
Other energy upstream companies that have improved year-to-date revenues include Chesapeake Energy (CHK), which increased revenues by 23% in September 2014 over September 2013. Anadarko Petroleum’s (APC) revenues increased 16%, while Exco’s (XCO) revenues increased 17% during the same period. Some of these companies are components of the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE).
It would take a drop in crude prices to about $50 a barrel before U.S. oil production growth would be choked off.
That's the finding in a new report from Citigroup energy analysts. They said the two-year low in U.S. oil prices is not yet stalling growth of U.S. crude production, and even at $70 per barrel, the industry would continue to increase production.
It would have to fall to $50 or even lower, to fully halt shale production growth, the report said. At a level of $40 to $60 a barrel, production growth would fall toward zero as producers shut less productive wells. Citi said, in fact, this break-even price could get lower over time as producers focused on more intensive drilling in more productive areas.
I'm afraid that we will see a lot of tax loss selling in XCO soon. The shorts have the perfect storm all in their favor right now. If they push this much lower again I will be a buyer. I did pretty well on those shares I picked up in the low 2's. There's more than one way to skin a cat here.
Short Interest (Shares Short)
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio)
Short Percent of Float
Short Interest - Prior
Short % Increase / Decrease
I have followed locm for some time basically because they are in a similar business as inuv. I do not own any shares of locm but I do own shares of inuv. I really see this as a case of two companies headed in opposite directions. inuv is heading upwards and locm is declining. inuv insiders have bought over 100,000 shares already this month. locm insiders have bought a grand total of 22,000 shares ALL YEAR !!! Pretty easy deciding where to put your money between these two companies.
•Nearby operators like Contango (MCF) in south Texas have demonstrated rapid growth potential from oil in the Buda formation just below the Eagle Ford.
•Buda oil wells do not require expensive fracture stimulation completion techniques and cost only $2 million to $3.5 million to drill and complete.
•Many Buda wells drilled in the sweet spot have returned 100% of the capital invested in two to three months with $90 plus WTI oil prices.
Last year EXCO Resources (NYSE:XCO) made a transformative investment in south Texas when they acquired over 50,000 net acres in the Eagle Ford, plus the Farm-In rights to over 100,000 additional net acres, from Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) in the oil window of the Eagle Ford in Zavala and northern Dimmit counties. While the focus of the acquisition was on the Eagle Ford, the company mentioned that the acreage contained additional upside in the Austin Chalk, the Buda, and the Pearsall. Information on the potential in the Buda for EXCO Resources was described in this article. EXCO has recently filed several permits to test the Buda on their acreage near and adjacent to the Buda sweet spot exploited by Contango (NYSEMKT:MCF) and multiple other private operators.
On EXCO's 3Q conference call President and COO Harold Hickey said "As noted last quarter, we're starting our delineation of the Buda here in the fourth quarter of this year. We have seen strong results by other operators, very near where our acreage is and we've combined some of our Buda acreage with a partner that will drill a Buda well in November, as a part of a four to five well drilling plan. Also, we will be drilling an operated Buda well in additional prospective Buda acreage in the first quarter of next year."
While EXCO has not stated who their drilling partner will is, the most likely candidate is private E&P company CML Exploration. CML has drilled several very successful Buda oil wells in the sweet spot on the western edge of Contango's Booth-Tortuga lease. EXCO acquired many leases from Chesapeake adjacent and near the western side of Contango's leases and interspersed with CML exploration's leases. The most recent Buda oil well completed by CML is the Carol Pick well API #507-33150. The well cost approximately $3 million to drill and complete. The well started producing in August of 2014, and according to the Texas Railroad Commission, by the end of September the Carol Pick well had already produced 45,193 barrels of light sweet crude oil and 19,071 mcf of liquids rich natural gas.
“It’s possible that even with an OPEC production cut there won’t be an immediate increase in prices,” Evans said. “It sometimes takes time for the supertanker that is the oil market to switch direction.”
ETF investors also boosted bets on rising prices. The four biggest U.S. exchange-traded funds tied to oil had 70.5 million shares outstanding as of Nov. 12, the most since May 2013, according to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg.
The net-long position in WTI rose by 14,584 to 182,490 futures and options in the week ended Nov. 11, still down 49 percent from the peak in June. Long positions climbed 1 percent and short positions fell 15 percent.
For Brent crude, hedge funds and other money managers raised bullish bets for a third week to 66,636 contracts in the week ended Nov. 11, according to data from the ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Institutions and funds own 92% of the float and their not selling. I believe the shorts are pushing hard to get the retail investors to sell in order to find shares to cover with....any thoughts?
Dennis Gartman has changed his tune about oil. The noted investor was short the commodity, but is not anymore.
"Is it the bottom? I don't know, but I think the time for being short has probably passed us by," Gartman said in an interview with CNBC's "Closing Bell."
Specifically, it was action in the futures market on Thursday that caused the editor and publisher of "The Gartman Letter" to move to the sidelines. The oil market was collapsing, yet futures for front months fell slightly less than the back months. That's a "very unusual circumstance," he said, because usually when the market collapses, the front months fall more dramatically than the back months.
“Low oil prices always triggered industry consolidation,” said Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Oppenheimer. It’s “survival of the fittest. Larger companies view this correction as a window of opportunity to make acquisitions that would improve their own operation and generate synergy benefits.”
I was encouraged by last weeks trading. We had that very heavy volume day last Monday -7M- shares and they were unsuccessful pushing it under $3.00. The last four days very fairly light compared to how it was trading for a few weeks. The price moved up to $3.42 a couple of times but $3.05 was the low for the week. Several days you could see the initial push down but yet the stock would recover end-of-day. I have also noticed a couple of articles the past couple of days suggesting it just might be time to stop shorting oil. Even Cramer is starting to say that the shorts may be going to the well once to often. Haven't seen this kind of sentiment in a long time. I think the recent talk about mergers is making the shorts a little nervous. Will be interesting to see what the week ahead will bring.
On November 13, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (or EIA) released inventory data for the week ended November 7.
Inventories decreased instead of increasing like analysts had expected. Analysts were expecting an inventory gain of 1.1 million barrels (or MMbbls). But inventories instead decreased by 1.7 MMbbls.
It's really hard to say. There are a multitude of possibilities. If XCO is the buyer I would think that the other entity would be a private company. Two publicly traded companies could be very complicated.