Maybe trippin, but what has happened to suppress the actual harmlessness and genuine benefits of the bestbest drug in its class is actually astounding, almost beyond belief. There are actually some people in the world who might find that interesting and they're called cardiologists.
Those thoughts are rambling through the thoughts of many curious doctors being shown ANCHOR. Why is this rep able to show me this when they don't have an indication approval? This isn't right. "You can call the company if you have questions". When doctors call the company they can find out what else there is to tell.
Shortyfishfry, more sane words could not be spoken. The trend is in tact. My take. Docs for the first time are hearing and seeing strong evidence that not only is Vascepa potentially a life saver, it's also safer than anything else. They get to see JELIS for Petes sake. That just started to happen. This coincides exactly with the largest one week jump that was not a week after a holiday. Heck, it looks like Amarin slowed down their sales visits the two weeks prior for training, so the jump might be even more impressive. AND the effects are geometric since the docs that switched to Vascepa will continue to do so, but a new slurry of docs will be added each week to add to the count. I hope I'm right.
Yes, would be good to have some outsized increases. They definitely started 1st A two weeks ago and scripts hopped. Now it's a holiday shortened week to mask a newfound raging current of increases. Next Friday should tell the real story. Sorry Swalchie, thinking 20,000 by week ending 9/25 is going to happen although nobody else seems to understand math.
Hey Swalchie, your prediction that it's all about R-It is coming true. We do know approximately when events hit interim and that's a three or four month window, Jan-Apr 2016. At least based on company statements and pure math. Hope your investing and health isis all going well.
Indeed, yet they have raised enough cash to be okay through 2016. In between we have two events that could raise the price dramatically. It's quite normal for the stock price to aggregate scenarios but Amarin is tending towards persistent pessism. The other side of that is unbridled enthusiasm which lurks just underneath this biotechs heart.
Perhaps so. I think the former FDA folks working at Pacira give this thing an aura of intrigue that wasn't existing until now. They might know things the current FDA would rather not have known. Considering the CEO sits on the board of AMRN, this is hardly coincidence.
Remember, Vascepa was a drug on a path to sell billions per year until the FDA pulled the rug out basically on a whim, science of the absurd. That in itself is obscene. Now AMRN struggles to keep the lights on, selling about $78 million in product this year while bearing the burden of an FDA mandated $100 million study to originally get ANCHOR but now gives them absolutely no extra dollars after the ADCOM circus.. I would say the FDA has richly earned this Pacira entry and what it portends and I think Abrams masterminded it all.
Yes indeed! The new 1st amendment case today is a taste of things to come and the FDA's window to stop the flood is closing. No other company has the safety profile AMRN used in oral arguments to sway Englemayer's position; but other companies won't need it if AMRN pursues this to a final permanent injunction. FDA doesn't lose anything other than their pride by giving Amarin ANCHOR based on new science and making this burgeoning lawsuit nightmare go away for another day.
$3 is probably going to happen, even if it's just a spike some day. Likely we test new highs before the 10/30 date. An ANCHOR type win would have this stock above $5 quickly. Beyond that everything is dependent on if and when REDUCE-IT succeeds or fails. If REDUCE-IT say has a 40% efficacy at interim, the market cap could hit about $4B quickly or about $20 and an early AMGN type chart afterwards. If R-It doesn't stop at interim, the 10/30 possible settlement becomes key. In any case, the market has given AMRN a rather pessimistic cap considering recent science and the fact R-It more than doubles the EPA from CHERRY and JELIS. As we know from ANCHOR, 2G to 4G equals more than doubled the efficacy.
Don't have any clue how this stock price stays in the twos. There are two run ups here and they're telegraphed. The possibility of settlement happens on or before 10/30. That is possibly Amarin getting ANCHOR which is a large event, worth billions. That's less than 60 days away. Then the Reduce-It run up which should already be underway. If interim shows high efficacy, the potential outcome is beyond any other drug trial in history. That's about 6 months away and if we get past 10/30 without qualifying events then Reduce-It is technically already a success. The price you see before you today is a gift. Don't invest more than can afford though.
They certainly have the right, but is it the right strategic move? Note that right after the possible settlement date of 10/30, in November Amarin will present CHERRY results. I see a plan coming together.
Burchroyann, Amarin and Kowa reps going around telling docs about ANCHOR would set off alarms in every office. Sans the Judges ruling, what the reps would be doing is patently illegal. Hundreds of calls would rain down on the FDA offices with docs looking for clarification. Then anger would ensue because most insurance cos make it more difficult to prescribe V over all of the inferior products. The FDA could probably extract a convenient manufactured claim or two from a few docs and go after Amarin for untruthful info and sue them. So, I think Amarin is holding off. Much more significant is the loss of power and potentially thousands of claims that would pour down upon the FDA should Amarin keep fighting and win a permanent injunction. The FDA almost has to settle and make this case go away. Also, the Judges PI creates a moment in time where potential Vascepa users can point to in the future as evidence against the FDA should REDUCE-IT prove successful, billions in potential lawsuits for people dying because the FDA's actions were deemed inappropriate by a future court, using the pattern of abuse methodology firmly established by the NCE and 1st amendment losses. Amarin might win everything soon including the R-It population. The recent Cherry study showing actual volume reductions is a nice out for the FDA.
In retrospect it seems Amarin didn't go after the 1st amendment PI to be able to tell the ANCHOR study benefits to doctors. They seem to have done it to get to this possibility of settlement.
Well, maybe I jumped the gun there. Looks like they've skirted any direct reference to the ANCHOR population while strongly hinting at it. The public cannot see the new pieces directed at docs unless they're following ihub or ST I guess
Have to admit I'm confused where scripts are going to go over the next couple of weeks and months. The FDA ending hostilities while looking to appease the Floyd Abrams monster seems to have allowed some changes on the Vascepa public information site. It's noticeable and available to the public, THE ANCHOR INFO, kind of in advertised form now. I might add I didn't know they would be allowed to do that?? That's confusing, I thought only doctors could hear this info in their offices. It might not mean a whole lot for scripts in the short term, but everybody with any triglyceride issue is going to come across this info soon, just accidentally now. The "possibility of settlement" and now this freedom to get the word out on their VASCEPA site points to the FDA thoroughly wanting this 1st amendment thing to go away. Coincidentally, the REDUCE-IT study keeps getting closer to interim and the deals possible at the end of October just tickle the imagination.
So, the FDA has changed their relationship with Amarin, from being adversary to collaborator. Those are quite different things.
Okay, on Amarin's they have some clarification of the joint decision from the FDA and Amarin. It means the FDA has obliterated any chance of appeal. Amarin us going to get something to stop the 1st Amendment case. If the FDA decides later they want to appeal, this joint decision will not help them with the court, it almost ensures defeat. So, Amarin can start their ANCHOR promotion with impunity with some additional labeling and/or market exclusivity adding on later in the year. In other words, this is good.
I posted a rather enthusiastic celebration of the settlement possibility news but it didn't post. Why does Yahoo do that? It's tremendous unfathomable news. Enjoy. V for everyone!!!
I deferred, what else can I say. Besides, they were working with the FDA on something so I guess they haven't been in a big hurry yet. Let's see what happens. Kind of a big market share gain though.