Unfortunately, it looks like a sell off looms again due to poor growth in script numbers for a two week period. We had this phenomena about a month ago when scripts didn't increase much and the stock got kicked to the gutter. Apparently two weeks of slower GROWTH has totally knock out three weeks of very impressive growth. By early June the company might easily be making about $1M/week and the growth will continue unabated. It's like a nightmare here where the truth is hidden behind any tiny morsel of bad news or fake bad news. Tier 2 folks are just starting now, but never mind, watch the hedgies kick the moorings out of AMRN for a while as the underlying value of the company skyrockets. This is amazing. At $11 AMRN is valued lower than Reliant was when it was bought for Lovaza. To think Vascepa will not capture some multiple of that is a mean trick the hedge community is levering on any long here. Current pricing does have some bearing on partnering agreements and possible buyouts. We are being mugged.
I believe the rather anemic script growth reports the last two weeks is the reason. We haven't had two weeks in a row where scripts grew this slowly. It ignores the rather robust growth from the previous three weeks and focuses solely on a short term negative. Growth goes in spurts when it comes to reporting after a few months, the launch is not slowing down, it's accelerating.
Should get NOA this week, very likely. Before it was delayed last June, the announcement of Reasons for Allowance for 899 pushed the stock up 14% in a day. The patent has been said to be like NCE except it protects Vascepa through 2030. It has also been said to make a BO more likely. I'm probably misguided here, can anyone elaborate on how important, (or not important), this patent is to AMRN?
Thank you Akanz. Not only is that informative, it's also to the moment. Really good post. I think the aggressiveness is due to insurance conversion.
Inconsistent supply of tap water for cheap or a ready supply of bottled purified water, we'll take that tap water. Congrats to the insurers who make a little more. Are those Amgen guys here because of some drug in development? Why did Raj sell so many shares while talking up Fusilev? This is an undervalued totally messed up thing going on here. By the way, sometimes that tap water goes dry or gets polluted.
Almost never written about is the possible mood elevation Vascepa has as a side effect, (every side effect of V is good, sometimes great). AMRN cannot report on the anti-depressive qualities of V because it was not studied for that. The mood enhancing is a precursor for great sales. When patients take V they don't have fish burps or aftertaste plus their mood is improved. Then their doctor sees the blood work; liking the results. Then docs get to hear about the other "side" effects, like reduced inflammation and better sleep. It's all good, the cycle of blood work combined with patient experience and physician revelation. It takes a little time to get doctors excited about a drug, especially a fish oil supplement as some would say, but Vascepa never fails any trial and won't in any doctors lab, it's just the best darn thing for reducing triglycerides without raising LDL-C and helping statins perform better. It might be fish oil to some, but now doctors know it as an approved RX treatment that works to help patients tremendously. It's easy to laugh at a product before it becomes.
I was looking for some connection yesterday but didn't look that hard. Thought there might be something. You may have landed on go, who knows.
I think hedge funds account for the largest short positions and can move around a stock pretty good. GIA is the perfect time to short when a small company is doing the selling. There will be a large cash burn and initial sales will almost always be suspect. None of that has much to do with the other dynamics going on here which are extremely positive. AMRN can turn on a dime and will likely do so in short order. June has been the primary target for hedges to turn with large amounts of call buying back in February and March which should line up with the aforementioned combo data and huge sales ramp. The big unknown is NCE. There is nothing in the literature stating the FDA cannot grant NCE today, in fact, the language change and science behind labeling V differently, saying it's Icosapent Ethyl is to be a prodrug of EPA, which Lovaza is not, and that gives what seems to great cover for such a decision. This has been the thought for some weeks now.
It appears that funds were net sellers of AMRN for the most recent quarter reported. Their activity knocked the stuffing out of the stock so now the news of this PAST activity is knocking the stuffing out of the stock. Meanwhile, tier 2 migration is taking place at breakneck speed, 3-6 MONTHS ahead of schedule, meaning sales will be making a huge leap very soon. JZ said he would not sell the company for under $30 and probably the biggest hang up there is the NCE decision, which may very well happen today. The 899 patent is in the hopper now and waiting to pop out as a Notice of Allowance probably Tuesday through Thursday next week, (it's an extremely broad patent and quite meaningful to future challenges). The combo data is likely not far behind the 899 patent. ANCHOR only gets closer with each passing day representing $2 - $10B in revenue potential or more. A drug with no known drawbacks, no reported problems and dozens of new doctors seeing evidence of its magic every single day in blood work, is literally setting the managed care physician population on fire. Patients taking the drug experience nothing but good to tremendous results. Wow, and the stock languishes around a one billion dollar market cap as if nothing is going on. Everything is going on. Rod Serling exits left.
A head and shoulders has formed with the chart looking positive for an extended period for the first time since December 2012. Means nothing except for chartists could now help share price. Also, similar curve to head and shoulders formed prior to explosion on April 18th, 2011 on ANCHOR news.
The playtime here for shorts consists of a company not wanting to sell out for under $20/share which they could likely do by picking up the phone. Almost wish they would on days like this and ruin the "sophisticated" smallish trades that unwind 4 days worth of gains in a few hours on nothing. Oh well, shorts win I guess, for now.
Down to the lows of the day with NCE likelihood never better in any month since approval. Let's see, looks like downside of $7 and upside of $15 very short term and we're near the low.
Your blood work will be excellent, it is the defining feature of Vascepa and why hundreds of doctors now want their colleagues to prescribe it to their patients. They've seen the results up close and personal. Consider the JELIS study provided the groundwork for all of the studies AMRN started. Not one study has contradicted any results from JELIS, not one. The disingenuous argument that we all have to wait until 2016 to see if REDUCE-IT actually helps extend lives and reduces heart disease ignores the concrete proof of JELIS, (and all studies already conducted by AMRN), that V does exactly that. It is truly a magic capsule.
Layers of possibilities for AMRN. The launch is its own animal while rumors started on twitter are another . The BofA rumor, while just a rumor, is right on target since changes made on the classification of V as a prodrug happens coincidentally with the methodology changes completed this month at the FDA. The FDA will make a decision and NCE does make AMRN more viable as a buyout candidate. And then there are more layers; combo data coming any moment, more tier 2 payers being reported whilst ANCHOR only gets closer and closer. Not a single report of any adverse reaction to V at any office, only great results. Those results are turning a lot of heads. 100's of doctors want to talk about the advantages of V now and get all of their colleagues prescribing. Almost as if the skeleton sales force has the most powerful sales force in force, the doctors.
Starting Jan. 2013: Explanation of the "slow" start: 5000 free samples were sent out to about 1000 doctors, many who put them aside for a bit maybe. Many doctors handed them out, free month long samples. Some patients just wanted Vascepa and most others were talked into it by their doctor. 275 sales reps with 10 years experience on average assaulted high prescribers so they would prescribe the non-LDL-C and non-afib drug. This didn't mean a patients insurance would cover a Vascepa prescription or deliver it those patients the way they pleased when they needed a refill. Many of those original free samplers never showed up for those refills, but probably would choose V in a second if it was available to order like Lovaza at the same price. The launch has continued with a month long free prescription program that is ending only three and a half months after introduction, (seems smoldering docs are turning into V prescribers and more insurers are coming on line). All those patients getting the free Vascepa off the website faced the same challenge as the original samplers, unable to get their V. Tier 2 migration and insurers coming on board bodes well for AMRN, example: RomneyCare known as MassHealth put V on their drug list today. The insurers can be like domino's picking up coverage and the speed with which the AMRN team has made everything happen with insurers from Jan. 2013 should be on the radar now. Anyhow, $2.3M in sales in the first quarter was an "anomaly" quoting JZ at the last CC. Anomaly means a deviation from the norm, so I believe he's saying future sales trajectories cannot be deduced from the 1Q numbers. The barriers for launch were very high but they are receding 3-6 months ahead of schedule.
You would think the titans of investing would understand AMRN's strategy, (yes AMRN, the same folks who gave the world Lovaza and know the details of this exact market inside and out). They have a hand holding period going on here, giving doctors a chance to sample Vascepa, educating them, while making sure insurance will cover the drug. This is the pre period. The post period is coming later, unlike drugs like Qysmia which is already being advertised in the media, (if you look at Yahoo ads on these pages you probably will see the drug advertised). Once Vascepa is advertised to the populace, the anger over being on Lovaza when V has been available all along will be palpable. "So doctor, you've risked heart disease and afib for me because why?" That is why there is a pre period, so doctors can understand and adjust before having to answer patients difficult questions. Vascepa, when advertised, will grow so fast it makes me wonder if anyone selling a share of AMRN understands what is to come? It's already a certainty Vascepa sales will explode and all this talk about partnering, etc..., may mean nothing to AMRN the moment they become self-sustaining. Why let a potential $10B a year drug go to anyone else for cheap? That is also why a buyout at a staggering price might hit at any moment, BP cannot expect to catch any reasonable break on price once sales reach sustaining levels. Perhaps NCE this week will be the push they need.