With 20500 patient years in the books with RRR between 5.2-5.9 for placebo arm we're at 18-40% efficacy TODAY if 967 hasn't occurred yet. The FDA opened up the R-It study last year to check safety and found no serious side effects. So, pretty good chance R-It succeeds. The first amendment "capitulation" by AMRN doesn't help them much without a successful R-It, but with success that first amendment deal for two new indications to tout a year is mind boggling in added value. If you've ever seen The Big Short, investors in Amarin are suffering through what amounts to fraudulent activity before everything change, like the people who saw the fall of the housing market but kept getting burned by the ratings agencies.
If Vascepa shows efficacy for 150-500 trigs and gets that label, the 1st amendment win for 2 off label uses a year becomes a much bigger victory. Worth many billions.
The words from JT describing high prescribing physicians reaction to how they are responding to changing prescribing practices of Vascepa after seeing Jelis. Like they smoked a potent blunt. The last set of script numbers on the holiday shortened week tend to indicate that very thing is happening in spades. Friday's numbers this week are worth watching. Could be very high.
For the next four years there is only one company, Amarin, that can promote off label and add new off label uses. Anyone ever think about dry eyes and hemodialysis patients? This ruling is unbelievable.
10 million patients would be about $28 billion per year in revenue or about $84 billion in cap at 3x sales or about a $400 share price. Just based on your assumption.
You got me Swalchie, I was being lazy on a Mother's Day. The actual quote from Steven Ketchum was "it's fairly remarkable how closely event rates in this study track to our initial estimates".
Just finished reading through the last conference call. Found something. I think they said something like this, "it's remarkable how close the Reduce It study is tracking our estimates". Let's break that down: Remarkable means astonishing, phenomenal, etc... Tracking means over the course of time, so the results have been tracking their graphs in almost a perfect harmony from start to finish. Third, they probably based many of their estimates from a hand picked group of people that have similar readings to the sub-group in JELIS that showed a 50%+ decrease in CVE. That sentence in this rather unheralded CC might be the most important grouping of words in any CC.
Hey Swalchie, I want to compliment you. It is, as you said, all about Reduce-It. Anyhow, I posted this without any knowledge of the PR coming.