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Jack in the Box Inc. Message Board

freshbread4u 5 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Jun 3, 2002
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  • the earnings are out! there were record sales and profits. EPS was .0267 which is great!

  • Reply to

    Tax selling

    by richard_presley77 Apr 14, 2014 3:07 PM
    freshbread4u freshbread4u Apr 14, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    This is not tax selling.

  • Reply to

    Bretton Fund commentary on AMNF

    by morokko65 Mar 6, 2014 1:43 PM
    freshbread4u freshbread4u Mar 7, 2014 3:27 PM Flag

    For what it is worth, I think that you are low in your estimates. Remember that we will have an entire year with the new equipment in place which ought to reduce unit costs and increase revenues. The Asian sales that had been declining have reversed course and are growing quickly again. My estimate is for more like 34-36 MM in revenue and in the 13-14 cent range for EPS. That should bring the price to $2.50.
    I also doubt that any takeover is likely. The management does not want to sell and a 15-20% premium like you mention just would not take the day IMO. A higher offer, however, does not make sense. I think we just collect our dividends and hopefully watch the price rise. It won't go up like it did in 2013 most likely, but it should keep rising.

  • Reply to

    Thoughts on buyout

    by bellbell63 Feb 10, 2014 5:18 PM
    freshbread4u freshbread4u Feb 11, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    Your analysis is off a bit. First of all, nothing close to a majority of shares are held by the founder or his family. You can take a look at the roster of insiders and large holders if you need confirmation. Second, many large holders do not worry about taxes; they have the stock in retirement accounts or they are institutions. Third, a big batch of stock which is held by the family was inherited when Bill Armanino passed away and it had a stepped up basis as a result. On top of all this, for people who have been long term holders, the tax is not as high as you estimate, and the ability to replace a relatively 3.2% dividend return is not difficult. Look at LNCO which gives a return over 9% that is a qualified dividend and which also has options which can be used easily to double the return. If that is too risky, look at something as stodgy as AT&T which pays close to twice what AMNF returns in a qualified dividend. Or how about muni bond CEFs which are widely available and which pay 6.5% tax free? It is true that a large holder who also gets a large salary from the company might find the income hard to replace, but people in that position a far from in control at Armanino.

  • Reply to

    earnings week....

    by wrb335 Feb 9, 2014 9:09 PM
    freshbread4u freshbread4u Feb 10, 2014 4:13 PM Flag

    The last report on the new equipment had it going into operation during the first quarter of 2014. There is not likely to be much news on that front. The management rarely mentions anything that postdates the end of the quarter. It is also extremely unlikely that they will specifically discuss the new products. We will hear generalities but few specifics. It is too bad since the company has a lot about which it could talk.

    I do agree that the 4th quarter has not been the strongest of the year. If we have any figure at 2.7 cents EPS or higher, it will bode very well for 2014 and will give you the information that you wanted about the impact of the new products (most likely cause). Earnings at that level should send the stock above 2.10 in my opinion.

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