For once, I suspect Blodgett will be proven CORRECT on his assessment of AAPL's monster quarter already being priced in. We shall see.
-Frieberg (long AAPL as a LT investment).
I am making no claim to knowing what earnings will or will not be. My plan is to hold GILD until I see at least 145-150 per share. IMHO, not all that far away. This stock is NOT without risk, of course. But, as the saying goes....if you can't take the heat, stay outta the kitchen !
Just sharing for those who do not have access to Barrons:
January 26, 2015, 10:46 A.M. ET
Gilead Sciences: Time to Worry About a Tough 2015?
By Ben Levisohn
UBS analyst Matthew Roden and team think Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) 2015 hepatitis-C sales could have a tough time beating analyst expectations, even as they remain optimistic about the final quarter of 2014:
Despite upward revisions for large caps throughout 2014, 4Q numbers still look beatable on EPS, although the strength of the dollar creates a top-line headwind (USD +6.2% vs. EUR q/q and +9.0% y/y) while earnings are well hedged. In large cap, we are above 4Q consensus on Gilead Sciences, Celgene (CELG), and Amgen (AMGN)…However, guidance will be key, and we expect management teams to guide conservatively as usual, though initial guidance has been broadly beaten in recent years…
Gilead Sciences: We are $150m above cons on worldwide HCV sales on Harvoni demand/stocking/nonretail utilization and Sovaldi OUS, driving EPS leverage. Despite our optimism in Gilead’s HCV franchise, we are $1.5bn below Street expectations for 2015 Harvoni sales (UBSe $8.1bn, consensus $9.6bn) and expect conservative sales guidance.
Gilead is scheduled to release earnings early next month.
Greek elections ? Maybe about as important as Cuba or Somalia. Focus on what is important to a company's stock price: earnings.
Now...if we could just see the stock price go UP instead of down. Looks like SNY is simply being traded short term...stuck in mid 40's. We gotta get back to 50 level. This company is way undervalued.
Fell free to buy a Samsung. We don't care.
I simply think so much focus is on HepC that the total portfolio of intellectual property and potential new molecules, of BOTH of these companies, is being ignored. I am not only interested in the HepC market, but also view both these companies as having superior scientists and think tanks. And, I think you are underestimating the potential revenue that ABBV will garner from HepC. GILD has effectively drawn attention to this issue, and ABBV and others will, essentially, take advantage of that, one way or another. JNJ, BMY and others will not just idly sit by and watch GILD take all of that market share. JMHO.
In any event, no complaints here about GILD. Fabulous future, indeed.
Well, I did take a sizable position in Sanofi about 2 months back. (SNY) We'll see how that works out. Also, it will be interesting to see if the QE being put out their, by Draghi, helps to boost these European stocks. Good point you make about pharma. Merck also looks like a decent play for the next year or two for those who want some yield + a healthcare stock. JMHO.
I think the cogent, cautious investor, interested in profiting from HepC, has to be invested in BOTH GILD and ABBV at current levels. Also, I think BMY is looking very tempting at this point as an additional long term play.
I am talking about INVESTING, not short term trading. Hope I have not alienated too many people here. I get a little nervous when I see so many cheerleaders emotionally expounding a stock that they are in love with, without regard to any potential competition from other entities.
-Frieberg, huge fan of both GILD and ABBV....both are best of breed companies with great scientists and intellectual property.
Up 200% ? A triple ? Highly unlikely overnight for any stock. Let's just focus on getting back to maybe even 8 dollars first. Another year ?
PlEASE FORGIVE ME if this was already posted:
January 20, 2015, 1:44 P.M. ET
Can Gilead Sciences Beat Hep-C Estimates?
By Ben Levisohn
Evercore ISI’s Mark Schoenebaum thinks that, indeed, Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) sales of its hepatitis-C treatments could beat market expectations despite the ongoing price war with AbbVie (ABBV). He explains how:
We’ve received several requests for our 4Q’14 estimate of Harvoni / Sovaldi sales. Based on IMS data, we believe Gilead’s HCV 4Q14 US sales could come in at or above consensus’ $2.8Bn…
An important part of this analysis, recall, is you have to account for any inventory build, but more importantly adjust IMS implied sales with a capture rate. IMS implied sales historically (using IMS’s restated data) for Sovaldi have only captured ~80% of actual sales. This capture rate has been fairly consistent over the last 4 quarters…
HARVONI + SOVALDI
1. Assuming *NO INVENTORY* impact, $1.2Bn Harvoni + $1.0Bn Sovaldi = $2.2Bn
2. *WITH INVENTORY*, ~$1.7Bn Harvoni + $841MM = $2.6Bn
3. With capture rate of 79-78%, $2.2Bn Harvoni + $1.1Bn Sovaldi = $3.3Bn (thus once you account for net inventory build and capture rate, that adds $1.1Bn)
How does this compare to *US* consensus?
1. $2.2Bn Harvoni (IMS implied) vs $1.5Bn (US consensus)
2. $1.1Bn Sovaldi (IMS implied) vs $1.3Bn (US consensus)
3. $3.3Bn Harvoni + Sovaldi (IMS implied) vs. $2.8Bn (US consensus)
Of course, Schoenebaum offers a caveat:
PLEASE NOTE: ***The combined impact of inventory and capture rate adds $1.1Bn to IMS implied sales*** If our assumptions are wrong, Gilead could, of course, miss consensus.
Shares of Gilead Sciences have gained 2.6% to $103.31 at 1:59 p.m. today, while AbbVie has fallen 1.9% to $63.34.
Be careful on what you think oil will do. Nobody has yet got it figured out. Just make oil bets with money you can afford to lose.
Good ol' S&W ! Never count 'em out ! See you @ 15 again soon. Well...gotta run. Got a bunch of .45's to load for a match....
When has Apple EVER guided HIGHER ? I cannot ever recall a case in the last decade or so. ??