I think we're worth 10-12 per share, minimum. Sure is frustrating holding this thing, however.
Been holding core shares since Dec. 2013. GLTY.
OK. I will hold you to this analysis ! (Just kidding, of course...). We are all gambling and speculating. Every single one of us who holds this risky little oinker is taking huge risks. But, it has the potential for fat rewards...IF...we all get LUCKY.
Great post. I think we are pretty much on the same page, albeit I think Ariad is worth 9-10 dollars per share, even under the most pessimistic scenario. JMHO.
2B was a decent offer. It may take another year or so for a substantially better offer to arise. Now we can have fun watching the stock waffle back to under 7 again.
It was fun while it lasted.
I can maybe rationalize 12 dollars, but 20 ? I find it difficult to justify a valuation of 20 dollars per share, given that Ariad has a black box drug (Iclusig) and brig, which has yet to complete phase II.
How do you come up with 20 as an "easy takeout" ?
It appears to be true (i.e. no others suitors in the lineup to acquire Ariad). Longs need to be really careful about getting carried away here with abject jubilation. BXLT may walk away from a potential purchase if they think that Denner is extorting them. We shall see. I am hoping for 11-12 dollar range, but maybe even that is stretching it. Nonetheless, I am NOT going to sell here. I like the way the stock is holding onto 9's (I did not think it would).
You are correct. Only limit orders will be accepted AH, AND...keep in mind that AH orders are limited-volume exact matches. So, for example, if you want to buy 3000 sh. ARIA @, say 9.00, but there are only 1200 at that price, your trade will not execute.
You will only be able to buy 3000 @ 9 if there are more than 3000 available AT that exact price point. AH trading is fraught with risky anomalies; I'd avoid AH transactions if at all possible.
JMHO (learned the hard way).
-Frieberg, still long ARIA, and refuse to sell, even though I whine about the "Denner greed" that is rocking this stock. I still do NOT trust this guy, and believe he is simply in it all for himself...CERTAINLY not you and me.
If you need income, dollar cost average into XOM and a good MLP with a decent yield, like ETP.
Exxon is highly unlikely to reduce its dividend, and it is very safe. Also consider AT&T (T), yielding over 5%, and AEP. These are safe yields, and while you can never "catch the bottom", XOM is CHEAP...using nearly any metric you want to use.
I view this as good news, ultimately. THe way I reckon it, even with Denner's meddling, the company will remain solvent, and those shorts will have to buy back those borrowed margined shares at some point.
I wonder if we hit the 6's by the EOW. Hope not...very discouraging, indeed. GLTA longs.
-Frieberg, still painfully holding Our Beloved Ariad.
I think it is simply a result of Wall Street logic at work: i.e. stocks that are NOT showing immediate short term promise are being sold in order to get into more lucrative short term opportunities. Nothing new here. In another month, we could see ARIA at 6.50, or...we could also see it @ 10+. It is that baffling. This stock is totally unpredictable. THat is what happens when we own a company that is tied to one or two quasi-marketable molecules. That is is the RISK, and hence...also the future GAIN if the Company can figure out how to execute. Maybe I should substitute "Denner" in place of "company", even though I am not keen on this guy, for reasons I have elucidated in detail many weeks ago.
CHEERS. Drink a double IPA on my behalf.
-Frieberg in hot, humid Appalachia
It will interesting to see how many frackers go belly up as oil continues its secular decline. Here in my state of Ohio, most fracked gas needs to see prices much higher than we're seeing now, in both oil and NG, just to break even. Many companies are forced to idle drilling sites as they are hemorrhaging cash.
CLD has a great chance of survival because 1) it has low sulfur coal that can 2) be cheaply extracted and 3) the extraction methods are much SAFER than CAPP mines and 4) COAL will NOT go away for a LONG, long time (due to so many plants that will continue to burn it and 5) Cloud, wisely, did NOT get mired into horrendous levels of debt like so many others. Coal got a nice respite today as NG spot rose a bit. A cold fall and winter, and CLD should be able to do a double from here in a few quarters. WAY, way oversold to ludicrous levels.