PS. I should add, I started to "lighten-up" in June and was all but out by early July. Again, I did not and do not know the reason for the decline but my charts started to "ring bells".--I am no gambler.
I doubt that anyone has the real answer as to just where this market is going. --I have no crystal ball !!---However, I note that the metals (Alcoa, FCX, etc .) began their decline in mid 2014.---I suggest that, regardless of the cap weighted averages, this was an indication that at least something was happening.---Copper & aluminum are truly essential materials for expansion. --when demand for them weakens things are usually slowing down.---Let's just hope it's just a "slowing" and not a "stopping".---Unfortunately these indicators do not tell us just what or where the problem is but just that there "may" be problems on the horizon.--We know Europe & the emerging markets are in trouble. I believe the question is "Can we avoid the contagion?" --Only time will tell.--
I suggest that this is probably a "Dead Cat Bounce".--However, not I or most (?) others have any realistic explanation for the future.----The large caps (Apple, FB, Google, etc.) have kept the averages UP. However, the mid-caps have not followed. "The Generals are leading but the troops are NOT following"---The weakness began to show in late May and early June.--Became more pronounced in July & August and continues.---I observe that there is "trouble" just about everywhere. China is "slowing", Russia is in recession (depression?), GB, France & Spain are on the cusp of recession. Even Germany is borderline.--Frankly, I suspect that the world may have simply reached a point where world productivity is greater than demand.--Computerization and automation have completely changed the balance between demand and (labor) supply.---The jobs were not "outsourced" they were simply "eliminated" . --In the past industrial innovation eliminated some jobs but created others and demand.--Not so this time around.---The "product" is not enhanced by the innovation, it is actually "made" by the new device.--The worker is completely eliminated. --Consider that much of the "labor intensive" work which was previously "outsourced" has returned to the US BUT is flawlessly produced by automation.--NO (or few) workers.---Can we be seeing a world-wide dramatic change in the relationship between demand and how that "demand" is satisfied??--If so the "poor" countries will soon be a "sad case" and the "rich countries" will surely suffer a stagnant or lower standard of living for most of their workers. Fortunately the US is a very large producer of "food products" the production of which is already largely automated.---I just don't know what will happen to the others.